Three byelections. Three Liberal chances. No Liberal wins.
The Ontario Liberals entered Thursday’s three provincial byelections hoping to translate polling improvements-and the political buzz around Donald Trump-into actual seats.
Instead, voters left the results unchanged.
Progressive Conservatives kept York-Simcoe and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, while the NDP held onto Scarborough Southwest. No seats shifted hands.
This outcome is particularly awkward for the Liberals. Their polling had shown them ahead of the NDP, while Premier Doug Ford spent months clashing with U. S. President Donald Trump over tariffs and positioning his government as the party willing to “stand up to Trump.”
Federal Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney recently won three federal byelections with a similar anti-Trump, Canada-first message. The Ontario Liberals had good reason to believe some of that momentum might carry over.
It didn’t happen.
In York-Simcoe, Liberal Naomi Davison made a significant leap, rising to nearly 39 percent from 24 percent in 2025. But PC candidate Susan Lahey still captured almost 50 percent.
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek proved even tougher for the Liberals, with their candidate finishing third. In Scarborough Southwest, the NDP successfully fended off a Liberal challenge.
And there was another concerning sign: turnout was only between 21 and 29 percent.
For Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie, these results present a mixed picture. The party seems capable of making gains, but making gains isn’t the same as winning seats.
The Liberals are still looking for a permanent leader-their third leadership contest since 2018-while Ford’s majority remains solidly in place.
For residents in Peel watching Queen’s Park, Thursday’s message was clear: while the Trump factor may have influenced discussions, it didn’t change who runs the government.
The Liberals might be getting closer. But on Thursday night, closer still meant second-or third-place.
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