When it comes to figuring out how the midterms might turn out, actions really do speak louder than words. The way the GOP is currently spending money contradicts the president’s claim of a Republican win just weeks away.
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With three weeks left before the midterms and polls indicating that Democrats are well positioned to gain at least one chamber of Congress, Donald Trump and other leading Republicans are trying to seem confident. However, their actions-especially regarding which races they choose to support financially-tell a different story.
The president, who often dismisses any poll showing him with low approval ratings as “fake,” recently claimed that the belief in a looming Democratic victory is part of a conspiracy.
“The Dumocrats, along with their partners in crime, the Fake News Media, are trying to create the false narrative that, Donald Trump is so ‘unpopular,’ the Republicans are going to lose,” he posted on his social media site. “Actually, it’s just the opposite. I’m so ‘popular,’ that the Republicans are going to WIN, and that’s being proven by the Record Setting Rallies we’re doing.”
However, this optimistic outlook isn’t reflected in how his MAGA Inc. super PAC or even Trump’s own schedule has been set up.
This October, many of Trump’s rallies have taken place in states he won comfortably in 2024 but where Republicans now find themselves needing to defend Senate seats.
So far this month, Trump has visited Texas and Ohio twice each while also making stops in Oklahoma, Alabama, Nebraska, Tennessee, and Alaska. He had won all these states by significant margins two years ago. Now though, four of them have very competitive Senate races on hand.
The one exception was New York where Trump spoke last week.
MAGA Inc. is also having to play defense here. The super PAC associated with Trump is backing away from one of the few races where Republicans had hoped they could unseat a vulnerable Democratic incumbent and instead focusing on safeguarding districts where Trump previously won by 10 percent or more.
This shift truly reflects how things are shaping up politically right now. Democrats are actively trying to expand their influence wherever they can afford it while GOP efforts seem more like damage control.
You can see this clearly in Senate races where Republicans need to protect over half a dozen seats they already hold (and they’ve practically given up on North Carolina). In contrast, Democrats realistically only need to focus their attention on Michigan.
A prime example illustrating how these midterms feel is Texas. By all indications when everything settles down post-election season; it seems likely that Republicans along with allies like Elon Musk will have spent hundreds of millions aiming to preserve a Senate seat held by them for over 60 years.
The reason for turning attention toward Senate battles lies in how control of House seems close enough to tipping into favor for Democrats.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) mentioned recently he sees losing majority as an “unlikely scenario,” yet Republican groups appear ready to concede three districts critical for avoiding Democratic wins.
At this point what keeps them hopeful is probably that Democrats won’t have sufficient resources available across every district they could potentially win.
In upcoming weeks expect more examples of Republicans stepping back from certain districts while reinforcing others as a means stop losses. And residents living in areas once red will start seeing campaign ads again after years without them.
One person who’ll notice those ads will be Trump himself.
The Congressional Leadership Fund-the super PAC connected with Johnson-was recently compelled into spending $2 million on ads aimed at protecting a seat which was previously secured by 10 points during 2024 elections in West Palm Beach.
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