OTTAWA – Three federal byelections are happening on Monday in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia.
Two of these ridings are seen as secure Liberal seats, both left vacant by former cabinet ministers. In Quebec, where the Conservatives had won four times in a row, they might struggle to maintain their position.
Let’s take a closer look at the three contests.
North Vancouver-Capilano
Jonathan Wilkinson, a former cabinet minister from the Trudeau government, stepped down from his seat in June to take up a diplomatic role in Europe. He received nearly 60 percent of the vote in April 2025.
The Liberals have selected Braeden Caley as their candidate; he previously worked as Mark Carney’s deputy chief of staff and was also involved in Carney’s election campaign. He’s returning to his home province to run for a seat in Ottawa.
The Conservative candidate is Stephen Curran, a commercial lawyer who finished second to Wilkinson in 2025 with just over 33 percent of the votes. He has been running attack ads on social media questioning Caley’s ties to the community.
In the last election, NDP support dropped nationally as voters reflected on potential trade war consequences with the U. S., resulting in them finishing third with just over four percent of the vote. Stephen Tweedale, who works for a local MLA, is now representing the NDP in this byelection.
Beaches-East York
Nate Erskine-Smith’s future in politics remains uncertain; however, he has decided not to seek re-election for this Toronto-area seat in Ottawa. First elected back in 2015, Erskine-Smith was an outspoken member during his time and briefly served as a cabinet minister but resigned after choosing to pursue provincial party leadership – which he is no longer chasing after losing earlier this year.
Tanveer Shahnawaz, who was his constituency office manager before this byelection, is running for the Liberals now.
Erskine-Smith won with more than 67 percent of the vote back in 2025-23 points ahead of his Conservative opponent.
The NDP candidate once again is Shannon Devine, a labour leader and activist who came third last time around. Jim Sybros represents the Conservatives.
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
This rural riding located about 200 kilometers north of Quebec City saw a close race back in April 2025.
The incumbent Richard Martel-a former junior hockey coach-managed to win four consecutive elections for the Conservatives here but narrowly defeated candidates from both Bloc Québécois and Liberal parties.
This spring marked Martel’s departure from Pierre Poilievre’s caucus after being nominated by Carney for a Senate position.
The Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil is stepping up; he’s known as a dairy farmer and previously led a provincial dairy association.
Trade Issues and Broader Implications
According to Daniel Béland-a political science professor at Mc Gill University-Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is definitely worth watching come Monday.
The Saguenay region has felt significant impacts from U. S President Donald Trump’s tariffs due mainly to its production strength with aluminum and forestry products; many local dairy farmers have faced challenges because of American frustrations towards Canada’s supply management system during these trade disputes.
However it seems that Carney’s choice not engaging further hasn’t negatively affected federal perceptions within Quebec.
“Donald Trump is extremely unpopular in Quebec,” Béland noted “and I think that most Quebecers believe Mark Carney’s explanation that Americans were asking too much.”
A recent poll conducted by Angus Reid Institute indicates three-quarters believe walking away was correct-and among those respondents from Quebec that number climbs even higher at 85 percent.
Shachi Kurl-the president at Angus Reid Institute-mentioned this sentiment could influence byelection results.
“If there will be an impact,” she said,“which there may well be-it’ll likely favor (the Liberals) rather than harm them.”
Béland added if either Bloc or Liberals emerge victorious here it’ll mean further setbacks for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
“Should they finish notably behind-the narrative solidifying Pierre Poilievre isn’t effectively aiding party prospects will strengthen,” he remarked while acknowledging Martel’s popularity helped him narrowly succeed last election cycle.
Kurl highlighted how polling shows why tariffs imposed by Trump continue posing difficulties concerning Tory leadership opinions.
“Conservatives remain divided regarding whether Mr. Carney along with his negotiators made right choices or not,” she explained.
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