CNN
By Lauren Fox, Clare Foran, Sarah Ferris and Haley Talbot, CNN
Washington (CNN) — Home Speaker Mike Johnson faces a troublesome battle to retain the gavel even after an endorsement from Donald Trump, a check of the president-elect’s affect over his occasion amid the boundaries of an awfully slim majority.
Trump’s endorsement might assist Johnson shore up help, particularly after the speaker navigated a chaotic authorities funding battle earlier this month that drew the ire of his proper flank. However with a traditionally small majority within the new Congress, Johnson can afford solely a single Republican defection when the Home picks a brand new speaker on Friday if each member votes.
And one Home Republican – Rep. Thomas Massie – has already mentioned he doesn’t plan to vote for Johnson. The Kentucky Republican instructed CNN on Monday that Trump’s endorsement doesn’t change his place.
Members had been getting ready for a Trump endorsement, one supply instructed CNN. However the identical supply warned that it will not be sufficient. For now, Johnson allies are retaining shut tabs on members who haven’t but dedicated to backing him.
Along with Trump’s endorsement, any GOP holdouts might additionally face stress from Johnson allies over the potential penalties for the incoming president if the Home doesn’t rapidly elect a speaker.
Congress has by no means earlier than tried to certify a presidential election and not using a Home speaker in place, and Republicans throughout Washington are privately attempting to recreation out what may occur if that state of affairs have been to come up.
Up to now, GOP lawmakers and senior advisers say they’ve discovered no clear choices to certify Trump’s win and not using a speaker, in line with a number of sources. Some Johnson supporters are pointing to that as a part of their argument for why on-the-fence GOP lawmakers ought to help the present speaker.
“To oppose Johnson now weakens the GOP and strengthens Hakeem Jeffries. It also puts at risk the Electoral College Certification scheduled for 6 Jan. These guys serve as a ‘fifth column’ for the Dems,” Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon instructed CNN.
Johnson allies undertake in depth whip operation
During the last a number of weeks, Johnson’s deputies have launched an expansive whip operation, however there are nonetheless intense challenges to getting the Louisiana Republican to 218 votes – the magic quantity wanted to win the gavel.
One Republican lawmaker conversant in the outreach instructed CNN that whereas the overwhelming majority of GOP members perceive how “monumentally stupid” it could possibly be to have an in depth speaker’s battle, not each member is swayed by an argument that the occasion must be united going into the inauguration.
“A vast majority of Republicans are rational, but not every member of the Republican conference is rational,” the member lamented.
A CNN tally of members previous to Trump’s endorsement discovered that just about a dozen others had not but dedicated to Johnson.
Trump mentioned on Monday that Johnson has his “complete” and “total” endorsement.
“The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last Administration. Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement. MAGA!!!” Trump mentioned in a put up on Reality Social.
The massive shadow over Johnson’s speaker race: Trump certification
Even former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz — who has beforehand clashed with Johnson and his management crew — recommended his onetime colleagues ought to again the present speaker moderately than risking Trump’s certification as president.
“We could never have held up McCarthy two years ago for concessions if a Trump certification hung in the balance. Now, it does,” Gaetz mentioned on X, calling resistance to Johnson “futile.”
Whereas the speaker has no formal function in certifying the outcomes, the Home must be known as into session. And and not using a speaker, the Home can do nothing apart from vote to elect a speaker, vote to recess and vote to adjourn. Lawmakers can’t even be sworn in or set the foundations of the Home.
“You’re literally just stuck in a cyclical pattern of speaker votes with the clerk overseeing,” one GOP supply mentioned, describing what would occur and not using a speaker at the beginning of a brand new Congress.
And in contrast to throughout the Home’s final speaker-less debacle in 2023, there can be no non permanent chief poised to take over. When former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted, Rep. Patrick McHenry took over as speaker professional tempore as a result of he was McCarthy’s choose when he first took the gavel. However within the 119th Congress, a speaker should first be elected earlier than she or he can appoint a professional tempore.
Some Republicans are privately discussing methods to push the procedural limits in order that Congress can certify Trump’s win and not using a chief. One individual described an “emergency break glass option” that may contain permitting the Home to vote to enter a particular session. However that may be a troublesome promote for a lot of institutionalist Republicans.
Another choice that’s being privately floated round Washington: Pushing the date of Trump’s certification.
“There is no constitutional mandate that it’s got to be on January 6,” one other GOP supply mentioned, so long as it occurs earlier than January 20, the day of inauguration.
Johnson’s allies insist he’ll preserve his gavel on Friday and is working exhausting to lock down the votes. However Republicans and Democrats alike are trying to find solutions about what would occur to certification if the Home stays speaker-less three days later.
“When you don’t have a speaker, that impacts thousands of the important tasks of governing,” mentioned one GOP lawmaker who helps Johnson whip votes. “Clearly the whip team is aware that not having a speaker is a problem for lots of reasons.”
Johnson faces conservative ire after spending battle
After Johnson reduce a take care of Democrats over spending in mid-December, Trump injected a last-minute demand to boost the debt ceiling that left Johnson greedy for a Plan B. A revised GOP plan in the end did not get sufficient Republican votes to go and triggered grumbling amongst Johnson’s proper flank that the speaker wasn’t as much as the job. It additionally triggered some to wonder if Trump would keep on with Johnson forward of the speaker battle.
Massie mentioned earlier this month that he didn’t plan to again Johnson within the speaker’s race. In response to Trump’s endorsement, Massie wrote on X, “I respect and support President Trump, but his endorsement of Mike Johnson is going to work out about as well as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan. We’ve seen Johnson partner with the democrats to send money to Ukraine, authorize spying on Americans, and blow the budget.”
One other problem: The Home Freedom Caucus, which incorporates a few of the members most cautious of reelecting Johnson, has not come out with a unified checklist of calls for, making a scenario through which each member is appearing a bit as a free agent.
For some members, there are considerations about how the occasion will start to go particular person spending bills once more that handle decreasing the nation’s debt and deficit. That could possibly be tough provided that Home Republicans have proven repeatedly they don’t have the votes to go all 12 spending bills with simply GOP votes. To not point out the truth that Republicans will proceed to wish Democratic votes even in a Trump administration to maintain the federal government funded provided that Republicans don’t have the 60 votes wanted within the Senate to go bills on their very own.
Johnson can also be telling individuals that he’s not open to decreasing the variety of members it will take to drive a vote to oust a speaker after the GOP convention agreed to boost the edge. As a part of a conference-wide negotiation in November, Republicans determined to extend the variety of members it will take to drive a vote on what is named the movement to vacate from one member to 9. A supply conversant in Johnson’s considering mentioned the speaker doesn’t consider he can reverse course on what he sees as a conference-negotiated place.
When McCarthy went 15 rounds to get the speaker’s gavel in 2023, he finally acquiesced to conservative calls for to decrease the edge for the movement to vacate to a single member, a transfer that in the end led to his ouster.
This story has been up to date with extra data.
CNN’s Manu Raju and Alayna Treene contributed to this report.
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