With the latest polling data in, it’s clear that the race for mayor in Mississauga is heating up with just three weeks left until election day.
In two out of three polls released recently, former mayor Bonnie Crombie holds slight leads over current Mayor Carolyn Parrish, while a third poll shows Parrish ahead by nine points.
Liaison Strategies shared on Monday morning that its most recent Mississauga Tracker survey has Crombie at 30 percent, Parrish at 29 percent, Ward 2 Coun. Alvin Tedjo at 26 percent, and Ward 7 Coun. Dipika Damerla at 11 percent among those who are decided or leaning toward a candidate. Four percent indicated they would choose another candidate.
The polling firm noted that “Tedjo has more than doubled his support since August, bringing the three candidates within four points of each other.”
An August poll from Liaison showed Parrish and Crombie tied at 35 percent, with Damerla at 18 percent and Tedjo at 12 percent.
(Source: Liaison Strategies)
For this latest poll, Liaison reported surveying a random sample of 1,000 residents from Mississauga between October 2-4 using Interactive Voice Recording technology. Participants were contacted through random digit dialing across both landline and cell networks.
The overall margin of error for this sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points, with a higher margin for subsamples like those decided or leaning voters, as noted by Liaison.
David Valentin from Liaison Strategies pointed out that Crombie has a slim lead over Parrish while Tedjo is closing in fast.
“Tedjo’s gains coincide with an increase in his earned media coverage since August when Crombie was dominating the news,” Valentin said. “He’s gaining more attention now, making the race even more competitive.”
Last 30 Days: 56,717 Votes
All Time: 1,560,496 Votes
1475 VOTES
What’s the biggest issue in this municipal election?
(Source: Liaison Strategies)
Meanwhile, another recent poll by Toronto-based Pallas Data shows Parrish leading Crombie by nearly ten points.
This poll was released on Saturday and indicates Parrish is sitting at 34 percent (up two points from Pallas’ last poll in early September), Crombie at 25 percent (down two points), Tedjo at 21 percent (up two points), and Damerla at 14 percent (up two points) among decided and leaning voters.
The option for “another candidate” received seven percent of the votes.
Pallas noted that according to their data, about 28 percent of Mississauga voters are still undecided ahead of the October 26 municipal election.
Pallas Data mentioned its latest survey was conducted on September 30 and October 1 among a sample of 503 eligible voters in Mississauga. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points with a confidence level of95%.
“Opposition vote is divided”
“Parrish leads because the main opposition vote splits between Bonnie Crombie and Alvin Tedjo,” explained Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data. “She could face challenges if that vote consolidates around one candidate; however, both Crombie and Tedjo are performing well enough individually to keep their share.”
Pallas also pointed out that its most recent poll was finished just as the latest mayoral debate featuring all four main candidates wrapped up last Thursday night. They further added that “the debate made headlines due to how heated it became,” so these results predate any public reaction to it.
“It was quite an intense debate; we don’t yet know how voters perceived it,” Angolano said. “This poll reflects where things stood going into it while over a quarter remain undecided.”
Pallas confirmed its latest mayoral survey used automated phone interviews (IVR) on landlines as well as cellphones.
A third poll indicates slight edge for Crombie
A separate poll conducted by Mainstreet Research also shared on Saturday reveals Crombie has just under a three-point lead over Parrish.
Mainstreet describes this situation as “a divided race” with Crombie leading at30.4percent while Parrish follows closely behind with27.6percent. Tedjo comes next with20.5percentand Damerla scored10.4percent.
“The Mississauga mayoral contest is shaping up to be one of the fiercest races we’ll see before2026,” stated Mainstreet’s president and CEO Quito Maggi.
“The clash between these political heavyweights along with rising challenger Tedjo promises excitement,” he added. p >
Similar to other local elections , Mainstreet highlighted affordability concerns along with living costs as key issues , drawing32.7%of responses followed by crime safety issues standingat18.5%inthiselection. p >
In additiontothethreerecentmayoral surveys , an INSAUGA Canada head-to-head questionpoll conductedlastweekindicated Parrish gained considerable support comparedto Crombienamongreaders who respondedtoan inquiryaboutthe upcoming Mississaugavote. p >
Thepollqueried : Who do you plan to voteforas Mississaugamayor ? p >
A totalof1000voteswere cast , with628respondentsor62.8 %choosing Parrishwhile372votes or37.2%selected Crombe. p >
Thispoll specificallycomparedonly Parrishwa Crombe withoutconsideringothercandidatesrunningforoffice. p >
Inearly2024, Crombelostherpositionas Mississaugamayoraftertenyearstolead Ontario Liberalsandchallenge Ontario Premier Doug Fordforhisseatin power.
Followingthischange , Parrishwonayearlaterin June2024duringamunicipalbyelectionagainstcandidatesincluding Tedjo, Damerl, and Ward1Coun Stephen Dasko.
Thetwohigh-profilecandidateshavefacedoffintensecampaignsleadingupto2026followingtheirpastencounterswhere Crombiedefeated Parrishtwoyearsbackinthe September2011 byelectionfor Ward5seataswellhavingdifficultiesfrom her campaign againstheropponentwhoalso remainedstrongafter losingvote counts showing2479 against2239respectively.
Otherten candidatesaimingforthe Mayoralpostare:
David Shaw – participatedbothin2024by-electionandlastmunicipalelections. Registeredtorun May1. Mike Matulewicz-tookpartin2024byelection. Registered May5. Amjad Jilani-filedon July14. Frank Fang-competedinthe2024byelectionandcontested Ward9seatpreviously. Registered July15. Fadi Naami-registered July20. Karam Ahmed-registered Aug20. Aamir Bhatti-registered Aug21. Gord Elliott-registered Aug21. Mohsin Khan-registered Aug18. Ana Luisa Vasquez De Espinal-registered Aug11.
To learnmoreaboutwho’srunningandgeneralinformationregardingtheelectionsvisitcity website page online.
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