June 21, 2026
The latest results from Abacus Data’s federal political tracking show that the changes we noted earlier this month haven’t continued.
A survey conducted two weeks ago indicated a drop in optimism about the country, lower approval for the government, softer ratings for Prime Minister Mark Carney, and a narrowing lead for the Liberals. However, this new data suggests that decline hasn’t persisted.
Government approval has risen slightly. Carney’s personal ratings remain unchanged. The Liberal vote share is nearly identical to what it was two weeks ago. Canadians are now a bit more optimistic about where the country is headed compared to early June.
Overall, the data implies that the downturn in public opinion observed earlier this month hasn’t intensified. Yet, it hasn’t fully reversed either. Instead, voters seem to have settled into a fairly stable state of mind.
This is significant because the previous survey raised concerns about whether increasing economic worries, discussions around energy policy, and general uncertainty about Canada’s economic future had disrupted government momentum. While these concerns still exist, they haven’t caused a lasting decline in support for the government.
It’s worth noting that most of this survey was completed before news broke about a new agreement between the United States and Iran and many interviews took place prior to the G7 meetings held in France.
For now, the political scene looks quite similar to how it did two weeks ago: a Liberal government with decent approval ratings, a Prime Minister who remains notably more popular than his main competitor, and an opposition that continues struggling to turn dissatisfaction into broader electoral backing.
Direction of the Country: Optimism Rises Slightly but Sentiment Is Mixed
Currently, 42% of Canadians feel that the country is moving in the right direction while 44% believe it’s on the wrong path.
This marks a slight improvement from two weeks ago when only 40% felt positive about Canada’s direction and 45% thought it was headed downwards.
Pessimism dominates views on global issues; just 13% think things are going well worldwide while 74% say they’re heading in the wrong direction. Perceptions of America are similarly bleak with only 14% feeling optimistic compared to 77% who believe it’s not on track.
The contrast between how Canadians view their own country versus global events remains large. People here generally feel much better about Canada than they do regarding international happenings.
Seniors tend to be more hopeful; half of Canadians aged 60 and older think things are going well here compared to just 35% of those aged 18 to 29. Additionally, Liberal supporters overwhelmingly see positive aspects regarding Canada’s future while only 21% of Conservative backers share that sentiment.
The takeaway here is although optimism has rebounded slightly since its dip earlier this month, Canadians remain divided on where things stand and aren’t entirely positive about what lies ahead.
The Cost of Living Continues To Dominate Discussions
The cost of living remains by far the top concern among Canadians today.
Two-thirds (66%) rate it as one of their three biggest issues facing Canada currently-this figure hasn’t changed since two weeks ago. Following closely behind are economy at 39%, healthcare at 35%, housing affordability at 34%, and Donald Trump with his administration at 31%.
What stands out is how little shift there has been in priorities among voters recently.
Despite ongoing debates surrounding economic conditions like inflation or housing challenges as well as international affairs concerns , Canadians continue prioritizing largely similar issues they’ve recognized over recent months.
The Liberals still hold advantages among voters concerned with healthcare , climate change , inequality , Indigenous reconciliation , housing costs , and worries related specifically towards Donald Trump. Conversely , Conservatives dominate areas related directly toward immigration matters , crime/safety & threats posed by both China/Russia.
Perhaps most importantly though -the Liberals remain competitive amongst economically-focused individuals ; when considering those ranking “economy” high priority-they actually maintain narrow edge over Conservatives. A similar trend holds true within specific category focusing primarily upon costs associated living expenses too!
Federal Government Approval Bumps Up Slightly
Approval rating for federal leadership under Mark Carney shows modest gains compared against our previous study!
Right now-55 % approve job being done by current administration whereas only thirty percent disapprove! This indicates three point increase from last time alongside one point drop-off within disapprovals percentage !
These figures place governmental approvals returning close towards levels witnessed throughout much spring season suggesting initial decline witnessed previously may’ve merely represented temporary pause rather than onset enduring downward trajectory !
Notably however-a majority demographic groups outside traditional conservative base continue showing favorable sentiments towards administration indicating strong support remains intact across diverse regions !
Since taking office-Carney has largely benefitted due perceptions viewing his governance providing stability during uncertain times globally! Latest analysis indicates such beliefs appear consistent overall !
Carney Holds Steady Advantage Over Poilievre
Mark carney’s individual ratings display virtually no significant change from fortnight prior!
Presently -51 % Canucks maintain favorable impression regarding prime minister whilst merely thirty percent harbor negative views resulting net favorability score sitting +21!
That reflects same net value recorded previously back then!
Performance wise -Carney tends especially excel within Quebec region Atlantic provinces Ontario plus appeal resonates strongly older generations too scoring impressive nets respectively +38 & +36 numbers therein!
Pierre poilievre meanwhile sees marginal adjustments occurring lately.
-Presently -38 % recognize him positively relative forty-four perceive negatively culminating net score negative six overall.
The central theme thus revolves around steadiness instead movement!
No leader experienced notable shifts concerning their public standings over past few weeks-mark carney prevails significantly outshining pierre poilievre even though latter maintains solid backing exclusively from conservative circles yet struggles expanding appeal beyond core supporter base!
NDP chief Avi Lewis also presents stagnation reflected through net impression tally -8.
The leadership environment appears strikingly alike as observed beginning June period without major alterations visible thus far !
Liberals Continue National Lead
If elections were conducted right now-the liberals would garner approximately forty-five percent committed vote against thirty-seven responding conservatives! NDP sits steady at nine followed closely b Qébécois holding six & greens trailing behind contributing solely two percentages overall! img loading=’lazy’ decoding=’async’ width=’1024′ height=’576′ src=’ %%URL_7 %% ‘alt=”class=’ wp-image-93073 ‘ />
This establishes an eight-point national lead favoring liberals presently !
Comparatively speaking vis-a-vis previous surveys both liberal/conservative increased incrementally albeit very modestly gaining single points respectively whilst NDP declined two markers henceforth!
Liberals thrive particularly across ontario/quebec/bc/atlantic regions whereas conservatives dominate decisively primarily located alberta/saskatchewan/manitoba territories !
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