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From Windsor to Waterloo area, 4 space cities rank amongst these in Canada that will be hardest-hit by U.S. tariffs, a brand new report exhibits.
Revealed Feb 11, 2025 • 4 minute learn
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A automotive provider leaves the Stellantis Windsor Meeting Plant with new Pacifica fashions on Monday, February 26, 2024. (Dan Janisse/Postmedia Community)
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4 Southwestern Ontario cities led by Windsor – all, within the area’s auto and manufacturing belt – rank among the many most-exposed cities within the nation to the specter of U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, a brand new report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce exhibits.
Nationally, Saint John, N.B., and Calgary, each massively reliant on the oil trade, can be hit the toughest by U.S. tariffs, the brand new report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce says. However cities in Southwestern Ontario are additionally closely uncovered as a result of they’re dwelling to Canada’s automotive and elements manufacturing sector, the group stories.
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After Windsor at No. 3, each a border metropolis and main auto producer, the most-exposed metro areas within the nation are Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Brantford and Guelph, in that order, in keeping with the enterprise group, which zeroed in on the area’s auto and auto elements sector, different manufacturing and agricultural exports.
“Our modelling estimates that automotive and parts manufacturing would be the second-most negatively impacted sector by U.S. tariffs. Therefore, it’s no surprise to see several cities in Southwestern Ontario occupying the 3rd to 6th spots on the list,” the chamber reported.
At 31, London ranks within the backside quarter of the 41 metro areas surveyed for his or her vulnerability to threatened U.S. tariffs, simply behind Moncton, N.B., and simply forward of Vancouver.
In response to the nationwide chamber, London – a significant manufacturing metropolis, together with of auto elements, however with a extra various financial system than many cities – exports greater than $5.4 billion value of products to the U.S. annually, accounting for simply shy of 70 per cent of all its exports.
Utilizing Statistics Canada commerce information, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce got here up with a “U.S. Tariff Exposure Index” to take a look at the potential affect of threatened American tariffs on the 41 cities. The analysis checked out Statistics Canada export information in mild of U.S. President Donald Trump’s preliminary risk to impose 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs on all items coming into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico. Trump delayed these levies till at the very least March 4 in response to frame safety commitments from each nations.
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On Monday Trump signed government orders to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all metal and aluminum imports to the U.S., together with from Canada. Cities akin to Hamilton, Ont., and Sault Ste. Marie, Ont., could also be hit hardest by these particular tariffs, with their massive metal industries.
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However the chamber appeared on the potential affect of the across-the-board, concluding cities that export probably the most items to the U.S. as a share of their economies will really feel probably the most ache.
The researchers mentioned Saint John is probably the most weak. It’s dwelling to the most important crude oil refinery in Canada – it may possibly course of greater than 320,000 barrels every day and greater than 80 per cent of that oil is exported south of the border. Seafood and forestry merchandise are New Brunswick’s different high exports to the U.S.
Calgary is the second-most weak metropolis as a result of it additionally exports crude oil and pure fuel to the U.S., the researchers say. Beef is one other certainly one of its main exports that will be uncovered in a commerce battle, the report mentioned.
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The researchers concluded that Hamilton – dwelling to Canada’s metal trade – would take an financial hit, as would Saguenay and Trois-Rivieres, dwelling to Quebec’s high aluminum and forestry producers.
The report says the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean area is accountable for a couple of third of Canada’s aluminum manufacturing, and round 85 per cent of it’s exported to the U.S.
“President Trump’s proposed tariffs will have significant consequences for the global economy – but for some of Canada’s cities, the threat is far more local and personal,” mentioned Stephen Tapp, chief economist on the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
“With this analysis, Canadians, businesses and policy makers have more evidence to inform ongoing discussions about how Canada can best respond to the monumental challenge brought by unnecessary and unjustified U.S. tariffs.”
Some Canadian cities have much less to worry from tariffs, the report mentioned. They embrace cities on Canada’s coasts, like Victoria and Halifax, that export extra to Asia or Europe.
The researchers say Sudbury, Ont., can be much less weak as a result of its exports of nickel and copper are “reaching other international markets beyond the United States.”
“The looming tariff threat is still very real: we have to remain vigilant and brace for impact,” mentioned Candace Laing, president and CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
“Already, we’ve heard from members across Canada how the threat of tariffs is disrupting local businesses and economies. This new data further emphasizes that this is not a game we want to play when so many livelihoods depend on a stable relationship with the U.S.”
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