By David W. Brady, Michael Spence
STANFORD/MILAN – With political chaos swirling in the United States, discussions about this year’s midterm congressional elections in November are already gaining traction. In last year’s crucial elections, the Democrats achieved several wins, including gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, special elections for Virginia’s General Assembly, and mayoral contests in Miami and New York City. While this seems promising for the Democrats heading into the midterms, US politics is expected to remain troubled for quite a while.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump and his opponent, former Vice President Kamala Harris, each garnered over 90% of their party’s votes. However, a broad You Gov survey revealed that among those votes Harris lost to Trump were many from Democrats who pointed to inflation as their top concern (12%). Among Independents who considered inflation, the economy, and immigration as their three main issues (20%, 15%, and 12%, respectively), Trump outperformed Harris by more than 40 points.
The Democratic successes from last year reflect similar economic worries but yielded different outcomes. By the end of 2025, US voters prioritized inflation (24%) and jobs along with the economy (16%), alongside health care (11%), according to an Economist/You Gov poll. Unlike in 2024, however, voters viewed Democrats as better suited to tackle these issues. Even Republicans who ranked these topics as high-priority were 10-15% less inclined to support their party in the upcoming 2026 midterms compared to those who didn’t emphasize these concerns.
The larger issue for Republicans lies with Independents; over two-thirds now disapprove of Trump’s management of both the economy and inflation. When asked about voting preferences in the midterms, they gave Democrats a solid lead of 16%. Since Democrats only need to flip five seats to take control of the House of Representatives, their odds look favorable.
However, while a Democratic majority in the House could hinder some policies from Trump’s administration, it wouldn’t signal a significant change within US politics. Instead, both major parties will likely continue exchanging power as has been typical over recent decades.
It’s true that Democrats enjoyed a long stretch of dominance beginning in 1932 during the height of the Great Depression. But ever since Ronald Reagan claimed victory for Republicans in 1980’s presidential race, leadership has frequently shifted hands. Reagan won re-election in 1984 but saw Republicans lose control of the Senate just two years later. George H. W. Bush took presidency in 1988 yet was denied a second term by Democrat Bill Clinton four years after that.
During the midterms of 1994, Republicans captured control of the House for the first time after four decades. Clinton secured re-election in ’96 but was succeeded by Republican President George W. Bush who not only served two consecutive terms but also enjoyed six years under GOP-led Congress.
Democratic President Barack Obama entered office following his election in ’08; yet during midterms two years later Republicans gained an astonishing total of 64 House seats. Although Obama won again in ’12 he was followed by Trump; nonetheless Republicans lost control of Congress again during midterm elections held in ’18 before Trump was ultimately defeated by Joe Biden-Obama’s former vice president-in ’20.
No matter how much excitement Democrats felt post-election results started fading away during midterm races when they lost control over House seats-and further dimmed when Trump secured another presidency win back in ’24. The forthcoming midterms will probably shift things slightly-but not dramatically enough overall-meaning America’s political pendulum will keep swinging back and forth.
A big part behind this ongoing situation is that governments often lose favor once they’re actually running things-not just here but around other nations too! For example: France had its government rated at merely 16% approval per December 2025 You Gov polling data! Britain isn’t far off either with ratings hovering around 17%. Germany stands slightly higher at 25%, meanwhile Denmark plus Italy along with Spain all rank above 30%; however even there majorities are still displeased regarding their leaders’ performance levels!
Citizens express frustrations claiming leaders haven’t addressed pressing matters like sluggish growth rates along with rising costs concerning living expenses or housing access inequality-and climate change challenges persist too! Over half those surveyed across both Europe & U. S think public pensions aren’t sufficient enough & many young adults fear pension systems won’t be viable come retirement time!
Yet tackling such complex problems proves difficult especially leading up towards imminent electoral cycles since trust towards incumbent officials tends dwindling rapidly whenever results fall short-which then prompts voters towards giving opposition chances instead making it challenging keeping policies intact long-term needed effective solutions through time frames necessary resulting uncertainties discouraging investments down roads ahead. Moreover lack progress fuels distrust towards elected representatives leading people possibly turning against “establishments” altogether looking populist “disruptors” further compounding unpredictability within governance aspects appearing increasingly troublesome throughout regions globally!
Frustrations aimed at elite groups crosscutting political lines exist widely amongst diverse populations nationwide nowadays too! Lastest Economist/You Gov survey conducted earlier on indicated striking stats showing massive proportions reporting political institutions having been “captured by wealthy elites” standing tall amounts; specifically noted findings revealed percentages showing: an overwhelming 91% among Dems agreeing alongside upstanding figures reflected similarly reaching hefty level rates upwards hit approximately 75% found amongst Repubs coupled together close range nearing near same amount gauging Independents views tallying hitting high marks reaching notable heights around reaching impressive rate measures rounding up hitting nearly touching fifty percentage thresholds across board inclusive sentiments expressed representing overarching group consensus emphasizing fundamental issues surrounding accountability surrounding important decisions being made away amid public scrutiny conditions imposed affecting confidence levels moving forward.”
Voters may rally behind Democratic Party come this year’s impending elections forecasted looming possibilities arise driven basis reflecting prevailing currents faced. However neither upcoming polls nor anticipated national contest scheduled ahead slated targeting future slots such not likely set stage fostering meaningful transformations reshaping underlying structure dynamics shaping nation’s landscape moving forward expecting more gridlock than constructive advancements occurring occurring amidst current atmosphere permeating society !
Copyright: Project Syndicate ,2016.
www. project-syndicate. org
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