Our latest Abacus Data tracking poll is here, and the main figure stands out clearly.
The Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives 47% to 33%.
This 14-point lead is the biggest we’ve seen for the Liberals since Mark Carney took office, and it’s also the largest Liberal lead recorded in our polling since May 2017. Among Canadians who are definitely voting, the gap widens even more: 50% Liberal compared to 33% Conservative.
However, I think the most crucial number in this poll isn’t 47. It could be 46.
That’s the percentage of Canadians who now consider Donald Trump and his administration as one of the three biggest issues facing our country.
The rising cost of living still ranks highest at 65%. The economy follows at third place with 39%. But after that, interest drops off quite quickly.
Trump is drawing a significant amount of Canadians’ focus.
This is important because it creates a political landscape that heavily favors the Liberals.
Among those who identify Trump as a top-three issue, 68% believe that the Liberals are best equipped to handle him and his administration. Only 12% opt for the Conservatives.
Just two weeks ago, that breakdown was at 62% for the Liberals and 18% for Conservatives.
As Trump takes on a more central role in public discussions, the Liberal advantage on this matter is expanding.
There’s another figure that sheds light on this situation.
A mere 10% of Canadians have a positive impression of Donald Trump. A striking eighty-two percent view him negatively.
This discontent isn’t limited to just Liberal, NDP, or Bloc supporters.
Even among current Conservative backers, about 60% hold a negative opinion of Trump while only 25% see him positively.
T typically when politics become polarized, those involved tend to split along party lines as well. However, that’s not really happening with Trump. Canadians may disagree over Mark Carney or Pierre Poilievre. They might argue about immigration policies, climate change strategies, taxes, and government spending.
But there’s broad agreement when it comes to views on Trump. And this consensus is altering how citizens perceive their government.
The approval rating for Carney’s administration stands at an impressive 59%, with only 27% expressing disapproval. Carney himself has a net impression score of +27 whereas Pierre Poilievre sits at -13.
Meanwhile, there’s an upswing in optimism about Canada overall.
Now forty-five percent believe Canada is moving in a positive direction compared to just fifteen percent who feel similarly about global conditions.
This notable thirty-point optimism gap represents one of the most intriguing results from our poll
Canadians aren’t growing more hopeful because they sense global safety improving
Their increased optimism regarding Canada may actually stem from heightened feelings of global danger
This distinction carries weight
The current political narrative isn’t merely about how Liberals are leading
It reflects how many Canadians perceive an external threat, dislike its representative figurehead associated with it,, and increasingly regard their federal government as standing guard against this threat.
This presents any government with a strong position
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