Unpacking Canada’s Extreme Summer Weather

If you look closely at almost any region in Canada this summer, you’ll probably notice folks dealing with all sorts of wild weather.

Severe storms in Western Canada have led to significant flooding, especially in Manitoba. Parts of Ontario, Quebec, and B. C. have faced heat waves and thunderstorm warnings, while the North has been hit hard by wildfires – and that’s just scratching the surface.

This week alone, a storm damaged a home in southwest Winnipeg, knocking down fences and scattering barbecues across yards. Kingston, Ont., was under a tornado warning for a short time on Tuesday, while celebrations for Canada Day in Ottawa were canceled due to thunderstorms and flooding.

“We’ve had a lot of wild weather,” said Jennifer Smith, an Ottawa-based meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Many climate experts are forecasting an unusually strong El Niño this year that is expected to peak during the winter. But already this summer has brought chaos and destruction for many Canadians. So what’s really happening?

How jet stream, El Niño could impact weather

When it comes to this summer’s weather patterns, it’s still too early to draw any definite conclusions, according to Barrie Bonsal, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada based in Saskatoon.

El Niño conditions – which occur when the surface waters of the central to eastern tropical Pacific are warmer than normal – were officially noted on June 11 by the U. S. Climate Prediction Center.

“Canada has a very variable climate. It’s usually hot somewhere, cold somewhere else, wet in one area while dry elsewhere,” he explained. “It’s a vast country and that’s just how it is.”

Cross Country Checkup is asking: How are floods, wildfires and extreme weather events changing your summer? Leave your comment here and we may read it or call you back for Sunday’s show.

The jet stream might be contributing to the unusual summer weather as well.

This refers to the fast-moving air boundary high up in the atmosphere that flows from west to east and separates colder air from the north from warmer air coming from the south.

If it gets stuck in one position – like it has recently – that can lead to different types of extreme weather in various areas such as heat waves or droughts.

WATCH | What to know about the ‘super’ El Niño being predicted this year:

What exactly is a ‘super’ El Niño? And what does it mean for you?

Some climate models predict that 2026 will also be an El Niño year – possibly one that is quite intense. CBC’s Nick Logan explains what this means for Canadians moving forward.

We’re transitioning from several cooler La Niña years into a stronger El Niño phase now which can help explain some of this summer’s turmoil said Doug Gillham, senior meteorologist at The Weather Network since typically El Niño impacts are felt more strongly during winter here in Canada.

“The changes we’re seeing don’t happen without bumps,” he mentioned. “Spring’s always unpredictable but this year’s roller coaster seems even wilder …and it’s not done yet.”

The anticipated “super” El Niño could worsen extreme weather patterns causing certain areas to swing between severe droughts and heavy rainfall. In Canada though, it often results in milder winters along with fewer hurricanes impacting the Atlantic region.

Don Letkeman walks through his flooded basement on Montgomery Avenue in Stonewall, Man., on June 10. (John Woods/ )

What else to expect

This summer experts predict Western Canada’s temperatures will stay consistently warm – particularly drier conditions are likely for southern regions according to .

While there may be dry spells ahead Gillham noted droughts remain unlikely across Prairies but they do remain concerning parts of B. C.

The temperature along regions from Great Lakes right through Maritimes should cool slightly compared against current heat wave conditions people face now.

However that doesn’t guarantee us perfect storm-free days ahead either! As usual when forecasting things there aren’t any certainties: “The roller coaster will settle down but won’t completely stop.”WATCH | Ottawa deals with fallout from Canada Day storm:

Ottawa mayor says city facing flurry of post-storm callsThe Mayor Mark Sutcliffe indicated his city was responding quickly helping those affected including residents dealing with flooded basements as well as power outages following powerful storms around July 1st.

As winter approaches another potential impact stemming from El Nino involves wetter conditions seen throughout southern U. S.-there’s small chance moisture could make its way up north reaching southern Prairies added Bonsal although he remarked “I wouldn’t bet on it.”

How you can prepare

All three experts agree staying updated plays crucial role preparing oneself amidst changing climates over these months; ensure proper hydration especially during extreme heat warned Smith advising folks find cool places check up on vulnerable individuals whenever possible.

Meanwhile if thunderstorms arise nearby move indoors without delay suggested Smith “When thunder roars go indoors.”

Bonsal recommends looking back at historical data providing guidance regarding expectations upcoming seasons while remaining ready potentially facing higher intensity warmer trends over future years too.

He mentions frequently hearing comments stating people have never experienced anything like current climate situations before indicating change could signify something stronger impacts approaching us soon enough!

An aerial photo of a wildfire burning outside Fort Simpson N. W. T., on June 29.(Submitted by N. W. T Fire)

How does climate change factor into things?

There isn’t straightforward connection made between global warming events like el nino naturally occurring however researchers note rising temperatures may amplify strength behind these occurrences says bonsal who focused Ph. D thesis discussing phenomenon itself

“We are poking Mother Nature stick bit here warming atmosphere,” he continued

Smith similarly believes climate change plays significant part shaping our summertime conditions today saying,

“Canada is warming at roughly double rate globally close four times rate Arctic,” she asserted pointing out how intensifies baseline driving extremes record breaking heats erratic precipitation nationwide “

Gillham urges caution against attributing every single pattern directly related only specific factors comparing understanding sports teams wins losses rather complex reasoning involved connecting multitude variables present thus rarely identifying singular player responsible matters

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