This weather system presents a complex forecast because even a small change in temperature could lead to very different types of precipitation for an area. A slight adjustment in the warm layer’s position could greatly change the overall impact.
As we’ve discussed throughout this forecast, there are still several uncertainties that we hope will be resolved by our final update. New model data will allow us to fine-tune the timing, types of precipitation, and expected amounts.
For now, since this is our initial forecast, we’ve opted for broader ranges on predicted precipitation totals to account for varying scenarios. This cautious approach is warranted when conditions are finely balanced between different outcomes.
We plan to narrow these ranges in our final update as we gain more confidence about what will happen. While major changes to the overall setup seem unlikely, some shifts might occur, with certain areas potentially moving one category up or down, especially if they lie close to the border of one of the forecast zones.
Current forecasts indicate that Hamilton, Brantford, Burlington, Oakville, Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener, Stratford, Woodstock, Mitchell, Listowel, Fergus, Arthur, Minto, Mildmay, Hanover, Chatsworth and Owen Sound are likely to experience the most significant impacts from this winter storm. This region currently faces the highest risk for severe icing.
The main type of precipitation expected in this area will be freezing rain which could become quite heavy at times during late morning and early afternoon hours. Lighter freezing drizzle may fill in gaps between heavier bursts.
This event has the potential to reach ice storm levels; widespread power outages could occur in heavily affected areas as steady icing combined with strong winds takes down tree branches and power lines. Travel may become hazardous or even impossible on some rural roads.
Ice accumulation of 8 to 16 mm is possible here; localized spots might see even higher amounts if heavier bands linger longer than anticipated. Such ice can easily cause damage to trees and infrastructure.
An additional concern is that many areas are not expected to warm up significantly after icing occurs. In fact, temperatures will likely stay below freezing through Thursday and into Friday.
This means impacts could last several days as ice remains stuck on surfaces making cleanup and recovery efforts tougher. Sidewalks and untreated roads may remain dangerous long after the storm has passed.
Slightly south and west of this zone should see lower ice accretion since a transition back to regular rain is expected for regions like Niagara through London and east of Lake Huron later in the morning. Here rising temperatures above freezing should help limit ice formation.
To the north and east of where most ice accumulation occurs-covering Dufferin County along with Brampton, Vaughan, Mississauga and Toronto-we’re expecting a mix of all three types of winter precipitation. This area is particularly tricky regarding forecasts.
This will begin with a few hours of freezing rain mid- to late-morning with possible ice accumulation up to 2 to 6 mm. Even at the lower end of that scale sidewalks and untreated surfaces can become slick quickly.
By late morning it’s anticipated that this zone will switch over from freezing rain to ice pellets before finally changing into heavy snow by early afternoon. How quickly this transition happens will heavily influence how much snow accumulates.
The snowfall range here varies widely from 5 cm at minimum up to 15 cm maximum due mostly to uncertainty around how long we’ll see those ice pellets before they turn into snow.
If snow arrives sooner than expected then totals could reach closer towards that upper end figure; conversely if there’s a delay then we might stay nearer that lower number due mainly because more precipitation would fall as denser but less accumulating ice pellets instead of fluffy snowflakes.
A similar uncertainty regarding ratios between ice pellets versus snow also applies from Bruce Peninsula through Lake Simcoe regions extending into Peterborough where communities can expect varied outcomes too.
Snowfall totals here may range anywhere from 10 cm all way up toward 25 cm depending largely upon when exactly heavy snows kick-in which many models suggest happening during late morning hours allowing several hours worth sustained heavier snowfall rates between 2-4 cm per hour thereafter afterward’s snowfall numbers trending higher ultimately hitting marks around fifteen twenty-five centimeters likely requiring plenty shoveling/plowing alongside challenging travel conditions throughout afternoon period ahead post-event completion itself!
(Meanwhile should it lean more towards mixing continued icy bits throughout duration bringing numbers dropping only ten centimeters possibly keeping frozen contents locked tightly together crunchy lumps rather than soft clouds falling gracefully!)
Conditions quickly diminish further northward reaching Central/Eastern Ontario where northern edges lose clarity leading Muskoka-Kingston corridor getting anywhere between two-cm-ten-centimeter flakes depending on specific locality nudging their way slightly upwards compared expectations otherwise maintaining subzero temps ongoing thereby reducing risks related largely given milder profiles present nearby surrounding locations southward potentially incurring fewer substantial incidents.nn
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