In their statement, Cataraqui Conservation mentioned that the Surface Water Monitoring Centre (SWMC), which predicts storm surges on Lake Ontario, has shared this information as part of a Provincial Flood Watch for Lower Great Lakes issued at 2:16 p. m. on Wednesday, Jun. 17, 2026:
Expect sustained southwest winds of 40 to 60 km/h over Lake St. Clair, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Thursday and Friday as they shift from southwesterly to westerly. The strong winds will cause a small surge in the eastern part of Lake Ontario and Bay of Quinte, from 4 p. m. June 18 until the morning of June 20. Levels are expected to hit or exceed 1.5 m above chart datum in Kingston and at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River.
“The latest SWMC Lake Ontario storm surge modelling, which forecasts water levels as far east as about Gananoque, suggests that the highest water levels will be in the Howe Island and Gananoque area, reaching as high as 75.70 m the evening or night of June 18,” the local conservation authority stated.
“After the expected peak on June 18, the Gananoque area may continue to see water levels up to 75.60 m until night falls on June 19 before they start to drop back down when wind speeds decrease. SWMC does not forecast water levels for St. Lawrence River east (downstream) of the Gananoque area.”
According to their statement, during this short-term rise in water levels due to wind-driven storm surges and wave action, there’s an increased risk of localized flooding and erosion affecting some properties. Fixed docks could become submerged, Cataraqui Conservation warned, emphasizing that caution is needed near shorelines where wave action could cause damage.
The Conservation Authority made it clear that widespread flooding isn’t anticipated right now.
“However, if you notice flooding and/or need help, your first point of contact should be your local municipality,” said the organization.
“Staff will keep monitoring Surface Water Monitoring Centre (SWMC) Provincial Statements and update Cataraqui Conservation messages as required. This Shoreline Conditions Statement will remain effective until (or updated before) Saturday, June 20, 2026 at 10 a. m. A separate Shoreline Conditions Statement issued on June 12, 2026 also remains valid.”
See the full statement on the Cataraqui Conservation website where you can also find municipal contact details.
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