In the six weeks since Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to the European Parliament, the United States has significantly warmed up to Russia.
Just days after Carney got back to Canada, U. S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio invited Vladimir Putin of Russia to attend the G20 summit in Miami this December. Then on Oct. 9, the U. S. lifted sanctions on Russian oil and announced a deal to purchase diesel directly from Russia.
Some experts believe that Trump’s growing closeness with Russia represents a real threat to Canadians – one that can’t be easily mitigated by forming stronger ties with allies across the ocean.
“This is not Trump playing footsie with Putin,” said Vincent Rigby, who served as national security and intelligence adviser to the prime minister until 2021. “This is something far, far more serious, and strategically, this can’t help but be a concern.”
Last week on the White House South Lawn, Trump drew comparisons between Canada and Ukraine during a bragging session following a call with Carney: “Just like I told Zelenskyy, we have all the cards.”
While Trump has ramped up his criticisms of Canada on the campaign trail, his approach toward Ukraine goes beyond mere words.
In Trump’s one-sided “energy ceasefire,” Ukraine was expected to refrain from striking Russian refineries while Russia continued attacking Ukrainian electrical facilities.
Then there was a slowdown in Starlink/Starshield services followed by finger-pointing between the White House and Elon Musk over who made that decision. The U. S. also seemed to stop providing alerts about incoming ballistic missiles, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remarked that Trump is making it tougher for them to get Patriot missiles.
WATCH | Carney on Ukraine’s restricted access to Space X technology:
Carney says he is ‘concerned’ about reported Starlink slowdown in Ukraine
Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed concern regarding the reported slowdown of Space X’s Starlink satellite system in Ukraine, which led to ‘real consequences.’ He stated Canadians also ‘do not want to be caught in a situation where we are reliant on one provider that may change their view’ and jeopardize Canadian sovereignty.
“It’s been unbelievable,” said Rob Huebert, director of the Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary. “These actions can only be characterized as Trump trying to cause Ukraine to lose the war.”
Washington also reportedly pressured European nations into releasing billions of Euros in frozen Russian assets while Trump signed an executive order waiving sanctions against Russia set to take effect two days later.
Maria Popova, an expert on Russia at Mc Gill University and author of *Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories, Diverging States*, claims that during its first year in office, Trump’s second administration aimed for America to take a more neutral stance in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine.
She believes it now seems like Trump is preparing for an open alliance with Putin.
“We have to start thinking about where this trajectory ends up eventually,” she stated. “And it ends in the U. S. directly helping Russia’s war effort.”
Rigby mentions that closer ties between U. S. and Russia bring immediate worries about Arctic sovereignty and “could be the end of NORAD in a worst-case scenario,” referring to joint efforts by Canada and America in protecting airspace sovereignty.
Huebert suggests that lifting oil sanctions alongside the diesel deal could cynically be seen as a short-term strategy aimed at soothing American voters upset about rising gas prices.
“For him to try reducing diesel prices right before midterms – you might disagree completely but at least you can see why he’s doing it,” he noted.
Strongman summit in Shenzhen
A proposed meeting involving Trump , Putinand Chinese President Xi Jinping next monthhas sparked longstanding worriesabout Trump ’s desireto replace America’spostwar networkof allianceswitha new global division amongthree strongmen. p >Trumphasshown openness tothe Russian proposal.“Obviously, thisismusicto Putin’sears,”said Popova. p >Kremlin foreignpolicy aide Yuri Ushakovsaidon Sundaythatpreparationshavebegunforthetriangularsummitonthe sidelinesofthe Nov.18 -19APECsummitin Shenzhen , China. p >Huebertsays Russianshave long pitchedtheideaofsuperpowerspheres ofinfluence , inwhich Washington, Moscowand Beijingwouldallagreeonstayingoutof eachother ’sbackyards. Lesser powerswould haveto findamodusvivendiwiththeregionalhegemon. p >“Wereallyneedtobepushingagainst suchatravesty,”said Popova,“becausethenextmeetingof threeof themwillbetodecidethe fateof Canadaor Taiwan. So wedon’twantthispatters toerbegin.” p >Trumpenvoy Witkoff praises’humanitarian’Putinatmeetingin Russia p>USspecialenvoy Steve Witkoff praised Russian President Vladimir Putinas‘humanitarian’atameetingin St. Petersburgaimedatendingthe Ukrainewar , despite no Ukrainianpresenceatthetable. USofficialslatersuggested Putinisopento trilateralmeetingswith Washingtonand Kyiv.
But Canada can’t alterits geography. Itlacksone keyadvantageover Ukraine, becauseitdoesn’thave landborderswithfour EUnations, makingresupplydifficult. Incaseofreal threats orhostilitiesfromthe U. S., Canadawouldmostlybealone.
Luckilyfor Canadians, trump’snegativeattitude toward Canadadoesn’treflectmost Americans views. Forquite some time, Amercanshaven’ttrusted Trump todo therightthingabout Russia, and that’salso truewithinhisownparty. Americans, includingsome Republicans, don’tliketrump’s tradewar with Canada.
Besides, trumpisn’tlikelytobeaslastingasa figureasputinhasbeen. Unlesshecanupendthe U. S. Constitution, rightnow he hasjust26monthsleft.
However, Rigby anticipates those months willbe turbulent:”Youmightseeapresidentafternextweekwho’s evenmore reckless less restrainedandaggressive.”
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