A weather system moving through the Great Lakes might lead to widespread thunderstorms on Saturday, and some could potentially be severe.
Yet, a few conflicting elements are complicating the forecast. Rain-cooled air combined with wildfire smoke is causing more uncertainty than usual regarding how intense and widespread Saturday’s storm threat will be. There’s a chance of frequent lightning and even a tornado.
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The risk of severe weather is expected to increase as a cold front approaches the area, bringing an extensive line of thunderstorms that will move southward in the afternoon.
Strong wind gusts, large hail, and localized flooding could pose serious threats to communities impacted by the strongest storms. Embedded rotation might create a brief tornado risk, particularly as this line interacts with cooler breezes from Lake Erie and eastern Lake Ontario shores.
The afternoon has already begun intensely with rare tornado warnings issued across parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), including Mississauga, Brampton, and Oakville.
Other areas to keep an eye on for severe weather include Prince Edward County stretching from Cobourg to Kingston and St. Mary’s down to Lake Erie.
The potential for widespread severe storms runs from London to Cornwall due to high shear, helicity, and cape values. However, two factors are injecting uncertainty into this forecast.
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The thick wildfire smoke will persist into Saturday. Smoke generally tends to inhibit severe thunderstorm development.
Stable air created by rainfall overnight Friday into Saturday morning may combine with the smoke to limit storm intensity in eastern Ontario east of the Kawarthas.
Still, since models indicate there’s potential for severe storms, it can’t be dismissed entirely. Everyone in the region should stay alert for possible severe weather as conditions develop nearby.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for all updates about conditions across Ontario.
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WATCH: Wildfire smoke shifts as a low-pressure system moves through Ontario
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