Groundhogs Have Their Say: Willie vs. Phil

Wiarton Willie, along with many other Canadian groundhogs, has predicted an early spring after he didn’t see his shadow on Monday morning during Groundhog Day.

Groundhog Day is a well-loved tradition where we watch animals come out of hibernation to predict if spring will arrive early or if winter will stick around for another six weeks.

Every February 2nd, groundhogs and even a lobster make their appearances to check for shadows.

Here are some other Canadian animals who made predictions bright and early:

Shubenacadie Sam from the Shubenacadie Wildlife Park in Nova Scotia did not see her shadow, forecasting an early spring. Lucy the Lobster in Barrington, N. S., is also predicting an early spring. Fred la marmotte from Quebec predicts an early spring. Van Isle Violet in Nanaimo, B. C., forecasts six more weeks of winter. Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania predicts six more weeks of winter.

According to legend, if a groundhog (or lobster like Lucy) comes out on a sunny day and sees its shadow, it goes back into hibernation for another six weeks of winter. But if it’s cloudy and there’s no shadow, that means spring is on its way.

WATCH | Wiarton Willie makes his 2026 prediction:

Wiarton Willie makes his 2026 prediction

It’s Groundhog Day again, and Wiarton Willie has made his call about whether we’ll have an early spring or not. Check out what he decides at a ceremony in Wiarton, Ont., on February 2nd, 2026.

70 years of predictions in Wiarton

In Wiarton, which has about 1,900 residents, the Groundhog Day festivities take place at Bluewater Park. The beloved woodchuck makes his prediction at 8:07 a. m. ET. Over the past 70 years, there have been several Wiarton Willies that have helped turn this town on the Bruce Peninsula into a popular tourist spot.

The annual festival kicks off with breakfast and fireworks at 7 a. m. This past weekend featured a curling event, chili cook-off, skating activities, dancing, and fun for families in Bluewater Park where one of Willie’s homes is located.

Wiarton Willie enjoys a bite to eat in his cage in Wiarton, Ont. (Submitted by South Bruce Peninsula)

Danielle Edwards, manager of economic development and corporate communications for South Bruce Peninsula Town said that Groundhog Day events feel like a homecoming.

“People kind of have taken off and spread their wings throughout Ontario or beyond. And then family and friends come back for our Willie weekend to celebrate this annual tradition together.”

If you’re wondering what people want Willie’s prediction to be; she noted it’s pretty much split down the middle between hoping for an early spring or more winter.

“We have people that love to see six more weeks of winter for all of the outdoor recreational activities. And then you have the other people who would prefer sun and sand,” she said.

WATCH | After this storm, people may be ready for an early spring:

This storm just froze half of North America

A massive winter storm has buried millions under historic snowfall and ice while trapping much of North America within a dangerous Arctic air mass. CBC’s Johanna Wagstaffe explains how two extreme weather phenomena-a polar vortex meeting an atmospheric river-combined to create this record-breaking event.

The History Behind Groundhog Day

The first official observation of Groundhog Day happened in the U. S. when Punxsutawney Phil made his prediction back in 1886 according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s website.

The first official trip up Gobbler’s Knob took place on February 2nd in 1887.

No doubt Phil is probably the most famous groundhog given how long he’s been predicting weather conditions; he’s even appeared in the movie Groundhog Day featuring Bill Murray.

Groundhog Club co-handler John Griffiths co-handler Al Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil during the celebration marking Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney Pa., Saturday Febuary 2nd ,2019. Phil’s handlers announced that he had forecasted an early Spring.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar) (Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press)

The tradition started back in Wiarton began as something lighthearted back in1956. The Town Of South Bruce Peninsula notes it was begun by someone named Mac Mc Kenzie who wanted “to shake off those winter blues” while bringing warmth into their community.”

This sparked interest among friends leading him to put out fake news saying they were marking ground hog day. Eventually this joke ended up reaching reporter from who came around town looking into covering what was happening here.”

“In a moment of whimsy & spontaneity when asked where’s our furry friend? Mac playfully tossed fur hat onto snow,” reads description from town website..

“Seizing opportunity photographer immortalized hat as stand-in representing elusive critter!”

The accuracy rate associated these animal weather forecasters varies greatly over time.

The Mixed Results from Predictions

The Weather Network states that since2000 , Wiarton Willie has only managed29% success rate making him least accurate amongst five “marmot meteorologists”.

Nobody can deny last year NOAA graded17 U. S. Ground Hogs including both live ones plus taxidermied versions alongside prairie dog statue & tortoise. It showed their accuracy ranged anywhere between25%Mohave Max tortoise )85%(New York Staten Island Chuck ).Okanagan Okie standing atop “Marmot City,” rocky knoll overlooking North Okanagan Valley near Vernon, B. C. at Allan Brooks Nature Centre. Dozen real marmots below sleeping tight.(Cheryl Hood)

A lot folks found unique ways make own shadow-driven forecasts via creativity such as:

Bonhomme Couèche: individual dressed costume participating Winter Carnival Shediac, N. B. Manitoba Merv: a puppet/golf club cover. Alberta Balzac Billy : Person donning ground hog mascot outfit. B. C.’s Okanagan Okie : A stuffed toy animal.

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