CNN
—
Biden administration officers, watching the exceptional velocity of the Syrian insurgent advance, more and more see the potential of the regime of Bashar al-Assad falling inside days, 5 US officers instructed CNN.
If the American evaluation proves true, it might signify a spectacularly quick fall from energy for the Syrian dictator after a 14-year conflict, one which had been comparatively stagnant till simply final week.
Officers cautioned {that a} formal evaluation on Assad’s destiny hasn’t emerged and that views fluctuate, saying his demise isn’t a forgone conclusion.
“The emerging consensus is that is an increasingly plausible scenario,” one senior US official mentioned.
“Probably by next weekend the Assad regime will have lost any semblance of power,” one other official mentioned.
“Only thing that would delay a rebel conquest would be a well-organized coup and reorganization, but Assad’s folks have done a good job of stifling any potential competitors,” the official added.
Rebels are racing towards the Syrian capital after routing authorities forces in two of the nation’s largest cities in an advance that began simply over every week in the past. Homs, Syria’s third largest metropolis, lies subsequent of their path as they sweep south.
Past there, the capital Damascus.
The Biden administration appeared caught off guard by the velocity of the insurgent advance launched final week. Regime troops have collapsed and melted away, leaving a fragile shell of a military to defend the president and Damascus.
The US has misjudged the endurance of regimes earlier than, most just lately in Afghanistan — the place the US intelligence group judged that the Afghan authorities can be extra resilient than it finally was — and in Ukraine, which the US wrongly believed would fall to Russia inside days of Moscow’s invasion. In consequence, in 2022 the US intelligence launched a evaluation of the way it assesses the “will to fight” of overseas militaries, CNN beforehand reported.
Main the insurgent advance in Syria is a bunch designated by the US as terrorist group: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which was beforehand linked to al Qaeda.
“We have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization,” nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan instructed CNN final weekend. “At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure.”
There’s little signal that Iran and Russia — whose assist have saved Assad in energy — are going to swoop in to avoid wasting him, at the very least in a method that may make a distinction. Russia is slowed down with its conflict in Ukraine, and Iran has been considerably weakened after Israel’s current strikes on its air defenses and decimation of its regional proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. HTS seems to have taken benefit of the truth that Assad’s allies have been all distracted — and that the world was not paying a lot consideration to Syria — when it launched its operation, one of many US officers mentioned.
One of many US officers mentioned the Pentagon, which has round 900 troops in Syria, will not be planning to alter its pressure posture within the nation and is ready to see what occurs whereas taking extra pressure safety measures.
The US has lengthy partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces for anti-ISIS operations in Syria. The SDF has maintained contact with the insurgent group generally known as HTS, the US official mentioned, however the US doesn’t talk with HTS as a result of it’s thought of a terrorist group.
HTS doesn’t seem to have the overt assist of Assad adversary Turkey, however US officers imagine Turkey gave the group a inexperienced gentle to launch its operation.
One important concern the administration has is the security of Assad’s stockpile of chemical weapons, thought to incorporate each chlorine and sarin, which Assad has infamously utilized in insurgent areas to the horror of the worldwide group.
It’s unclear the place Assad would flee to, US officers mentioned. His patrons may supply refuge in Moscow or Tehran, and it stays to be seen whether or not the rebels will set their sights on Latakia, an enclave of the Alawite sect to which Assad belongs.
