By Fen Osler Hampson
June 20, 2026
The agreement that Donald Trump put together with Iran’s leaders might seem unrelated to Canada’s talks about the future of CUSMA.
Yet, the Iran deal, rushed through under heavy economic pressure, presents three important lessons for Ottawa: know your bargaining power, grasp what really concerns Trump, and don’t give in too soon.
On the surface, both Iran and Canada look like smaller negotiating partners against a much stronger United States. But in reality, each has advantages that Washington cannot overlook.
For Iran, its key advantage (to tweak the president’s favorite negotiating phrase) was its control over the Strait of Hormuz, an essential route for global oil shipments. By closing this strait, Tehran significantly raised energy prices and unsettled international markets. The main trade-off in the memorandum reflects this truth.
Iran stops threatening shipping in the strait. In exchange, the United States ends its naval blockade and offers relief from sanctions along with reconstruction funds. Why? Because America can’t afford a prolonged squeeze on oil.
Canada’s advantage in CUSMA discussions is different but equally substantial. It lies in our vital role as a supplier of intermediate goods and resources to the U. S. economy.
Canadian steel and aluminum are key components in American cars, airplanes, missiles, beer cans-basically anything requiring these materials. Canadian crude oil fuels U. S. refineries. Canadian electricity powers New York and other regions relying on cross-border power transfers. Canadian potash supports North American food production.
When Trump imposes tariffs on these materials, he isn’t outsmarting Ottawa; he’s hurting his own producers and consumers by raising costs across U. S. supply chains already battered by rising energy prices-prices that won’t go back to normal anytime soon.
This damage is self-inflicted. Trump also has the authority to stop it by removing those tariffs. That’s where Ottawa needs to apply pressure at a time when Americans are feeling real financial strain.
The second lesson from the Iran deal is that with Trump, it’s all about the economy-just like they say: “it’s the economy, stupid.”
Iran’s leverage didn’t come from missiles or drones aimed at Israel and its Gulf neighbors; it stemmed from an inflationary shock caused by soaring energy prices. As oil markets tightened and threats remained over Hormuz’s safety, Trump began sounding less like a confident commander-in-chief and more like someone facing political disaster.
Trump himself admitted during his last press conference in Évian that if conflict continued disrupting oil supplies for four more weeks, we would be staring down a global depression.
Ottawa needs to convince Trump that lifting tariffs and stabilizing CUSMA is his best defense against that nightmare.
This candid admission comes from a president who has built his image around economic success. He didn’t want to become America’s twenty-first-century Herbert Hoover.
“So rather than possibly going into a depression, rather than having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover – he was always the one I didn’t want to be,” Trump said of the 31st president.”
Hoover is remembered not for causing the Great Depression but for failing to prevent or lessen it-and Trump clearly fears being labeled similarly. With strategic petroleum reserves dwindling amid price shocks from war while recession looms closer every day-the risk feels very real now.
Canada’s negotiators must connect that same fear to North American trade dynamics. With ongoing tensions in the Gulf region still unresolved, Ottawa should show Trump that easing tariffs while stabilizing CUSMA serves as effective insurance against his biggest fears.
A steady flow of Canadian oil can help temper future price increases. If he pays for it-a Keystone pipeline coupled with opening up Gordie Howe bridge will strengthen continental supply lines further down the road ahead.
Lower input costs through reduced tariffs on Canadian steel/aluminum plus access critical minerals could ease inflation pressures while boosting productivity as well-all while keeping him out from underneath Hoover’s shadow! The third lesson centers around resilience under pressure-Iran didn’t give up at first signs of hardship as bombs rained down upon them-they timed their moves carefully extracting significant sanctions relief paired with financial commitments instead trading away time-limited ceasefires slowly reopening routes through Hormuz gradually afterwards too!
However , it should be noted they may have played their cards too shrewdly-backlash looms back home after all regarding paying excessively high costs just so they could finalize agreements many view within D. C., which appear flimsy indeed.. Thus triggering future negotiations toughening resolve between parties involved if attempts made dragging things out during discussions.
For Canada within these talks-the urge will arise accepting subpar deals quickly based solely off “any bad deal beats no deal” perspective hanging like Damocles’ sword overhead influencing political uncertainty looming constantly above economies everywhere alike![..]
This mindset proves dangerous hence why Prime Minister Mark Carney maintains position stating simply “no deal trumps bad deals!”
While bluster surrounds possible tearing apart existing arrangements such as CUSMA-truth remains even if achievable without Congress’ nod complete withdrawal would strike fragile US economy hard hitting tightly integrated markets severely affecting autos/agriculture/manufacturing sectors generating shockwaves felt throughout Midwest communities depending heavily upon Republican fortunes remaining stable therein too!
If we box ourselves into unfair agreements now simply placating fear then next presidency might enforce terms strictly thus ensuring detrimental outcomes later down track.. best strategy keeps heads low continuing negotiations showing strength patience clarity concerning leverage displayed overall
At this table-it serves better mimicking Tehran instead resembling Washington ultimately!
Policy Contributing Writer Fen Osler Hampson , FRSC serves Chancellor Professor/Professor International Affairs Carleton University also presides World Refugee & Migration Council co-chair Expert Group focusing Canada-US Relations.
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Lower input costs through reduced tariffs on Canadian steel/aluminum plus access critical minerals could ease inflation pressures while boosting productivity as well-all while keeping him out from underneath Hoover’s shadow! The third lesson centers around resilience under pressure-Iran didn’t give up at first signs of hardship as bombs rained down upon them-they timed their moves carefully extracting significant sanctions relief paired with financial commitments instead trading away time-limited ceasefires slowly reopening routes through Hormuz gradually afterwards too!
However , it should be noted they may have played their cards too shrewdly-backlash looms back home after all regarding paying excessively high costs just so they could finalize agreements many view within D. C., which appear flimsy indeed.. Thus triggering future negotiations toughening resolve between parties involved if attempts made dragging things out during discussions.
For Canada within these talks-the urge will arise accepting subpar deals quickly based solely off “any bad deal beats no deal” perspective hanging like Damocles’ sword overhead influencing political uncertainty looming constantly above economies everywhere alike![..]
This mindset proves dangerous hence why Prime Minister Mark Carney maintains position stating simply “no deal trumps bad deals!”
While bluster surrounds possible tearing apart existing arrangements such as CUSMA-truth remains even if achievable without Congress’ nod complete withdrawal would strike fragile US economy hard hitting tightly integrated markets severely affecting autos/agriculture/manufacturing sectors generating shockwaves felt throughout Midwest communities depending heavily upon Republican fortunes remaining stable therein too!
If we box ourselves into unfair agreements now simply placating fear then next presidency might enforce terms strictly thus ensuring detrimental outcomes later down track.. best strategy keeps heads low continuing negotiations showing strength patience clarity concerning leverage displayed overall
At this table-it serves better mimicking Tehran instead resembling Washington ultimately!
Policy Contributing Writer Fen Osler Hampson , FRSC serves Chancellor Professor/Professor International Affairs Carleton University also presides World Refugee & Migration Council co-chair Expert Group focusing Canada-US Relations.
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