While betting on election outcomes isn’t permitted in Canada, prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are taking in hundreds of thousands of dollars in wagers for the upcoming municipal elections in Ontario this October.
For instance, Polymarket has seen nearly $400,000 placed on bets regarding who will be the next mayor of Toronto, with an additional $43,000 wagered on Kalshi.
Similar bets have been created for cities such as Oshawa, Oakville, and Mississauga, with total stakes ranging from around $5,000 to roughly $40,000. There’s also some activity happening on Manifold, an online “social prediction game” that uses play money instead of real cash.
Although non-Canadian prediction markets can legally accept bets related to Canadian elections, residents of Ontario cannot take part themselves.
Here in Canada, prediction markets are regulated with restrictions mainly focused on climate issues, financial markets or economic indicators. These can only be accessed through dealers authorized by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO).
Currently, Polymarket is under a two-year ban in Ontario because the Ontario Securities Commission claimed that it violated provincial securities laws back in 2025.
Using VPNs to Bypass Restrictions
Despite the restrictions here, Canadians interested in betting on municipal elections could easily find a way to do so. Cristie Ford, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia specializing in financial regulation noted this possibility.
“You can use a VPN to conceal your physical location or your computer’s location within Canada to make it seem like you’re outside,” she explained.
Connor Brandi from Polymarket told that their platform “strictly prohibits the use of VPNs or similar tools to bypass geographic restrictions,” stating they monitor and review users for compliance.
Kalshi’s spokesperson Dani Lever mentioned that they’ve seen “no evidence” indicating users have utilized VPNs for betting on races in Ontario.
“We restrict election markets in Canada. Because we verify every user’s identity and residency at signup, using a VPN does not get around that restriction,” she added.
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Controversial prediction market betting coming to Canada
Toronto-based Wealthsimple is introducing prediction market betting through its new app called Wealthsimple Predict. These platforms allow users to place bets on real-world events’ outcomes; however, critics caution that these could represent another risky form of gambling.
According to Ford, one major concern about this kind of betting is how it might distort public perception regarding candidates’ chances which could influence election results.
“By creating an impression that there’s support behind a specific candidate you could potentially impact voter turnout,” she stated.
Nelson Pang is a Ph. D. candidate at the University of Toronto studying risk-taking behavior among youth and pointed out how this group might be particularly vulnerable when it comes to making poor betting choices due to marketing directed at young men within the industry.
reached out to both leading candidates for mayor in Toronto – Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford – seeking their thoughts on these wagers.
“I am certainly not engaged in any of that,” Bradford said while urging people to prioritize voting over betting since it’s “the only way” meaningful political change happens.
Chow mentioned during a campaign event focused on libraries that while she hasn’t examined those platforms herself it’s up to other levels of government to adjust regulations accordingly.
Who’s Responsible?
The risks tied up with this type of wagering may be clear but pinpointing which Canadian authority should enforce rules becomes trickier.
The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC), which prohibited Polymarket’s operations states they expect everyone subject under their orders and settlements abide by obligations imposed upon them.
Nevertheless,
the OSC mentions regulation pertaining towards prediction markets ultimately falls under jurisdiction belonging towards Canadian Securities Administrators – which represents provincial regulatory bodies along with CIRO – non-profit entity permitting self-regulation across investment sectors.
Meanwhile,
Canadian Securities Administrators specified CSA members hold responsibility utilizing their “rule-making as well enforcement powers aimed towards safeguarding investors” engaging through respective predictions marketplaces p>LISTEN | Prediction markets manipulation & global geopolitics:
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Platforms including Polymarket & Kalshi enable anonymous individuals placing bets relating virtually anything; recently several individuals profited immensely off speculating about U. S.-Israeli strikes against Iran triggering claims regarding insider trading prompting demands for greater oversight.
Ariel Visconti representing CIRO emphasized existing guidelines surrounding acceptable topics/investment dealers authorized without disclosing further measures planned enhancing regulatory compliance
He wrote: “If an investor utilizes either VPN service/alternative methods circumvent geo-restrictions accessing these platforms then they’re excluded protections applicable while trading via any CIRO sanctioned dealer.”
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