It’s not every day that Keir Starmer’s supporters feel he has Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch on the defensive – but regarding Iran, they believe he’s aligning with both history and public sentiment.
“This could be a turning point for him,” said Emily Thornberry, Labour’s chair of the foreign affairs committee, who was quick to express her view that Donald Trump’s attacks on Iran were unlawful. “You haven’t seen a British prime minister refuse an American president since Vietnam. This is significant.”
Following the lengthy troubles in Iraq and Afghanistan, many people have been strongly against assisting the US in attempts to instigate regime change in another nation.
Starmer has aimed for a balanced approach – initially denying permission for the US to use British bases for strikes but later allowing them to utilize them defensively to take out Iranian missiles. This stance has drawn criticism from Trump while earning public approval in the UK, boosting morale among those in the Labour party who think he’s following his own political instincts.
A US B-1B Lancer bomber takes off from RAF Fairford, Gloucestershire, on 13 March. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
One Labour MP noted that Starmer becoming more critical of the US strikes after several days made them feel like they “see this person as the genuine Starmer – closer to Robin Cook than Tony Blair” on these issues.
In contrast, Farage and Badenoch quickly claimed Starmer wasn’t doing enough to back the joint US-Israel strikes. The leader of Reform UK stated when hostilities began: “We should do all we can to support the operation.”
However, as fuel prices soared and public sentiment shifted against military action over the past week, both adjusted their stances. A You Gov poll revealed this week that 60% of Britons oppose military action, while just 25% support it.
Badenoch now denies any intention for Britain to join the conflict and asserts she only wanted assistance in eliminating Iranian missiles. Meanwhile, Farage staged an event at a petrol station promising a discount of 25 pence per litre of fuel and claiming: “If we can’t even defend Cyprus, let’s not get involved in another foreign war.”
One senior Conservative remarked: “We’ve looked confused and our messaging has been poor. But most of us on the right believe Starmer was entirely wrong not to back Trump initially; sticking to our beliefs is what we should do regardless of public opinion.”
Andrew Mitchell, an experienced Conservative figure and former deputy foreign secretary, labeled rejecting Trump’s request a “very big mistake,” suggesting that over time it would prove not to be in Britain’s best interest.
“The US is our closest ally and friend; when the president sought our help with using joint bases – primarily for refueling – we should have said yes,” he stated. “It’s really embarrassing that Starmer declined based on dubious legal advice; this shows he thinks like a lawyer rather than a political leader.”
While most people are against war, polls indicate Conservative voters are almost evenly divided. Supporters of Reform are more likely than others to favor involvement in Iran but still harbor an isolationist faction within their hard-right base supporting Rupert Lowe’s view – a former Reform MP now independent – that it is “not our fight.” The fear of appearing too pro-war or pro-Trump seems to have led both right-wing parties to soften their initial messages.
Yet Alan Mendoza, Reform’s chief adviser on global matters and executive director at the Henry Jackson Society think tank said their party still sees Starmer as wrong for denying Trump’s request while maintaining Farage had remained consistent throughout.
“He would have agreed immediately if America asked him that question from day one. And naturally, he would also ensure British bases were secured,” Mendoza explained while adding no one ever suggested or supported joining offensive bombing or ground invasions.
He also questioned whether polling was addressing appropriate queries about backing Iranian military actions and proposed framing questions around Britain’s strategic interests in supporting an ally might yield more favorable results.
Nevertheless, officials within Downing Street feel confident they’ve hit upon the right strategy here; internal polling reflects support for Starmer’s approach. One senior figure there remarked: “[Reform mayor] Andrea Jenkyns considering boots on ground is definitely incorrect.”
Labour’s position also aids understanding any potential impacts on living costs. “Clearly how blame gets assigned involves various factors; however we can say this exactly illustrates why we don’t think involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts is wise,” they noted.
The Iran conflict has led to a rise in petrol prices, further squeezing Britons struggling with the cost of living. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA
Other prominent Labour MPs are pondering whether Starmer would have taken similar steps blocking US use of military bases had Peter Mandelson still been ambassador or his ally Morgan Mc Sweeney remained chief of staff.
Ben Judah , a former adviser under David Lammy during his tenure as foreign secretary observed that right-wing parties got into trouble because they essentially decided early on to employ that old tactic questioning ‘have you damaged our special relationship?’ as ammunition against the prime minister.
He added:“I believe due mainly to their leadership’s lack of experience in foreign policy combined with limited curiosity beyond Westminster they assumed this would play out like some kind of Venezuela-style quick story.”
“Instead it’s turned out to be weeks-long disturbance affecting global economies which voters genuinely care about – especially evident at petrol stations – leading them toward shifting positions.”“For Tories,”he said,”it appears derived from losing valuable foreign policy skills since transitioning into opposition while highlighting Farage having difficulties concerning America.”“Trump 2.0 isn’t operating similarly compared to how he campaigned,”Judah asserted.”His campaign revolved around isolationism aiming instead at world peace.”“We’ve witnessed Reform attempt professionalizing themselves becoming a legitimate conservative contender morphing from past Ukip isolationists toward adopting more neoconservatives along with American alignment.” “That neocon tradition remains functional when America behaves beneficially towards your politician by praising him or being perceived flourishing however it’s now presenting challenges instead.” However some cabinet members maintain divergent views regarding whether UK’s strategy will ultimately succeed.Although unprecedented leaks emerged recently indicating national security council meeting findings showing Ed Miliband , Rachel Reeves & Yvette Cooper strongly favored obstructing U. S employing Britain’s military bases certain high-ranking ministers worry such long-term effects could jeopardize transatlantic ties undermining UK standing & security. Thornberry feels assured relations will mend saying ,”We will always stand close alongside America.”,”They’re absolutely our top ally ; Yet sometimes disagreements arise. We managed Vietnam so surely we’ll navigate through this too! Not like we’ve historically followed blindly leading us towards disastrous choices recently”. “Individuals become especially excited about wars – particularly men – initiating lots excitement initially yet once ramifications begin surfacing affecting daily life popularity declines dramatically. Having lived through numerous Middle East wars we’ve gained insights into how these patterns unfold”.
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“Instead it’s turned out to be weeks-long disturbance affecting global economies which voters genuinely care about – especially evident at petrol stations – leading them toward shifting positions.”“For Tories,”he said,”it appears derived from losing valuable foreign policy skills since transitioning into opposition while highlighting Farage having difficulties concerning America.”“Trump 2.0 isn’t operating similarly compared to how he campaigned,”Judah asserted.”His campaign revolved around isolationism aiming instead at world peace.”“We’ve witnessed Reform attempt professionalizing themselves becoming a legitimate conservative contender morphing from past Ukip isolationists toward adopting more neoconservatives along with American alignment.” “That neocon tradition remains functional when America behaves beneficially towards your politician by praising him or being perceived flourishing however it’s now presenting challenges instead.” However some cabinet members maintain divergent views regarding whether UK’s strategy will ultimately succeed.Although unprecedented leaks emerged recently indicating national security council meeting findings showing Ed Miliband , Rachel Reeves & Yvette Cooper strongly favored obstructing U. S employing Britain’s military bases certain high-ranking ministers worry such long-term effects could jeopardize transatlantic ties undermining UK standing & security. Thornberry feels assured relations will mend saying ,”We will always stand close alongside America.”,”They’re absolutely our top ally ; Yet sometimes disagreements arise. We managed Vietnam so surely we’ll navigate through this too! Not like we’ve historically followed blindly leading us towards disastrous choices recently”. “Individuals become especially excited about wars – particularly men – initiating lots excitement initially yet once ramifications begin surfacing affecting daily life popularity declines dramatically. Having lived through numerous Middle East wars we’ve gained insights into how these patterns unfold”.
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