OTTAWA – Three federal byelections are happening on Monday in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia.
Two of these ridings are generally viewed as solid Liberal territory, both previously held by former cabinet ministers. In Quebec, where voters had opted for a Conservative candidate four times in a row, the Tories might face challenges in keeping their seat.
Let’s take a closer look at the three contests.
North Vancouver-Capilano
Former Trudeau-era cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson stepped down from his position in June to take on a diplomatic role in Europe. He garnered nearly 60 percent of the votes during the April 2025 election.
The Liberals have selected Braeden Caley as their candidate, who previously worked as a senior staff member for Mark Carney and has returned to his home province to run for office in Ottawa.
The Conservative contender is Stephen Curran, a commercial lawyer who finished second to Wilkinson in 2025 with just over 33 percent of the vote. He’s been running social media ads questioning Caley’s ties to the local community.
In the last election cycle, NDP support dipped significantly nationwide as voters reflected on potential trade war consequences with the U. S., resulting in them finishing third with just over four percent of the votes. Stephen Tweedale, an NDP staffer for the local MLA, is now carrying the party’s banner in this byelection.
Beaches-East York
Nate Erskine-Smith’s political future is still up in the air; however, he has confirmed he won’t be representing this Toronto-area seat anymore. Elected first in 2015 and known for being quite vocal during his time there, he briefly served as a cabinet minister but resigned after choosing to run for provincial leadership-a position he no longer seeks after losing earlier this year.
Tanveer Shahnawaz, who was Erskine-Smith’s constituency office manager before this byelection, will be running for the Liberals here.
Erskine-Smith won decisively with more than 67 percent of votes back in 2025-23 points ahead of his Conservative opponent.
This time around Shannon Devine is back as the NDP candidate; she was an activist and labor leader who came third last time. Jim Sybros will represent the Conservatives.
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
This rural riding situated about 200 kilometers north of Quebec City had a close race back in April 2025.
The incumbent Richard Martel-a former junior hockey coach-secured four consecutive elections for Conservatives narrowly defeating candidates from Bloc Québécois and Liberals.
This spring marked Martel becoming one of five Conservative MPs who left Pierre Poilievre’s caucus when Carney nominated him for Senate consideration.
The Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil is a dairy farmer and past president of a provincial dairy association seeking election now.
Trade issues involving Trump have wide-ranging effects
Political science professor Daniel Béland from Mc Gill University stated that Chicoutimi-Le Fjord is definitely one race worth watching on Monday.
This region has felt significant impacts from U. S President Donald Trump’s tariffs due to its strong aluminum production and forestry sectors alongside numerous dairy farmers caught up amid these trade tensions caused by American discontent with Canada’s supply management system.
<p“Donald Trump is extremely unpopular in Quebec, and I think that most Quebecers believe Mark Carney’s explanation that the Americans were asking for too much,” Béland noted.
A recent poll conducted by Angus Reid Institute found that three-quarters of Canadians agree with how our government handled trade talks-and notably higher at 85 percent support among Quebec residents specifically regarding walking away from negotiations last weekend.
“If there is to be an impact which there may well be that impact is more likely to be advantageous (for the Liberals) than disadvantageous,” Kurl added regarding how these sentiments could sway results during byelections.
Béland suggested if either Bloc or Liberals win Chicoutimi-Le Fjord it would spell further trouble ahead for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
If they end up landing distantly behind say third place it only reinforces narratives suggesting that Poilievre’s leadership isn’t boosting party appeal.” However he pointed out Martel’s personal popularity played favorably into securing tight wins previously.
Kurl also emphasized how ongoing discussions surrounding Trump’s tariffs remain challenging topics especially impacting Tory sentiments among constituents stating “Conservatives are evenly divided as to whether they think what Mr. Carneyand his negotiators did was right or wrong.”
Kurl issued caution noting summer byelections tend towards unpredictability typically seeing lower turnout rates while additionally factoring growing interest surrounding current provincial campaigns underway complicating voter focus even further.
The stakes seem lowered compared against earlier contests; back then Liberal success secured their majority at174 seats thanks via three successful byelections along courting cross-floor defections amongst five opposition members.
Sundays tally indicates six seats remain vacant within House composition; current standings show Liberals maintain170 members following ongoing vacancy situation whereas Conservatives hold139 followed closely by Blocat21 seats leaving NDPwithfive reps overall including Green Party Leader Elizabeth May standing alone amidst dwindling representation.
Monday will fill three out those six available slots allowing upcoming months brings additional potential future calls across anotherthree ridings pending review process timeline.
This report by The Canadian Press first appeared August30th 2026.
Sarah Ritchie The Canadian Press
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