In an end-of-year interview, Immigration Minister Marc Miller acknowledged that he and the federal government may have acted sooner to reverse its unsustainable immigration coverage. His admission was notable however nonetheless too late.
The newest inhabitants information launched by Statistics Canada appears to bear him out on this concern. In 2024, the info at the moment out there suggests that we are going to once more lead the G7 by way of our charge of inhabitants development, by a distance, and be among the many fastest-growing populations within the OECD.
This shouldn’t have been a shock. When Miller assumed the position in mid-2023, probably the most up-to-date demographic information confirmed that Canada’s inhabitants was rising at a charge that was greater than two-and-a-half occasions the historic norm. In 2022, as an illustration, Canada’s inhabitants grew for the primary time by over 1 million individuals in a single 12-month interval, with a charge of inhabitants development (+2.7 p.c) that was dramatically increased than the historic common of about 1 p.c.
Additionally out there to his workplace would have been up-to-date info from Statistics Canada indicating that this tempo of development was accelerating into the primary quarter of 2023. Canada’s inhabitants ultimately grew by over 3.2 p.c in 2023.
Two main components had been largely accountable for this development: Canada was setting information with regard to each its everlasting immigrant targets in addition to a dramatic development within the variety of non-permanent residents (akin to pupil visas, short-term overseas employees, or asylum seekers).
Paperwork obtained by means of an access-to-information request by the Canadian Press demonstrated that way back to 2022, senior Immigration officers had been warning decision-makers that speedy inhabitants development was outstripping the out there provide of housing and placing unreasonable stress on well being care and settlement service suppliers.
But the federal authorities waited till January 2024 to enact modifications to its immigration coverage. The primary was to regulate the variety of research permits issued to worldwide college students. The most important a part of this reform was to be felt within the third quarter of 2024 with fewer college students getting into Canada. As well as, a sequence of modifications had been regularly launched all through 2024 to make work permits extra restrictive.
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Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Marc Miller speaks throughout a information convention, Wednesday, September 18, 2024 in Ottawa. Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press.
However these coverage modifications, the variety of non-permanent residents in Canada has continued to climb by means of to the third quarter of 2024. Whereas the variety of worldwide college students was down barely (-4.5 p.c) over the July 1st to Oct. 1st interval, this was greater than offset by a development within the variety of work permits issued (+4.4 p.c) and asylum seekers (+8.1 p.c). Many college students after finishing their schooling should not leaving the nation, however shifting to work permits underneath the post-graduation work allow program.
All informed, earlier than Miller turned Immigration minister in mid-2023, the share of Canada’s inhabitants that had been non-permanent residents was 5.5 p.c, whereas by Oct. 2024 it was 7.3 p.c—up by over 850,000 in roughly a yr and a half.
The present federal goal of 5 p.c that the minister set again in Mar. 2024 would merely deliver this stage again down near the place it was when he first took over this file. Traditionally, the share of non-permanent residents in Canada had hovered within the 1-2 p.c of inhabitants vary.
As for everlasting residents, regardless of the mounting proof, the federal government didn’t revise its 2024 immigration goal, with an anticipated 485,000 immigrants. Because of this the nation is about to hit one other file by way of the entire variety of everlasting immigrants to be settled in a single calendar yr.
One would assume that again in early 2023, the federal government would have not less than briefly lowered this goal till it managed to get the variety of non-permanent residents and inhabitants development underneath management. As of Oct. 2024, Canada seems to be nicely on the street to breaking its previous file on immigration having already obtained extra immigrants over the primary three quarters of 2024 than it did over the primary three quarters of 2023.1Having mentioned this, it’s all the time attainable that the federal government is not going to meet this goal, or for that matter, it may presumably surpass it. Statistics Canada will likely be releasing its closing numbers on immigration for the total calendar yr 2024 throughout the subsequent couple of months.
Statistics Canada at the moment has a real-time inhabitants clock that estimates Canada’s inhabitants by means of to the current. Whereas these estimates should not actual, involving some extrapolation of incomplete information, this does present the most effective estimate as to the place our inhabitants at the moment stands. As of New Yr’s Day 2025, Canada’s inhabitants reached 41,564,000.
Determine 1. Graphic credit score: Janice Nelson.
Though this estimate is preliminary and has but to be finalized by Statistics Canada, that is seemingly near what our inhabitants measurement can be if the truth is the federal authorities meets its 2024 targets on each immigration and NPRs. In working with this estimate for Jan. 1st, 2025, this means an annual inhabitants development of about 780,000 individuals in 2024, or a development charge of 1.9 p.c (see Determine 1). Whereas down from the astronomical heights of 2023 (3.2 p.c), that is nonetheless near twice the historic norm for Canada.
For my part, it’s virtually an understatement to recommend that the federal authorities “opened the taps,” however then failed to shut them rapidly sufficient. As I’ve argued elsewhere, in coverage phrases, a gradual, gradual upturn in inhabitants development is much better for planning future labour drive, housing, and infrastructure wants.
With this in thoughts, the federal government shifting ahead could be nicely suggested to develop a inhabitants coverage, with the intention to keep away from this kind of state of affairs sooner or later. The Canadian inhabitants can be nicely served by a authorities that would rapidly accommodate sudden challenges whereas sustaining a predictable and comparatively secure charge of inhabitants development.
Don Kerr
Don Kerr is a demographer who teaches at Kings College Faculty at Western College. From 1992-2000 he labored within the demography division at Statistics Canada. His previous analysis has centered on social demography, inhabitants estimates and projections, environmental demography, and the socioeconomic and political penalties of demographic change in Canada.
