Ed Davey is set to argue that the UK should have its own nuclear deterrent, as relying on the US is no longer viable.
In his upcoming speech at the Liberal Democrats spring conference, he will propose that Britain needs to produce and manage its nuclear arsenal domestically, a decision he admits will require significant financial investment.
This speech comes alongside his concerns that US President Donald Trump has made support for European security dependent on his personal preferences.
“While Trump is in charge, we certainly cannot rely on America as a dependable ally in the way we used to,” Davey will say. “And we can no longer bet our nation’s security on the hope that the US won’t produce new versions of Trump in the future.
“So the real question is not whether we should build a sovereign British nuclear deterrent. The question is what happens if we don’t.”
In principle, a UK prime minister could decide to launch nuclear missiles without needing approval from allies like the US.
However, Britain’s Trident nuclear program, located at Faslane near Glasgow on the River Clyde, heavily relies on American support. The weapons are built in the US and need regular maintenance there.
Ed Davey answering questions during the Liberal Democrats spring conference in York on Saturday. Photograph: James Manning/PA
Davey’s address is likely part of what some have called Operation Epsom Fury – a nod to Trump’s actions regarding Iran and an effort to win over voters who are frustrated with Britain’s ties to him ahead of local elections in May.
“If our answer to ‘Is our nuclear deterrent working?’ depends on what Donald Trump had for breakfast, then it’s clear it’s not working. Our deterrent isn’t truly independent,” Davey plans to tell delegates in York.
“This should keep British defense planners awake at night. Yet this topic isn’t being discussed loudly enough in public forums. Maybe it’s because commentators who back Conservative or Reform parties don’t want to confront Trump’s serious implications.”
“Our nuclear deterrent – which successive governments have called fundamental to our national defense – isn’t entirely ours.”
“The Trident missiles aboard our Vanguard submarines are leased from America. Their upkeep relies on US facilities. This means our deterrent’s effectiveness ultimately hinges on whoever occupies the Oval Office.”
“A few years back, this didn’t seem like a concern. Now it certainly does.”
Davey will point out Trump’s threat concerning Greenland and his lack of accountability towards Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine as proof that he is becoming an unreliable partner.
“He and his administration have made it clear that American backing for European security comes with conditions,” Davey will say. “Conditions based on whether Europe meets Trump’s demands regarding trade, relations with China or simply being nice to him. It has nothing to do with values and alliances that have kept us secure for 80 years.”
Davey is expected to admit that developing an independent nuclear capability would “cost billions over the next two decades” when defense budgets are already stretched thin.
Nevertheless, he’ll argue against “handing billions of taxpayers’ money over to American defense contractors” and suggest investing those funds into British industries instead.
“Let’s invest in UK science and manufacturing, enhance our defense sector, and ensure we have a completely independent deterrent we can depend on regardless of who sits in the Oval Office,” he intends to say.
The Liberal Democrats maintain their commitment toward achieving multilateral nuclear disarmament.
Yet Davey will assert: “With Vladimir Putin holding more than 5,000 nuclear warheads, we must face reality as it stands. Trump’s unpredictable presidency – along with recognizing that we can’t assume America will always be there for us – poses challenges we need to tackle head-on.”
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