Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Atlanta Braves already own this series, and Thursday provides the chance to make it emphatic. Atlanta enters at 42-20, atop the NL East, after taking the first two games from Toronto, 4-3 and 7-3. The Braves have won six of eight, improved to 17-2-1 in completed series, and are chasing their first sweep since early May. Toronto’s timing could hardly be worse. The Blue Jays climbed back to .500, immediately lost four straight, and now face Atlanta’s ace during a rotation shortage. Wednesday captured the gap between these clubs. Toronto reached Grant Holmes for early traffic, scored three runs overall, then watched Mauricio Dubón and Ozzie Albies turn Atlanta’s two-out opportunities into a pair of three-run homers. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Atlanta Braves and the Toronto Blue Jays. Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays. Chris Sale has made difficult assignments look increasingly ordinary. He enters 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts across 67 innings. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, then closed May with a 1.69 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His batted-ball profile is even less comfortable for Toronto than the traditional line. Sale has allowed an 86.8 mph average exit velocity, 29.6% hard-hit rate, 6.8% barrel rate, .255 wOBA, and .284 xwOBA. The Blue Jays own a .645 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. Since May 5, that split has deteriorated to .186/.267/.350 with a .617 OPS and 59 strikeouts in 248 plate appearances. Sale is arriving with premium form against the precise offensive weakness Toronto has failed to repair. Atlanta’s most dangerous offensive match remains Matt Olson, whose 17th home run broke Tuesday’s tie. Olson is producing a .389 wOBA and .380 xwOBA, backed by a 93.7 mph average exit velocity, 52.5% hard-hit rate, and 14.8% barrel rate. His ability to drive mistakes gives Atlanta its most dependable inning-breaking threat against Toronto’s improvised staff. Michael Harris II has been even louder underneath his results, carrying a .391 xwOBA, 93.2 mph average exit velocity, 53.8% hard-hit rate, and 15.5% barrel rate. Ronald Acuña Jr. has a .397 xwOBA and 14.7% barrel rate after recently punctuating Atlanta wins with a grand slam and a two-homer afternoon. Albies supplied his 10th homer Wednesday and has driven in five runs across the first two games. Atlanta owns a .251/.316/.419 line with 28 homers against lefties, giving the lineup several ways to punish Toronto once its opener exits. Toronto’s danger is genuine, although increasingly concentrated. Nathan Lukes has returned from vertigo and immediately become the club’s hottest hitter, batting .471/.509/.647 across his last 15 games. He went 2-for-4 with his first homer Wednesday, raising his season line to .317 with a .787 OPS. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains the Blue Jays’ best answer to a left-handed ace, batting .325/.462/.500 with two homers across 52 plate appearances against southpaws. Kazuma Okamoto brings the clearest one-swing threat, leading Toronto with 13 homers while producing a 92.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.2% hard-hit rate, and 15.1% barrel rate. His 32.1% strikeout rate also places him directly in Sale’s put-away territory. Toronto can create a dangerous inning through Lukes, Guerrero, and Okamoto. The lineup has struggled to extend that threat against lefties, and Sale has denied opponents the quality contact required for crooked innings.
Blue Jays vs. Braves pick, best bet
Mason Fluharty is a better opening obstacle than his 3.97 ERA suggests. The left-hander has held hitters to an 85.1 mph average exit velocity, 29.3% hard-hit rate, 5.2% barrel rate, and .227 xwOBA. He has also allowed one run over 11 2/3 innings since the beginning of May. The complication for Toronto arrives after his abbreviated assignment. Fluharty has not recorded more than four outs in any appearance this season, with Chad Dallas a possible bulk option after posting a 4.50 ERA and 38-to-13 strikeout-to-walk line across 36 Triple-A innings. Simeon Woods Richardson, reacquired after posting a 7.74 ERA with Minnesota, will not arrive in time to help tonight. Atlanta has its own lineup loss, with Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy sidelined and Austin Wynns newly acquired for catching depth. Baldwin’s .418 xwOBA, 53.8% hard-hit rate, and 18.6% barrel rate will be missed. Even so, Toronto must navigate Olson, Harris, Acuña, and Albies for nine innings with an unsettled pitching arrangement. The full-game market prices Atlanta as an overwhelming winner at -266, leaving the run line as the useful side. Braves team total over 4.5 at -120 asks for a fifth run while Atlanta is missing Baldwin and facing Fluharty’s strong opening work. Blue Jays team total under 2.5 at +100 carries obvious Sale appeal, though one Guerrero-Okamoto swing can ruin an otherwise correct read. Atlanta -1.5 at -117 captures both decisive edges. Sale can keep Toronto’s limited damage pocket from controlling the game, while the Braves can create separation without needing an offensive eruption. Robert Suarez has worked in both games of the series, though Raisel Iglesias remains a premium ninth-inning option after resting Wednesday. The Blue Jays have to manufacture an answer to Sale, then survive Atlanta’s top-order power after Fluharty leaves. Best bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-117). Predicted score: Braves 4, Blue Jays 1.Best bet: Braves -1.5 (-115) vs. Blue Jays
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