A special weather statement warns of possible multi-day totals exceeding 75 mm before cooler air brings a mix of rain and snow on Thursday.
THUNDER BAY, Ont. – Nov. 3, 2026 – WEATHER – Thunder Bay and Kakabeka Falls are under a special weather statement as one wet system leaves and another one approaches, increasing the chance of water pooling on roads and in low-lying areas through Thursday.
Environment Canada issued a statement at 9:21 p. m. EST Monday indicating that total rainfall over multiple days could surpass 75 millimetres. The path of the next low-pressure system and where the heaviest rain will fall remain uncertain, so rainfall warnings might be issued.
Tuesday Nov 3 Mild with rain and drizzle
Thunder Bay and Kakabeka Falls will see occasional rain mixed with drizzle, with about 5 mm expected and morning fog patches fading away. Temperatures are expected to stay around 13 C, with a low ultraviolet index of 1.
Rain will continue tonight, bringing another 5 to 10 mm. A northeast wind in Thunder Bay will pick up to 20 km/h before morning arrives. Kakabeka Falls will also experience a northeast wind reaching 20 km/h before it calms down after midnight. The overnight low is near 10 C for both locations.
Wednesday Nov 4 Heavier rain returns
Thunder Bay may receive between 15 to 25 mm of rain while reaching temperatures around 15 C. A northeast wind at speeds of about 20 km/h will ease off early in the afternoon.
Kakabeka Falls is also expecting between 15 to 25 mm of rain. A north wind may strengthen to about 20 km/h in the afternoon, with temperatures hovering near 12 C. Rain is likely to continue into Wednesday night, with an overnight low near 7 C in Thunder Bay.
Thursday Nov 5 Rain may mix with snow
As colder air moves in, precipitation is expected to continue. Thunder Bay anticipates periods of rain or snow with a high near 7 C. Kakabeka Falls and nearby inland regions should also see some mix of rain and snow, generally reaching highs around 6 C. Thursday night remains cloudy, presenting a 40 percent chance for either rain showers or flurries, with temperatures close to freezing at around zero or one degree Celsius.
Travel and drainage
Be cautious about water collecting in wheel tracks or clogged drains and low spots on roads. Reduce speed where spray impacts visibility and allow extra space for pedestrians.
The forecast doesn’t confirm that flooding will happen; however, the special weather statement highlights that low-lying areas could be at risk.
Wardrobe
A waterproof shell with a hood, waterproof boots, and an extra dry layer will come in handy through Wednesday. On Thursday add gloves along with an insulating layer since colder rains may mix with wet snow.
Weather trivia
A total rainfall measurement of 75 mm means there’s enough water over every square metre equivalent to filling it up by that many litres. On ground that’s already saturated or poorly drained, such volume can accumulate quickly without needing heavy downpour conditions.
Source note
Main sources include: Environment and Climate Change Canada; Northern Ontario forecast along with extended forecasts issued at 5:30 a. m. EST Nov 3; as well as special weather statements for Thunder Bay city limits along with Kakabeka Falls-Whitefish Lake-Arrow Lake region.
Northern Ontario forecast | Northern Ontario extended forecast | Thunder Bay special weather statement | Kakabeka Falls special weather statement
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