WASHINGTON (AP) – As voters deal with high costs and frustration over an unpopular conflict with Iran, they will determine whether to make a significant change in Washington during the midterm elections on Tuesday. This election serves as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s second term.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic about their chances as they observe Republicans pouring tens of millions of dollars into states and districts that Trump easily won two years ago. They believe that dissatisfaction with Trump’s inability to address rising prices and the perception that he has been more focused on embellishing Washington than addressing everyday struggles will lower Republican turnout while motivating their own supporters to vote.
Republicans remain hopeful that their financial edge will help them maintain control, but they are preparing for potential losses in the U. S. House and trying to hold onto the U. S. Senate – a situation that seemed unlikely earlier this year when many believed the political landscape favored their party.
The margins are tight in both chambers, meaning just one or two seats could decide the outcome. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the 100-member Senate for majority control, which is challenging since many competitive races are in historically conservative states. In the 435-member House, they require only three.
More than 57 million voters had already cast their ballots by Monday, with early voting surpassing numbers from four years ago in several closely watched states.
Trump has urged voters to behave as if he’s on the ballot, despite many Republican candidates attempting to distance themselves from him. “I really want you to pretend I’m on the ballot,” he told supporters during his final rally in Salina, Kansas, this past Sunday evening.
His busy campaign schedule included stops in some of the reddest states like Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas, highlighting challenges facing his party.
The president has also repeated unfounded claims about widespread voting fraud, suggesting noncitizens are voting illegally. His administration has initiated lawsuits in Alaska and California while Democrats worry about possible interference and intimidation at polling places as his Justice Department threatens action against local election officials.
This Election Could Change Everything
The outcomes will influence Trump’s last two years in office after a Republican-controlled Congress largely supported his agenda without question. If Democrats take control of even one chamber of Congress, it could lead to increased investigations and potential impeachments aimed at figures like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, who was once one of Trump’s top advisors.
A strong performance by Democrats would also provide momentum for potential presidential contenders waiting for their chance-such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg-and complicate matters for Vice President JD Vance along with other Republicans hoping to use loyalty to Trump as leverage.
Republicans have tried to defy historical trends-wherein a sitting president’s party usually loses seats during midterms-with aggressive redistricting aimed at creating more favorable congressional boundaries. However, this strategy may fall short; new districts drawn in Florida and elsewhere don’t guarantee solid Republican support.
Trump’s choices might also backfire. In Texas, he attempted to unseat long-time Senator John Cornyn for scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton, leading to an expensive race against Democratic candidate James Talarico-a move Democrats hope will help them finally flip Texas blue.
In North Carolina too, Senator Thom Tillis decided not to run again after disagreements with Trump. The replacement candidate handpicked by Trump was Michael Whatley-the former RNC chair-but he has struggled against Democratic candidate Roy Cooper.
“Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters we win, and that’s what we’ve been planning for,” said Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters as he expressed optimism right before Election Day.
A significant portion of Republican television ad spending during the general election-88.1%-was directed toward areas where Trump had victory margins exceeding ten points back in 2024 according to an analysis by Ad Impact. A media tracking firm found over $850 million reserved for ads across those regions
The Public Grows Disenchanted With Trump
Recent polls indicate only 35% of U. S adults approve of Trump’s performance as president based on findings from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Most blame him for rising prices while struggling with gas costs and groceries expenses
An issue once seen favorably now falters: only 25% believe he’s managing economic issues well. Overall , around seven out ten people think things aren’t heading towards improvement.
“The American people are angry. They want change. They want folks who are goingto stand up for them,” stated Rep. Suzan Del Bene , chairofthe Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee expressing confidence despite what appeared like endless funding streams availablefor Republicans.
The results should senda clear signalthatpeople “have souredonhis agenda.” p >
Sweeping Changes May Affect Both Chambers
In The Senate , Democrats feel most confidentabout pickingup North Carolinaand keeping Georgia , where Sen. Jon Ossoff facesoffagainst Republican Rep. Mike Collins. Other important battlegrounds include Ohio , where former Democrat Senator Sherrod Brownchallenges Republican Senator Jon Husted, and Alaska where lawsuitsfiledbythe Trumpadministrationaimto blockcertificationofthe Senate resultsiftheincumbent Dan Sullivanlosesdue tothepresenceofanothercandidate named Dan Sullivanontheballot. p >
Ontherepublicans’ side, their goalis holdingseats instates suchas Iowa, Kansasand Mainewhile aimingto pick up Michigan where Mike Rogers competesagainstprogressive Abdul El-Sayed-oneofmanyleft-leaningcandidateswho triumphedduringthiselectionseason’s primaries. El-Sayed’sformerprimaryopponent Haley Stevens shookuptherace Sundayby endorsing Rogers, reigniting tensionsover Israelandparty direction within dominant Democratic primaries. p >
In The House , whilehopesrested onthestrengthofredistrictingefforts, republicansstruggleto maintainnarrowmajorityasdemocrats attempttoshiftseatsfromareas Trumprepeatedlywon-from Florida allthewayto Texasand Iowa. p >
A Lot Is Riding On Governor Races Nationwide
Beyond Washington, Dems aimfor dominancein36states’ gubernatorialraces hopingforthelargestgains seenin twentyyears alongsidevoter discontent. Democratracesare highlycompetitive particularlyin populousstatedlike Texasand Florida togetherwithsteadily red states suchasiowa.
In Ohio, a backlash eruptedagainst Repubican Vivek Ramaswamy due toa controversialadfeaturing Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged motherwholost custody decadesagoafter herhusband Acton’s stepfather faced chargesfor raping Actonasachild.
The Stakes Are High For Washington’s Future
Outcomescould significantlyshape Trumpsfinaltwoyearsonoffice linkeddirectlytoracecontrol over Congress.
House Leader Hakeem Jeffries from New Yorkstandsreadytomakehistoryasthefirst Blackhouse Speakerifhisparty prevails. Hisambitious100-dayplanfocuseson loweringlivingcostsandstrongoversighttowards Trumpadministration. P >
Controlinthe Senatelikelyremain unchangedbutit mayturnintoacriticalbackstopformany GOPprioritiesornew focalpointfor Dems seekingstop presidency agendas.
Come2026expectrecordbreakingcampaignexpenditures. Republicancommitteeshaveoutspent Dems thankslargelytoallieswithintrumppoliticalcirclesyet individualcandidate fundraisinghasbenefited Demsmoreoverall.
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