The Trump issue, the problems, the horse race – and extra
Printed Jan 27, 2025 • Final up to date 2 minutes in the past • 7 minute learn
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Ontario Premier Doug Ford (File)
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By: Jennifer Bieman
Ontario Premier Doug Ford is sending voters to the polls 15 months early, with a snap election he says is required to take care of the risk posed to Ontario’s financial system by U.S. President Donald Trump and his avowed tariffs on Canadian exports. Key issues to know forward of Wednesday’s anticipated election name:
BLAMING TRUMP
Even earlier than Trump took workplace this month, Ford — with two majority Progressive Conservative governments underneath his belt — gave the impression to be itching for an early election. Hypothesis about an election earlier than the following scheduled one, in June 2026, ran rampant final fall as Ford dominated out a late 2024 vote however refused to take 2025 off the desk. Then got here Trump’s election in November and his inauguration in January, together with his risk to slap 25-per-cent tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. Such a transfer may menace as much as 500,000 jobs in Ontario’s export-driven financial system, officers estimate. “Make no mistake about it, he’s coming for us,” the premier has warned. Ford, who has turn into one thing of a Captain Canada in current weeks, showing broadly in American media to defend Canadian pursuits amid the Trump risk, now insists he wants a “clear mandate” to take care of 4 years of Trump’s second presidency and the damaging fallout it may have on Ontario.
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CRITICS SEE CYNICISM
Critics contend Ford doesn’t have to name an early election, since he has a majority authorities and as premier already has the job of defending Ontario’s pursuits.
“While our province faces a grave threat with half a million jobs at risk, Doug Ford sees an opportunity to fight for one job — his own,” New Democrat chief Marit Stiles, the opposition chief at Queen’s Park, mentioned Friday.
“He thinks he can con Ontarians with an early election to escape his record — but we won’t let him.”
Wednesday’s election-call will come practically two weeks after Ontario beginning mailing out $200 cheques to nearly each man, woman and youngster within the province, a roughly $3-billion mass mail-out of cash that Ford promised final fall to assist Ontarians address larger prices together with from the federal Liberal carbon tax. Opponents have categorized the transfer as an try to purchase voters with their very own cash.
Ford’s PCs have a commanding majority within the Ontario legislature, holding about two-thirds of its seats.
“It does seem opportunistic. Like many people, I suspect, I’m skeptical of the rationale of needing a new mandate,” mentioned Matt Farrell, a political science teacher at Fanshawe School in London.
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“What more of a mandate does he need? He has a 50-seat lead in the legislature now.”
WHAT’S NEXT?
Coming off a “super-caucus” technique assembly with PC candidates Saturday, Ford will go to Ontario’s lieutenant governor on Wednesday to ask that the legislature be dissolved and the election writs issued, one for every driving within the province. That may set off a 29-day marketing campaign, with the election held Feb. 27 — one month after Trump has hinted his avowed tariffs may take impact, and 10 days earlier than the federal Liberals select a brand new chief for his or her fragile minority authorities to interchange the departing Justin Trudeau as prime minister.
A federal election is broadly anticipated to observe quickly after, with both the Liberal authorities falling someday after the prorogued Parliament resumes March 24 or the brand new prime minister pulling the plug and sending voters to the polls.
HISTORY ON THE LINE
Ford is gunning for a 3rd straight majority underneath his watch, one thing no Ontario premier has pulled off since 1959. Liberal premier Dalton McGuinty got here oh-so shut in 2011, ending the election that 12 months one seat shy of three straight majorities. Between them, John Robarts and Invoice Davis managed three consecutive PC majorities ending in 1971. However for the final majority hat trick underneath one premier, you need to return to Leslie Frost who led his PCs to victory in 1951, ’55 and ’59.
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THE MAGIC NUMBERS
Ford’s PCs maintain 79 seats within the 124-seat legislature, the opposition NDP 28 and the Liberals 9. The Inexperienced Occasion has two seats and 6 members sit as independents.
A celebration must win 63 seats for a easy majority, however extra is healthier for the reason that speaker of the legislature normally comes from the ruling occasion, lowering its voting power by one.
THE COST
One other necessary quantity to think about? The precise value of sending Ontarians to the polls. The province’s final normal election in 2022 value taxpayers $145.3 million, however the tab is predicted to be larger this time factoring in elevated prices and the run-up in inflation since then.
THE ISSUES
Ford is attempting to border the election as a referendum on which chief and occasion is finest suited to take care of Trump and the billions of {dollars} the U.S. president’s avowed tariffs may value Ontario.
However with two phrases in authorities underneath Ford’s belt, look ahead to the opposite events to zero in on authorities baggage starting from homelessness and the affordability disaster many Ontarians are feeling, to the two.5 million residents of the province with no household physician. One other problem that would hang-out the federal government is a felony investigation by the RCMP right into a controversial plan to take away land for brand spanking new housing from the protected Greenbelt close to Toronto, a land swap the Tories moved to reverse following a public and political uproar.
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Heading into the election, a Leger ballot performed for Postmedia and revealed final week recommended affordability considerations are the highest problem, with 28 per cent of respondents rating the price of dwelling as an important problem of their group. That was far forward of the No. 2 problem, well being care, at 12 per cent, and the financial system, which was a prime precedence for 11 per cent.
5 per cent of survey respondents ranked U.S. relations, together with Trump tariffs, as an important problem.
AREN’T ELECTION DATES FIXED?
Sure and no. Ontario has a fixed-date election regulation, requiring one to be held each 4 years, however that doesn’t cease the lieutenant governor from dissolving the legislature on the request of the premier.
Below the regulation, Ontario’s subsequent election date would have been June 4, 2026.
THE RISK
The final time an Ontario premier with a majority referred to as an early election, it backfired badly. Liberal premier David Peterson, excessive within the polls three years right into a majority, referred to as an election in 1990 with financial storm clouds on the horizon. What a summer time sleeper for the Liberals shortly become a nightmare. Beset by single-issue protest teams and suspicion the Liberals have been attempting to bag one other victory earlier than powerful occasions hit, the occasion misplaced the election — and Peterson his London seat — to Bob Rae’s New Democrats, who battled a brutal recession that adopted.
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There’s at all times a threat voters may punish Ford for the early election, returning his authorities in a weakened place, mentioned Laura Stephenson, chair of the political science division at Western College.
“A recent example is the redo federal election of 2021, where Trudeau sent Canadians to the polls and the outcome was almost identical. I don’t think that is what he was expecting,” she mentioned.
“There’s a possibility that Ford ends up with less support than what the polls are currently saying, but even that is still going to be pretty strong.”
THE REWARD
Whereas there’s at all times a threat in ending an in any other case secure majority, Farrell mentioned the potential payoff for Ford outweighs the risks.
Calling an election now means Ford can catch the Liberals, underneath chief Bonnie Crombie, at a time once they’re nonetheless rebuilding from extreme election defeats in 2018 and 2022, Farrell mentioned.
“The new Liberal leader has not really been defined yet for voters,” he mentioned. “It gives the PCs a chance to define the Liberal leader while being in a position of strength as an incumbent government.”
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This election would be the first as occasion chief for each Crombie, who took the Liberal helm in December 2023, and for the NDP’s Stiles, who took over from Andrea Horwath in February 2023.
Although federal and provincial politics are separate, the current turmoil for Trudeau’s Liberals may additionally have an effect on how some voters see the Ontario Liberals, Farrell mentioned.
“The federal Liberal brand has taken a beating. Negative messages stick. When you hear negative stories federally, then you see Doug Ford’s negative ads about Bonnie Crombie, it just all registers as another negative Liberal story,” he mentioned.
An early election additionally helps Ford skirt some looming controversies and potential crises with potential to mire a 2026 election, Stephenson mentioned.
A Feb. 27 election sends voters to the polls earlier than the RCMP’s investigation into the Greenbelt scandal has concluded and earlier than the total impression of Trump on Ontario’s financial system turns into clear.
“He’s trying to get himself another term in office before things get to a point where people want something different,” she mentioned.
THE HORSE RACE
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Current polling suggests Ford’s PCs enter the beginning gate with the election theirs to lose.
The newest Leger survey of voter intentions, performed Jan. 17 to 19, discovered Ford’s PCs with the assist of 46 per cent of respondents, to 22 per cent for Crombie’s Liberals.
When requested who they’d vote for if an election was held immediately, 19 per cent of respondents mentioned they’d vote for the NDP. The survey outcomes are thought of correct to inside 3.08 per cent, plus or minus, 19 occasions out of 20.
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