A catastrophe modeller states that 2026 is likely to be “the year of the urban flood” for Canadian insurers.
Severe storms that swept through parts of Ontario from July 27 to 28 and August 1 to 3 caused around $360 million in insured damages, according to initial data from Cat IQ. These storms unleashed heavy rain and flash flooding across the Niagara Region, impacting areas like St. Catharines, Niagara-on-the-Lake, Grimsby, and Lincoln, with significant rainfall also reported as far north as North Bay.
St. Catharines, a city home to over 136,000 residents, declared a state of emergency after three storms delivered nearly 400 millimetres of rain between July 21 and 28. Mayor Mat Siscoe shared that his own house was flooded twice during this period and described driving through “entire neighbourhoods where every single house was dealing with it,” noting driveways filled with construction debris and ruined furniture. The Town of Lincoln also issued a state of emergency. The Insurance Bureau of Canada set up its Virtual Community Assistance Mobile Pavilion helpline and created a community hub in St. Catharines to assist residents with their claims.
“Catastrophic flooding events are no longer unexpected. They are becoming more frequent, and each one seems more severe than the last,” said Amanda Dean, IBC’s vice-president for Ontario and Atlantic.
‘The year of the urban flood’
This situation isn’t unique. David Mc Gillivray, an expert in catastrophe risk in Canada, pointed out that Edmonton faced its own major storm system just a week after the Niagara flooding, leading to over $230 million in insured damages according to Cat IQ. “2026 is shaping up to be the year of the urban flood for Canadian insurers, driven almost entirely by convective storms,” Mc Gillivray stated, highlighting heavy thunderstorm-driven rains that have also affected Calgary, Regina, Swift Current, Winnipeg, Brandon, Dauphin, Windsor, London and Montreal this year.
Insurance Business has reported that losses from the June Saskatchewan-Manitoba outbreak have now reached $923 million in estimated insured damages; this is an increase from an initial estimate of $728 million. This incident has joined other events like Toronto’s early-September hailstorm and Cape Breton’s flooding weeks later in what appears to be an unusually busy national catastrophe year.
Why ‘aging infrastructure’ isn’t the whole story
Officials from St. Catharines have pushed back against claims that the city simply neglected its stormwater systems. City engineers noted that St. Catharines has significantly increased its spending on wastewater infrastructure recently and expressed doubt that any municipal system in Canada could handle such high levels of rain regardless of condition. Niagara West MPP Sam Oosterhoff mentioned more than $272 million invested by the province into infrastructure within the Niagara Region over the past two years.
This context matters when considering how IBC frames their policies: this wasn’t just about neglected infrastructure finally failing; it was about existing systems-some even recently upgraded-being overwhelmed by rain volumes beyond current design standards.
IBC’s three-part request
IBC is again urging governments to invest in stormwater management and drainage systems while shifting focus from disaster recovery towards prevention measures. They’re also advocating for broader access to flood-risk information via tools like Canada’s Flood Risk Finder which they say remains unavailable for residents across most provinces.
For brokers working with clients in the Niagara Region, questions regarding coverage will likely focus on sewer backup issues which require optional coverage many homeowners do not carry; Ontario’s Disaster Recovery Assistance for Ontarians program can provide up to $250,000 for uninsured losses but generally excludes sewer backup damage except under limited low-income exceptions.
Considering this event follows patterns seen earlier by IBC flagged incidents in Quebec, Alberta and now Ontario this year-urban flash floods overwhelming stormwater systems designed for different climate conditions-brokers advising municipal or commercial clients on flood exposure should see this as additional evidence highlighting why overland flood and sewer backup endorsements need proactive attention at renewal time.
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