Good morning. Later today, Donald Trump will be in Nebraska to energize his supporters as he launches a series of campaign rallies ahead of the midterm elections on November 3.
If his early speeches are any indication, Nebraskans can expect a mix of poll denial, jabs at veganism, and an expletive ratio that would definitely entertain my nine-year-old. And folks in Nebraska might enjoy it too: aside from one “blue dot” district in Omaha, Republicans believe their support remains strong in a state that has easily backed Trump three times.
This campaign unfolds amid the president’s sinking approval ratings, the fading of his Maga movement, and a rising affordability crisis fueled by his contentious war on Iran. Yet Trump’s supporters are among the most driven to vote, and Republicans have much more financial backing to rally their base.
I reached out to First Edition readers about what you want to know regarding the US midterms. Today, in a fun twist for our newsletter collaboration, I posed your questions to our Washington editor Ankita Rao, who oversees our US elections newsletter The Stakes. First up, here are the headlines.
Weekend roundup
UK politics | The Greens in England and Wales have officially adopted a policy that equates Zionism with racism and advocates for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state.
Schools | Lawyers and advocates have condemned the “horrifying” extent of child-on-child sexual abuse in schools after a Guardian investigation revealed thousands of sexual offenses against children under 13 are reported annually to police.
Brazil | Brazil’s presidential election will proceed to a second round after far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro defeated incumbent leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva but failed to secure enough votes for an outright majority.
Environment | A recent study about Europe’s summer presents grim forecasts for the future, with doctors and climate scientists urging governments to cease burning fossil fuels, provide shade for buildings, green urban areas, and install air conditioning in hospitals, schools, and care homes.
US military | The US Air Force has withdrawn its bombers from RAF Fairford following an inquiry into an alleged planned terror attack at the base.
In depth: ‘We are prepared for anything’
Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Omaha, Nebraska in 2020. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
You wouldn’t be alone if you find US politics confusing right now. On one hand, there are voters losing faith in the president’s actions abroad while growing frustrated with his failure to make life more affordable at home.
On the flip side, Trump has teased a “big surprise” on November 3 – and polls have been wrong before when predicting election outcomes.
As Ankita Rao pointed out in The Stakes back in September, her team has gathered consistent feedback across various communities they’ve covered:
Americans feel their lives are governed by an elite group that transcends political parties – aptly summarized by Democratic senator Jon Ossoff’s phrase “Epstein class”.
People feel drained by ongoing issues related to childcare costs, healthcare access, food prices and gas expenses.
Many have lost faith in institutions ranging from hospitals to schools.
With this deep understanding of public sentiment nationwide, she is well-equipped to tackle your questions. Over to you.
Who still believes in Donald Trump? Johanne, Quebec, Canada
Ankita’s brief response is that it may actually be reversed: many Americans don’t feel they’ve been offered better alternatives yet. This became clear during primary season when both Democrats and Republicans gravitated towards candidates who seemed ready to challenge established norms rather than sticking strictly with traditional party platforms.
After all – that’s what so many wanted from Trump initially – but those voters who once rallied behind him as an anti-establishment figure now see him aligning with big tech companies and other corporate interests especially during this last term as president.
There seems to be a significant gap between Trump and his followers according to Ankita. His previously sharp political instincts appear weakened “partly because he can’t see beyond his own fixations” – whether it’s his ballroom dealings or concerns over AI growth or tensions surrounding Iran.
As one voter from Ohio shared with us recently: “I’m sorry but I don’t give a shit whose name is on the Kennedy Center.”
Has Trump got some sort of decisive ‘dirty trick’ planned? Bron Purkiss , England
A major concern among First Edition readers is about election interference: how Trump has already made moves against voting rights and what sneaky tactics he might still attempt. Will he ignore election results again -and how would The Guardian report such events? P >
Ankita joined Guardian US seven years ago as voting rights editor launching our multi-year democracy project. ” We had four reporters covering that , but they’re now part of our larger politics team , ” she mentions , “and election integrity has become critical for our coverage.” p >
As we move closer toward midterms , trump signed executive orders seeking greater control over voting processes , & during recent interview with Time magazine last week he didn ’t rule out declaring national emergency around elections. ” So we’re prepared for anything,” says Ankita. p >
Legal challenges within individual races seem almost unavoidable ,” she continues. ” We know which states hold complete control over election systems by Republicans & we’re ready if any unusual activities arise.” Concerns regarding electoral manipulation run high among communities Guardian reporters engage with regularly : ” We often hear from Democrats anxious about ensuring their votes count & feeling uneasy about using mail-in ballots.” This month’s edition covers trump’s efforts aimed at restricting postal voting which constitutes nearly one-third American voting patterns. p >
Ankita suggests these circumstances could drive higher voter turnout rates. Early data shows registrations climbing substantially among Democrat voters even within deeply red Florida. p >
” There exists this sense saying ‘we must show up en masse so every victory counts beyond question’.” P >
Would losses affect Trump’s power? Peter Alexander , England P >
Ankita says she no longer makes predictions since things can change rapidly within weeks ; however if elections happened tomorrow she’d say Democrats were likely securing both Houses comfortably based upon current data trends. P >
Voting procedures mean substantial majorities required across chambers act as effective barriers against trump’s decisions ; yet let me add noteworthy caveat stating previous situations where trump completely bypassed congressional authorisation leading up Iran conflict occurred too ! P >
Nevertheless lots speculate investigations post-midterm outcomes would unfold initiated through House requiring Senate cooperation moving forward; case involving accusations surrounding Russian oligarch financing part Donald Jr.’ wedding being called forth already!
How might democratic socialists impact policy choices following midterms? Feride Hekimgil, turkey
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