Chances are, former Toronto Raptor Kawhi Leonard will still end up being a Toronto Raptor again. There is even a world — a dreamy, distant world where streets are paved with gold and faucets drip honey — where the seven-time All-NBA selection becomes a Raptor under terms that seem almost fantastical. But to be clear: chances are Leonard rejoins the Raptors under terms identical to the trade that has been widely reported — although not officially announced. That is: the Los Angeles Clippers star comes to Toronto in exchange for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, rights to the Raptors’ first-round draft picks in 2031 and 2033, the right to swap positions with the Raptors in the first round of the 2027 draft and two second-round picks, and everyone gets on with their lives. But there are some fairly significant issues to be resolved before any of that happens, which is why the Raptors announced on Thursday that the Leonard trade is on hold for the moment. What changed since the deal was largely agreed to on June 30 was that the NBA league office — which has been investigating the circumstances around which Leonard signed his current contract with the Clippers for possible salary cap circumvention — told the Raptors that they (the Raptors) would “assume the risk of any potential outcome of the investigation impacting Kawhi,” the team said in a statement. The Raptors added: “In light of this, we will wait until the league’s investigation is complete. The Raptors remain eager to bring Kawhi back to Toronto and look forward to a swift resolution for our players, our organization, and our fans.” I should add that a spokesman for the NBA made clear that the league was willing to approve the trade, it’s just that they wanted to be upfront that the Raptors would have to deal with any fallout that hit Leonard. As well, this scenario only applies to Leonard and his contract. The Raptors aren’t inheriting any risk as it relates to punishment that could end up hitting the Clippers franchise. But in total, no one wants a situation where the trade is completed, Leonard is hit with severe penalties, the Raptors are left in the lurch and the league has egg on its face. It’s not quite the same scenario as when the Charlotte Hornets traded Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat while Rozier was part of a gambling probe by the FBI, leaving the Heat out a first-round pick for an untradeable player, but the echoes are there. The league doesn’t want teams trading for players without at least having alerted all involved to the potential risks. So what does this mean? In the short-term, we’re in a holding pattern again. There is some hope that, with the NBA Board of Governors meeting scheduled for next Tuesday in Las Vegas, there could be some urgency to have the results of the now 10-month investigation being conducted by a law firm on behalf of the league wrapped up by then. At the NBA Finals in early June, commissioner Adam Silver made it sound like he was running out of patience: “I think we are close to the point now where I think we need to wrap this up, because you also need finality,” said Silver on June 3. “The team has to understand what situation they are going to be operating under, and so do the other 29 teams. So that’s where things currently stand.” From the Raptors point of view, the biggest risk they were facing was that Leonard’s contract — he has one year left and $50.3 million left on a three-year, $149.5m contract extension he signed midway through the 2023-24 season — would be voided, and they would have traded away significant assets for a player they would no longer have under contract. How big a risk was that? That is the $123.7 million question — the value of the two-year extension the Raptors are eligible to sign Leonard to once the trade becomes official in its current form. But it’s likely not all that significant. The Raptors did their due diligence before agreeing to the deal and felt comfortable enough then to go ahead with it, judging the odds of Leonard being unable to play for them as remote. This is just the Raptors being cautious because it makes sense to be, and they can. The Leonard trade isn’t going anywhere. For context, the only player contract in league history to be voided came about when the NBA determined that the Minnesota Timberwolves had signed Joe Smith to two contracts at the same time back in 1999: a below-market deal for that season, and a secret agreement that after Smith played three seasons on cheap, one-year contracts, the Wolves would make it up to him by signing him to a four-year deal worth $86 million. The two signed agreements were discovered during a lawsuit, and with such incontrovertible evidence, then-NBA commissioner David Stern brought down the hammer on Smith and the Timberwolves. He docked Minnesota five future first-round picks, voided Smith’s contract and stripped him of his so-called ‘Bird Rights,’ which limited how much he could sign for on his next contract. In the end, he signed a one-year deal with the Detroit Pistons for $2 million. But the NBA is a different place in 2026 than it was in the early 2000s. Voiding Leonard’s contract and potentially crushing his market value would be an issue the NBA Players’ Association would have something to say about. Going to war with Clippers owner Steve Ballmer and his $140 billion fortune would carry some risks as well. So again, the most likely scenario is that the trade unfolds as intended. To the extent there is discipline that comes from the league’s investigation, it’s the Clippers who will have to forfeit some future draft picks, and hey, they just got two firsts from the Raptors, so they can afford it. Maybe Leonard is suspended or fined, but league business continues. Maybe the investigation determines that the Clippers were indeed duped by a fraudster — that is the crux of their defence — and they did nothing wrong. But there is a scenario — as suggested above — where the Raptors end up coming out way ahead on the whole undertaking. What if Leonard’s contract is voided and he becomes a free agent in a market where the league is essentially full? The Raptors could pretty easily get enough salary cap maneuverability to offer Leonard the mid-level exception, which starts at $15.04 million. They would then have Leonard, Ingram and all their draft assets. They would still be in position to make another deal to improve their roster even more. The balance of power in the East would shift. If that seems too good to be true, it probably is, but I mention it only because that is how far out there this whole thing has gotten. After 10 months, no one really knows what is going to happen. It’s amazing. But when it comes to Leonard’s relationship with the Toronto Raptors, it’s just par for the course. He arrived in the summer of 2018 in a dramatic, emotional trade, led the Raptors on one of the most thrilling rollercoaster rides a franchise could ever have on their way to the 2019 NBA championship, left for home abruptly in the middle of the night and now has arrived in a cloud of question marks again. The NBA is never boring, and this latest chapter in the Kawhi Leonard saga, as it relates to the Raptors, is the ultimate proof. 1. Time is on their side: One benefit of the Clippers investigation dragging on is that the Raptors still have time to look into expanding the trade beyond its current structure. While sources have told me there is no scenario in which the terms of the deal would change should it be completed, that wouldn’t stop the Raptors from trying to involve a third team so they could send out more money than they are taking in. This would help them avoid being hard-capped at the first apron, which is the situation they are in now. As it stands, the Raptors are sending out $47.1 million in contract value and receiving $50.3 million. If they can find a way to unload another $3.2 million in salary for draft compensation, they would not be hard-capped at the first apron ($208 million) and would have more flexibility to add to their roster from there. For what it’s worth, third-year wing Ja’Kobe Walter’s $3.8 million salary would do the trick, although it’s hard to imagine the Raptors putting him into a deal after his breakout second season. 2. Reunion unlikely: I’ve mentioned this before, but the Raptors really aren’t in a position to offer even veteran minimum deals to free agents such as former Raptors DeMar DeRozan or Jonas Valanciunas, as much as it would make for a great story. As Toronto’s situation stands now, even a minimum deal, which counts as $2.49 million against the cap, puts them over the first apron. Since they are required to carry at least 14 players, one workaround would be to sign second-round pick Jaden Bradley to a minimum deal (he’s currently on a two-way) because it would only count as $1.4 million against the cap, so it would fit. Another option is to have 13 players coming out of training camp, something they can do for two weeks at a time for a total of 28 days (the Raptors would have to sign someone and waive them after one day in between). After that wriggling, they would have enough to sign someone to a veteran minimum, but it’s hard to imagine DeRozan or Valanciunas being on the market at that point. 3. Judge Larry? Not quite. One of the compelling subplots around the Clipper saga is that (now) former Raptors shareholder Larry Tanenbaum is the chair of the NBA board of governors. He remains in the role through September even though his stake in MLSE and the Raptors was sold to Rogers Communications in a deal that is expected to close by the end of the year. So while there is the appearance that Tanenbaum’s last act as chair would be to preside over the punishment the Clippers would face — a delicious thing to think about, given the league investigated charges that the Clippers circumvented the salary cap to sign Leonard from the Raptors in 2019 — the facts as they were explained to me is that the Clippers investigation and any discipline that comes with it will be handled only by the league office, not the board of governors. Not so much fun.
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