Concerns Grow Over Election Integrity Amid Betting Sponsorships

A recent mayoral election in the US sparked a wave of misinformation from online influencers backed by betting companies, highlighting a new challenge that experts say could jeopardize the fairness of upcoming elections.

The prediction market app Kalshi has urged at least two paid influencers to remove X posts that made unfounded allegations of “cheating” and “stealing” related to the Los Angeles mayoral race, as reported by US media.

Another company, Polymarket, informed AFP that “paid partnership” tags were taken off several other posts that similarly cast doubt on the election while advertising the company’s betting odds.

This development raised concerns as these false posts surfaced just ahead of November’s midterm elections, where President Donald Trump’s Republican Party aims to keep control of Congress, followed by the presidential election in 2028.

However, an AFP examination found more than seven X posts questioning California’s results still displayed sponsorship tags on Friday, indicating they continued to gain from their paid collaborations with either firm.

“The LA mayoral race is a preview of what’s coming in American election cycles,” stated Jess Rauchberg, an assistant professor at Seton Hall University, in comments to AFP. 

“If 2016 was dubbed the ‘social media election’ and 2024 is seen as the ‘influencer election,’ then 2028 will likely be remembered as the ‘prediction market election.’

The sponsored content contributed to a surge of misinformation regarding California’s primary, mainly from Trump supporters who have labeled both this mayoral race and other state contests as rigged.

Incumbent Democrat Karen Bass and progressive challenger Nithya Raman moved forward to compete in the mayoral runoff after surpassing Trump-backed candidate Spencer Pratt in one of several closely monitored primaries statewide.

 

– ‘Making Big Profits’ –

 

A spokesperson for Polymarket told AFP that their guidelines “clearly prohibit affiliates from sharing misleading or false information and we will continue monitoring compliance with our paid contributors.”

They did not specify how many sponsorship tags had been removed but AFP’s investigation identified at least four affected posts.

Kalshi did not respond to requests for comment from AFP.

“Do these companies really stop people from denying election results or just messages that make them look bad?” asked Emerson Brooking from the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab during his conversation with AFP.

“They’re profiting handsomely from American democracy even while undermining it.”

AFP discovered paid partnership labels under posts made by three individuals previously charged for their roles in relation to the January 6, 2021 insurrection when a violent mob stormed the US Capitol.

“California just keeps counting until the Democrat wins,” wrote one of them, Owen Shroyer-a former host at conspiracy website Info Wars-in a post that has since been deleted.

The sponsored partners also included other creators whom AFP has previously fact-checked for spreading misinformation, like right-wing You Tuber Nick Shirley.

In one post promoting Polymarket odds, American influencer Matt Wallace claimed that “millions of illegals vote in California,” referring to undocumented immigrants.

An anonymous account also posted suggesting that California’s extended ballot counting was simply cover for fraud: “Queue the mail-in ballots!! Like clockwork.”

 

– ‘Surge’ in Betting –

 

Prediction market companies are banned in some nations and are facing scrutiny over insider trading claims within the US. They let users wager on outcomes ranging from political events and sports to various conflicts and elections.

Their paid partnerships highlight what Brooking described as “the troubling incentive structure” motivating influencers to profit off electoral misinformation.

“Influencers aren’t incentivized to be accurate; they’re compensated for visibility,” he explained.

“When their forecasts don’t pan out, their simplest recourse is often crying fraud.”

AFP has fact-checked numerous inaccuracies linked to California’s elections including unproven assertions about a fraudulent “ballot dump,” which local authorities and even a Trump-appointed prosecutor have debunked.

BROOKING added that “the rise of political betting markets only complicates matters further” leading up to midterms.

“Anyone with significant social media influence can seize profit opportunities if they spread certain falsehoods at just the right moment.”

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