Premier Danielle Smith seemed to be juggling several strategies with her complicated 37-word referendum question regarding Alberta’s status in Canada.
You don’t propose a vote with competing choices of staying a Canadian province or starting the process for a future independence vote unless you’re trying to manage multiple tactical issues at once.
She aimed to put something on the ballot that would be less likely to face constitutional challenges regarding the necessity of consulting First Nations, after two court defeats on straightforward questions about leaving Canada.
No doubt she wanted to appease the significant separatist faction within her UCP base to lower the chances they might seek to replace her as party leader and premier.
She probably also wanted a way to maintain alignment with the majority of Albertans who prefer remaining part of Canada.
A risky approach has been quietly discussed among federalist United Conservatives, and is now coming into view.
Let separatists have their vote. Let them lose by a lot. And let’s move forward from there.
The premier subtly hinted at this during Friday’s news conference. She framed the referendum’s stay option as a “vote to remain in Canada [and] put an end to this debate.”
Technology Minister Nate Glubish echoed this sentiment on social media. “A strong vote to stay in Canada this fall will put this question to rest and let us all focus on building the best possible Alberta AND Canada.”
This prediction was expressed more bluntly by Vitor Marciano, chief of staff for the energy minister and formerly a top strategist for Smith: “There will be a vote. Separatists will lose. Badly. They have not convinced Albertans.”
Many separatist activists might not appreciate that Smith and her close advisors are crafting what they see as a doomed referendum question in hopes of diminishing their movement.
However, there’s another risk tied to this strategy. History doesn’t favor them.
Mitch Sylvestre holds boxes of signed petitions for a separation referendum before submitting them to Elections Alberta offices in Edmonton. His group claims more than 300,000 Albertans signed the petition, but that number hasn’t been verified. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)
The cautionary tale here is Brexit.
U. K. Prime Minister David Cameron called the 2016 referendum primarily to placate European Union skeptics within his Conservative Party, hoping it would fail. That decision backfired dramatically, and Britain has been grappling with its political and economic fallout ever since.
But even unsuccessful separatist efforts don’t eliminate the large movements supporting them, despite what their opponents might wish.
“Elsewhere it hasn’t worked like that,” says André Lecours, a University of Ottawa political scientist who has researched independence movements globally. Quebec’s 1980 sovereignty vote lost badly with just 40 percent support. Parti Québécois Premier René Lévesque famously responded “à la prochaine fois” (until next time) to an enthusiastic crowd full of supporters, and his movement nearly succeeded in 1995 when they tried again. Quebecers may revisit this issue if PQ wins government this fall.![]()
Despite referendum losses in 1980 and 1995, the Quebec separatist movement has remained a major force in the province’s politics. This image is from 2025. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press)
“They’ve never been in politics and they get involved in politics for the first time for the cause of secession and they stay there.” Around 20-30 percent of Albertans have long believed that separation is necessary; however, until recently those sentiments lacked political direction until UCP’s citizen initiative process provided them with an outlet.
In Alberta alone thousands spent four months gathering signatures for secession petitions many are expected continue campaigning ahead of October’s referendum date making them advocates throughout much of year-something some allies hope will fade away afterward.
“Even if they lose,” said Daniel Béland director at Mc Gill Institute studying Canadian issues,”the hardcore fifteen-to-twenty percent population really believes it’ll never happen.” “They won’t change their vision-the idea that Alberta should secede remains firm.” He added they’ll likely push education regarding perceived flaws within Canada or await further unfavorable federal policies.”WATCH | Alberta separatist vote will sow division; Nenshi warns:<img src="https://ontariochronicle. ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/1779498396_522_default. jpg" alt="" class="thumbnail" loading="lazy"/
A more decisive defeat could prove disheartening than previous outcomes experienced by Quebecers or Scots alike accordingto Lecours citing additional factors causing potential decline following losses: absence grounding rooted along linguistic/ethnic lines common among most other secession initiatives coupled lack formalized organizations needed propel forces forward into governing positions subsequently enabling further referenda pursuits.”
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“Elsewhere it hasn’t worked like that,” says André Lecours, a University of Ottawa political scientist who has researched independence movements globally. Quebec’s 1980 sovereignty vote lost badly with just 40 percent support. Parti Québécois Premier René Lévesque famously responded “à la prochaine fois” (until next time) to an enthusiastic crowd full of supporters, and his movement nearly succeeded in 1995 when they tried again. Quebecers may revisit this issue if PQ wins government this fall.
Despite losing referendums in both years, Quebec’s desire for sovereignty continues strongly into current times.
Scotland’s initial independence vote fell short in 2014 with just under 45 percent support; however, Lecours notes that their nationalist movement remains active since then. The Scottish National Party has maintained power continuously since then and independence has often come close to majority support in polls over recent years.
It’s not just leaders keeping supporters engaged; it’s activists who dedicate months organizing for causes-they don’t simply abandon their goals after setbacks, Lecours pointed out.“They’ve never been in politics and they get involved in politics for the first time for the cause of secession and they stay there.” Around 20-30 percent of Albertans have long believed that separation is necessary; however, until recently those sentiments lacked political direction until UCP’s citizen initiative process provided them with an outlet.
In Alberta alone thousands spent four months gathering signatures for secession petitions many are expected continue campaigning ahead of October’s referendum date making them advocates throughout much of year-something some allies hope will fade away afterward.
“Even if they lose,” said Daniel Béland director at Mc Gill Institute studying Canadian issues,”the hardcore fifteen-to-twenty percent population really believes it’ll never happen.” “They won’t change their vision-the idea that Alberta should secede remains firm.” He added they’ll likely push education regarding perceived flaws within Canada or await further unfavorable federal policies.”WATCH | Alberta separatist vote will sow division; Nenshi warns:<img src="https://ontariochronicle. ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/1779498396_522_default. jpg" alt="" class="thumbnail" loading="lazy"/
Separatist movements cause extraordinary harm says Alberta opposition leader
NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi voiced concerns about divisive actions such as those seen during Brexit emphasizing fears around holding referendums potentially tearing apart Canada.A more decisive defeat could prove disheartening than previous outcomes experienced by Quebecers or Scots alike accordingto Lecours citing additional factors causing potential decline following losses: absence grounding rooted along linguistic/ethnic lines common among most other secession initiatives coupled lack formalized organizations needed propel forces forward into governing positions subsequently enabling further referenda pursuits.”
“It lacks any existing party structure currently backing these efforts,” he noted referring dissatisfaction experienced across dissident groups aiming build something larger than fringe parties like Republican Party or Wildrose Independence Movement forming ties yet again adapting approaches towards leading openly shifting stances pro-separation candidates alongside leadership changes altogether.”
“Could UCP transform itself entirely sovereign party?”Béland wonders aloud. Opposition Leader Naheed Nenshi suggests they’re already becoming one-a sentiment shared amongst certain disgruntled separatists perhaps!
‘Hundreds found ways gather signatures demonstrating significant interest levels exist thus targeting mobilization pushing voters actively participating throughout scheduled elections.’ Should such attempts prove unsuccessful expect leaders devising alternative plans ensuring continued engagement politically promoting objectives down road seeking success next time around too!
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