Support for Alberta Independence Dips in 2026 Poll

According to a recent Ipsos poll for , support for Alberta independence has seen a decline since early 2026.

The survey, conducted from May 28 to June 1, revealed that only 19 percent of Albertans indicated they would vote this fall in favor of holding a separate binding referendum. In contrast, 72 percent would choose to remain in Canada, with the rest being undecided, choosing not to vote, or not responding.

This latest polling data implies that the push for separation lacks the strength necessary to advance beyond the initial referendum scheduled for October. Ipsos also asked Albertans about their intentions if that binding referendum were somehow still held.

If a binding referendum takes place, the Ipsos poll indicates that 18 percent of Albertans would opt to leave Canada, while 72 percent would prefer to stay. Nine percent remained undecided or did not respond.

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This figure of 18 percent shows a significant drop of ten points from January when 28 percent of Albertans expressed support for separation.

2:47 Road to the Referendum: Concerns, uncertainty on how Alberta independence could impact economy

Back then, the Stay Free Alberta separatist group was still collecting signatures. However, in recent months, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith decided to include a question about separatism in her referendum announcement made in February. The original questions focused primarily on immigration and constitutional matters.

The new question will ask: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada – or – should the government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”

Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada and global CEO for Ipsos Public Affairs, noted that recent data suggests weakening support for separation as its reality becomes clearer.

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“It seems like as people think more about this actually happening – casting their votes – we see support for separatism declining,” he said during an interview with regarding these findings.

Stay supporters are more committed than those favoring separation

The data also indicates that those against separation show stronger commitment toward their choice.

Ninety percent of respondents who wish to stay in Canada described their decision as “definite,” compared to just seventy percent among those who would choose separation.

“What this shows is that individuals who genuinely want Alberta remaining part of Canada are strongly motivated to vote accordingly,” Bricker stated.

“While there’s some level of support among separatists, it’s significantly lower so they’ll need every person claiming certainty in their vote – and likely three times more – just to be competitive.”

The Stay Free Alberta supporters demonstrating in Edmonton on Monday, May 4, 2026.

The Stay Free Alberta group behind this push claims it has collected over three hundred thousand signatures on its petition advocating for an independence referendum. If verified, this number represents roughly six percent of Alberta’s total population of five million residents.

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The signature verification process is currently paused due to a judge having dismissed the petition last month – an action which the Alberta government plans to appeal and which also prompted Smith’s addition of a tenth question.

3:56 Danielle Smith says province will appeal ruling against separation petition

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Support for both initiating a referendum and actual separation is lowest within Calgary; only fourteen percent say they back moving forward with a referendum-compared with eighteen percent in Edmonton and twenty-seven percent across other parts of Alberta.

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Similarly , twelve per cent from Calgary indicated they’d opt for separation versus sixteen per cent from Edmonton and twenty-seven per cent elsewhere in the province.

Support levels differ based on political affiliation.

Among right-leaning United Conservative Party members , fifty per cent prefer staying within Canada compared with forty per cent supporting holding a referendum and forty-one per cent who’d consider voting for separation.

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Bricker mentioned that this division is evident even among Danielle Smith’s own political followers.

“Though there’s notable support for separating , there’s equally considerable backing towards remaining within Canada.”

“Thus even (in) UCP circles , there’s some degree division.”