By Sarah Ferris, David Wright, CNN
(CNN) – With just four weeks left until Election Day, an increasing number of House Republicans are privately worried that their chances of keeping the majority are slipping away. They have started to strategize on how to minimize any possible Democratic gains.
Within the House GOP, members have been alarmed by President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings in their internal polls – even in areas that usually vote Republican – over the last two weeks, according to more than a dozen sources familiar with these discussions.
The House GOP is now entering a phase of damage control. Republicans are talking about reallocating funds from races they consider too challenging to win, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey, and an open seat in Nebraska, as shared by three people who know about these talks.
However, the GOP still has a significant cash advantage and not all members feel pessimistic. Speaker Mike Johnson remains “absolutely convinced” he can maintain control of the House and isn’t writing off any seats “off his board,” as per a political aide. Johnson recently returned from New Jersey and is gearing up for a rally with Miller-Meeks in Iowa next week, according to his team.
The campaign arm of the House GOP also strongly disputes claims that they have lost the majority.
The growing unease among Republicans highlights a tough national landscape that has raised concerns across various elections. Senate Republicans find themselves defending red districts like Kansas – with control of both chambers of Congress hanging in the balance. Meanwhile, Trump is on a nationwide campaign tour making stops in competitive regions like Ohio and solidly red states such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Alabama.
“There are many close races right now; it’s tough to make predictions,” retiring GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse said this week about his party’s prospects but admitted that “Affordability is a big deal. People notice gas prices every single day.”
While Newhouse pointed out that his party has tried addressing cost-of-living challenges, he acknowledged that “There are just too many factors making things difficult right now for rural America – which I can speak to specifically – but for Americans everywhere.”
Many Republicans confess to CNN that the negative national situation-driven by rising diesel costs, persistent inflation, and growing opposition to the Iran war-is mostly beyond their control at this late stage of campaigning. Their strategy now centers on limiting Democrats’ potential majority size-to make governing nearly impossible for whoever might become House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries next year.
Johnson’s historically narrow majority-the smallest since before World War II-has caused significant challenges for GOP leaders; Johnson has struggled to manage floor votes effectively multiple times. Republicans want Jeffries to face similar issues.
Several insiders stated their objective is to restrict Jeffries’ margin to under 10 seats. If they achieve this goal, one GOP strategist summarized: “What the f**k are you going to get done over there?”
Most Republicans don’t anticipate a complete loss where Democrats take more than 30 seats. Some believe there’s still a way to maintain their slim majority-especially if gas prices decrease significantly over the next four weeks. Party leaders feel particularly optimistic about two incumbents in battleground districts: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania and Mike Lawler from New York-both representing areas won by Kamala Harris in 2024.
Yet there’s increasing worry among GOP members and staff regarding safeguarding regions that haven’t voted Democrat for decades-districts Trump won by substantial margins which suddenly look competitive due to incumbents rarely facing serious challenges during general elections.
As early October approaches, Republicans plan on leveraging their significant cash advantage toward supporting strong incumbents while ramping up efforts against key targets such as Rep. Marcy Kaptur from Ohio’s 9th District and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez from Washington’s 3rd-spending heavily against Democrats.
Additionally, large super PACs linked with the GOP help create protection around their strongest territories against potential losses-with Trump-associated groups investing in previously unreachable districts for Democrats which are now competitive like Colorado’s 5th District or Kentucky’s 6th District and Montana’s 1st District.
“The environment is bad but Democrats still have to win on Republican ground,” remarked one GOP operative.
How Republicans Could Still Retain Control of the House
If House Republicans aim for an upset come November, they argue it hinges on their massive financial edge along with aggressive gerrymandering strategies.
Republicans outpace Democrats’ spending across all ten most costly House races through advertising leading up till Election Day according to Ad Impact data-all while enjoying multi-million-dollar advantages particularly targeting Democratic-held districts like Rep. Don Davis’ North Carolina’s 1st District or Maine’s open seat in its 2nd District.
Much of this funding focuses on newly drawn boundaries within Texas and Florida whose outcomes remain uncertain especially affecting incumbents such as Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz from Texas; yet if even several shifts favor Republicans it could offset losses elsewhere.
“At day’s end redistricting may either save us-or dictate how we hold onto our majority,” explained one member from GOP leadership told CNN.
Moreover there exist certain swing districts where optimism remains higher due partly because conflicts amongst Democratic candidates during primaries resulted leaving them weaker nominees-as seen currently within California’s 22nd District or Michigan’s 7th District alongside Maine’s open district where progressive candidates prevailed over establishment favorites during nominations rounds!
GOP Messaging During Final Weeks
Even amidst difficult midterm conditions ahead Republican candidates emphasize topics perceived advantageous with voters including taxes immigration enforcement dominating ads appearing throughout campaigns lately!
Tax reductions concerning tips overtime Social Security delivered via “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” fulfill key promises made heading into2024 thus becoming focal points once again! Furthermore critiques leveled towards opposing parties increase sharply!
“Zach Nunn voted for largest middle-class tax cut ever,” boasts ad promoting incumbent running within Iowa’s highly competitive third district! p>
Ad Impact analysis found nearly one-third Republican s September emphasized taxation policies making it leading subject tracked firm so far! p>
On another front immigration ranked fourth emerging strong argument viewed effective strategy emphasizing law-and-order narratives aligning closely current concerns citizens raise frequently!” p>
Ads produced portraying negative consequences stemming choices made liberal figures contrast intensely local crime stories illustrate ongoing tensions heightening urgency public safety prioritization!” p>
Among various other specific issues garnering attention spotlighting transgender policy clashes continues resonating well especially after previous successes demonstrated effectiveness driving voter sentiment against adversarial positioning taken prior election cycle! p>
As rebuttals arise swiftly targeted attacks show viability highlighted repeatedly signaling traction gained polling data showing significance implications moving forward into critical days ahead pushing changes underway likely occur legislative battles raged fiercely afterward depending outcomes here today! p>
“Here’s truth: I voted alongside republicans ensure gender ideologies kept schools intact allowing parents decide best routes children sports participation,” Kaptur asserts amongst various statements circulating widely surrounding campaign messaging aiming clarify priorities enhancing connectivity constituents directly impacted issues matter deeply impacting lives everyday levels influencing decisions approaching shortly thereafter!” p>
The-CNN-Wire
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