Counting continues within the 2024 native elections, with a string of robust Labour council and regional mayoral leads to key basic election targets areas on Friday, even because the celebration misplaced the Tees mayor race and each Oldham and Kirklees amid rows over Gaza.
Labour sources stated on Friday night the celebration was persevering with its successful streak in key battlegrounds wanted to win the final election, performing nicely past what is required in key marginals to achieve a majority. It has a nine-point lead over the Tories within the BBC’s present projected nationwide vote share, the identical as in 2023, although this might change with additional outcomes on Friday.
The celebration chalked up vital wins together with the third greatest postwar Tory-Labour swing within the Blackpool South by-election. Labour expects to achieve the brand new East Midlands mayoralty and has gained the brand new York and North Yorkshire mayoralty in Rishi Sunak’s “yard”, and noticed off a left problem for the North East mayoralty.
Learn our rolling tally of Labour’s council management features and losses to this point right here. Keir Starmer’s celebration not solely reversed previous troubles in Hartlepool but additionally gained management in carefully watched battlegrounds similar to Hyndburn, Thurrock, Nuneaton and Bedworth, Redditch, Milton Keynes, Cannock Chase, Adur, Tamworth and Rushmoor – the place it has by no means gained a majority earlier than.
Labour expects to lose within the West Midlands tomorrow and misplaced the Tees Valley mayoral race, nevertheless, although made sizeable vote features within the latter. The celebration narrowly missed out on taking goal Harlow, misplaced management of Oldham and Kirklees, and misplaced 4 seats in Newcastle, with issues concerning the celebration’s Gaza stance costing votes.
Maintain refreshing this web page for updates, and ship us something we needs to be together with right here, huge or small, critical or foolish, on file or not: e-mail [email protected] or DM us on X.
Abstract of key developments to this point:
8.25pm: Liveblog closed
That’s it from the LabourList group as we speak, however we’ll be again with extra updates tomorrow on the location. Because of everybody who adopted alongside as we speak!
8.15pm: Labour features 9 PCC positions to this point
Labour has to this point gained 9 of the police and crime commissioner roles up for election – and retained the entire positions it already held. Our full story, detailing every of the outcomes, is right here.
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Labour GAIN Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner from the Conservatives – congratulations to @gary_godden 🌹 pic.twitter.com/Dgvr1eWI36
— The Labour Get together (@UKLabour) Might 3, 2024
7.40pm: Labour ‘should regain Muslims’ belief’ as Gaza hits votes and ‘bigotry’ row erupts
The chair of the Labour Muslim Community has warned Labour has “a lot work to do with regaining the belief of Muslim voters”, because the celebration’s Gaza stance appeared to dent native election help in some areas and a row erupted over “Islamophobia” claims. Full story right here.
7.25pm: Last outcomes for Tamworth
The ultimate leads to Tamworth have been confirmed, with the BBC reporting that Labour gained 9 seats to take its complete on the council to 18, whereas the Tories misplaced 9, falling to eight councillors. Labour claimed victory within the contest simply over an hour in the past, earlier than all of the consequence have been but to be introduced.
7.20pm: Labour holds councils up and down the nation
Extra Labour holds have been introduced in councils up and down the nation – with the celebration seeing notable features in councils already below its management together with Stevenage, Sandwell and Crawley, the BBC studies.
The celebration has additionally retained management in councils together with Rotherham, Wolverhampton, Trafford, Coventry, Bury and Calderdale.
7.10pm: Hastings and Pendle stay in no general management
Hastings council has remained in no general management, with the Greens gaining eight councillors to take their complete to 12, in response to the BBC. The Labour group has confronted a sequence of councillor resignations in latest months, together with the council’s former chief.
In keeping with the BBC, Labour misplaced two seats in contrast with its lead to 2021, taking its complete to eight, whereas the variety of Independents on the council noticed no change on seven. The Tories misplaced six councillors.
Elsewhere, Pendle council additionally remained in no general management – and with none Labour councillors. The entire celebration’s borough councillors resigned from the celebration final month after accusing Labour of “bullying ways” to “suppress” free speech.
The brand new make-up of the council following these elections is 13 Tories, 12 Independents and eight Liberal Democrats, in response to the BBC.
6.20pm: Lowdown on the state of play as of Friday early night
Labour sources stated on Friday night the celebration was persevering with its successful streak in key battlegrounds wanted to win the final election, performing nicely past what is required in key marginals to achieve a majority.
With 87 of 107 councils declared, Labour had returned 923 councillors as of early Friday night, up 144. It had gained a internet seven councils. The Tories had misplaced 354 seats and 6 councils. The Lib Dems gained 66 councillors, the Greens 44, independents 83 and the Employees’ Get together 4.
Labour additionally had a nine-point lead over the Tories within the BBC’s projected nationwide vote share late afternoon, the identical as in 2023, although this might change with additional outcomes and each Labour and Tories have been one level down every on final 12 months.
6.10pm: Labour ‘features Tamworth’ from no general management
Labour says it has gained key goal Tamworth from no general management, having gained an historic (second greatest ever Tory-Labour swing) latest by-election there. A Tory supply additionally advised the BBC they anticipated all 10 seats being contested to go Labour’s method, seven from the Tories. Outcomes will not be all declared but.
5.50pm: No change in Oxford however Labour loses seats amid Gaza row
Oxford council stays in no general management, however Labour misplaced 5 seats as independents and the Greens gained floor.
Labour had seen a string of councillors stop over its stance on the Israel-Hamas battle, with anger over the celebration not backing an instantaneous ceasefire.
5.40pm: ‘Individuals voting Labour for first time of their lives’ on south coast
Labour parliamentary candidate Tom Rutland advised us the win earlier in Adur, which Labour now controls for the primary time ever, is “phenomenal”.
The candidate in East Worthing and Shoreham, which maps onto Adur on the south coast, stated: “Keir Starmer has modified the Labour Get together and we’re successful wards we’ve got by no means gained earlier than. So many individuals advised us they’d be voting Labour for the primary time of their lives and it seems that they did simply that.
“It’s a resounding endorsement of the good strategy Cllr Jeremy Gardner has taken and he can be a incredible chief of Adur’s first ever majority Labour council.”
Labour parliamentary candidate Tom Rutland advised us: ‘This can be a phenomenal set of outcomes. Keir Starmer has modified the Labour Get together and we’re successful wards we’ve got by no means gained earlier than. So many individuals advised us they’d be voting Labour for the primary time of their lives and it seems that they did simply that.
“It’s a resounding endorsement of the good strategy Cllr Jeremy Gardner has taken and he can be a incredible chief of Adur’s first ever majority Labour council.’
Full story right here.
5:30pm: Labour achieve Cannock Chase
Labour gained 11 seats to achieve this West Midlands council from no general management. The Tories misplaced 11 seats.
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Labour GAIN Cannock Chase 🌹 pic.twitter.com/BIWqosEAa0
— The Labour Get together (@UKLabour) Might 3, 2024
5:07pm: Labour’s Nuneaton triumph
Learn extra about Labour’s outstanding victory within the bellwether seat – the celebration gained 15 seats whereas the Tories misplaced 14 seats – in my colleague Katie’s story right here.
5pm: Labour paints new metro mayor map crimson – full story
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are in York and North Yorkshire celebrating Labour’s victory within the new mayoralty and rubbing it in for the Tories, certainly one of three new posts Labour has gained alongside the East Midlands and North East posts.
Reeves stated the victory in York and North Yorkshire confirmed there have been “no no-go areas”, and Labour officers famous it was an actual success story in Rishi Sunak’s “again yard”.
Labour can be happy to make such features in contests for elected roles with among the greatest mandates amongst any politicians, displaying the rising metro mayoral map – set in movement by Tory chancellor George Osborne – is popping more and more crimson regardless of a setback in Tees Valley.
Learn full story right here on Labour features in metro mayoralties…
4.50pm: Labour comfortably wins nationwide projected vote share – however declines on 2023 – full story
The BBC has unveiled its projected nationwide vote share based mostly on this 12 months’s native elections, placing Labour on 34% – 9 level up on the Tories, however one level down on its estimated share within the final two units of elections.
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John Curtice has simply unveiled BBC’s projected nationwide vote share: Labour lead 9 factors, similar as final 12 months pic.twitter.com/OWY7Oyx8sD
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) Might 3, 2024
The BBC’s projected nationwide share – which estimates the share of the vote the primary events would have gained if voters throughout Britain had behaved in the identical method as those that voted in wards contested by all three fundamental events on this 12 months’s locals – places Labour on 34%, the Tories on 25%, the Lib Dems on 17% and others on 24%.
Learn full story right here, together with a long time of historic knowledge…
4.40pm: Labour loses management in Kirklees after two councillors stop over Gaza
Labour had gained again Kirklees in 2022, however it now has 31 seats, down 5, leaving it nonetheless the most important celebration however with no general majority.
It comes after two councillors stop the celebration over its stance on Gaza earlier this 12 months.
4.20pm: Historic win in Milton Keynes; greatest celebration in Basildon and North Herts
Labour has gained an necessary victory in Milton Keynes, the primary Labour majority on the Buckinghamshire council in 29 years.
Councillor Shanika Mahendran wrote not too long ago for LabourList the realm is “entwined with the historical past” of Labour, from being a profitable postwar new city to internet hosting the Labour-created Open College.
The celebration has ruled in coalition with the Lib Dems since 2014, and Mahendran set out among the wide-ranging achievements that may have helped Labour over the road – from supporting its tech economic system to progressive welfare and local weather insurance policies. She additionally set out its imaginative and prescient, together with breakfast golf equipment for faculties city-wide. It’s price a learn right here.
Labour can also be now the most important celebration in Basildon and North Hertfordshire, with the previous falling to no general management from Tory fingers.
4:05pm: Labour holds Rossendale
Labour holds the Lancashire council.
4:00pm: Labour predicts victory in Nuneaton and Bedworth
Labour predicts it should take Nuneaton and Bedworth council – Nuneaton being a standard bellwether Westminster constituency.
3:44pm: Labour maintain Leeds and Manchester
Two not precisely stunning holds for Labour within the north of England.
3:10pm: Labour maintain Rochdale
That is excellent news given George Galloway’s victory in February’s by-election and his pledge to focus on the city corridor. His Employees’ Get together managed 2 seats, whereas Labour misplaced a seat however stored management of the council.
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Rochdale Council Outcome #LE2024:
LAB: 14 (-1)
CON: 3 (=)
WPB: 2 (+2)
LDM: 1 (=)
LOC: 0 (-1)
Council Now: LAB 44, CON 9, LDM 3, WPB 2, LOC 2.
Labour HOLD. pic.twitter.com/uG0kRbreBc
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) Might 3, 2024
2:50pm: First bits of knowledge from London
We gained’t get outcomes from the London mayoral till tomorrow – anticipated round 3pm – however we do have some by-elections to extrapolate wildly from. In Hillingdon East the image not nice for Labour, including to a basic feeling of nervousness amongst members and activists within the capital, however in Hillrise ward on Islington council issues are safer, with Labour taking 2824 votes to the 2nd place Greens, who scored 1095 votes.
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First bit of knowledge we’ve got from London…
Hillingdon East (Hillingdon) council by-election consequence:
CON: 58.1% (+0.6)
LAB: 27.2% (-8.7)
GRN: 7.2% (+7.2)
LDEM: 5.4% (+5.4)
IND: 2.1% (+2.1)
Conservative HOLD.https://t.co/sE0DTDQABQ
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) Might 3, 2024
2:45pm: Labour obtain “historic win” in Adur – full story right here.
Labour has known as Adur on the south coast, claiming victory for the primary time within the council’s historical past.
The result’s notable too with the final election in thoughts because the district contains the East Worthing and Shoreham constituency, held by the Tories since its creation.
Labour seized management in neighbouring Worthing in 2022, and gained three councillors there this week.
2:30pm: Labour achieve York and North Yorkshire mayor
Labour believes its candidate David Skaith has taken the brand new mayoralty, an space that covers Rishi Sunak’s seat.
A Labour spokesperson stated: “This can be a really historic lead to York and North Yorkshire. Keir Starmer’s Labour celebration is now successful in Rishi Sunak’s yard. The Prime Minister’s personal constituents have taken a take a look at the 2 events and chosen Labour.”
2:15pm: Kim McGuinness elected North East mayor
They have been incoming! Labour’s candidate has been elected with 185,051 votes. Driscoll took 126,652 votes. My colleague Daniel Inexperienced has extra particulars on the brand new mayor right here.
2:12pm: North East mayor outcomes incoming
We’re anticipating the outcomes of the North East mayoral contest shortly. From reporting prematurely, it appears pretty doubtless that Labour’s Kim McGuinness can be elected, beating Jamie Driscoll, the previous Labour mayor of North Tyne, who has run as an impartial.
2:07pm: PCC achieve in Wales
Jane Mudd has been elected because the Police and Crime Commissioner for Gwent. The celebration additionally expects its candidate Emma Wools to win the South Wales PCC put up. They would be the first feminine PCCs in Wales.
2:03pm: Labour holds Worthing, Knowsley
BBC studies Labour has held Worthing and Knowsley – neither sudden outcomes.
1:58pm: Labour predicts victory in Milton Keynes
Labour suppose’s it’s taken full management of the council in Milton Keynes, which has 3 goal Westminster seats – all at present Conservative held. Labour haven’t had full management since 2000.
1:34pm: Bedfordshire PCC achieve
Labour’s John Tizard has gained the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner race, not one Labour anticipated to select up, I perceive.
1:28pm: Labour wins Hyndburn as Tory MP’s dad loses seat
Labour has simply gained a significant victory in Lancashire’s Hyndburn council, at present in no general management with Labour second largest celebration behind the Tories. Labour made 4 features and misplaced one seat to the Greens.
The Tories maintain the constituency by just a few thousand votes too, so it’s one to observe forward of the final election.
Labour features included narrowly ousting the daddy of the native Tory MP. One native supply known as it “large” in a “Tory stronghold” ward.
1:15pm: Labour predict victory in East Midlands
Labour thinks its candidate Clare Ward has crushed the incumbent Tory Ben Bradley within the East Midlands Mayoralty.
Labour supply calls the East Midlands “the beating coronary heart of the final election battleground”, highlighting that the realm covers dozen key parliamentary battleground seats – together with Mansfield, Bradley’s personal seat, Bolsover, South Derbyshire, and Bassetlaw.
In an unique interview with LabourList within the last days of the native election marketing campaign, deputy marketing campaign coordinator Ellie Reeves had stated the brand new East Midlands mayoralty could be a “higher barometer” of the nationwide temper than different mayoral contests.
The mixed authority space covers Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire.
Inside Labour’s native election marketing campaign: Ellie Reeves on the place to spend polling day and the important thing contests to observe
See extra
1:10pm: Councils gained and misplaced
Try our full record of councils gained and misplaced within the 2024 native elections – full story right here.
1:00pm: Labour condemns “racist” quote
Labour has distanced itself from the quote that Labour Muslim Community Chair Ali Milani had described as racist, echoing this description with a spokesperson telling the BBC: “The Labour celebration has strongly condemned this racist quote which has not come from anybody who’s talking on behalf of the celebration or who’s values are welcome within the celebration”.
12:55pm: Labour’s future prospects in Tees Valley seats look vivid
Labour might have misplaced in Tees Valley as we speak, however Labourlist understands that if the swing to the celebration (16.7%) was repeated on the Common Election, Labour would win each single seat within the Tees Valley and achieve:
Darlington
Hartlepool
Redcar
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Stockton West
12:51pm: Labour maintain Wakefield and Barnsley
The celebration have held councils in Wakefield and Barnsley.
12:48pm: Unhappiness over briefing
Labour Muslim Community chair Ali Milani is amongst these sad with the briefing across the West Mids election (see 12:15), which he’s described as “racist”.
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Two racist briefings from “Labour sources” earlier than we even hit lunch.
What’s it about Muslims that prompts such disdain?
Islamophobia.
It’s blatant, unadulterated, unashamed Islamophobia. pic.twitter.com/9XeKfi5eTu
— Ali Milani (@AliMilaniUK) Might 3, 2024
12:45pm: Help our native and basic election protection
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Reader donations have helped us develop and get out and about to take the heart beat on the marketing campaign path in key areas like Hartlepool, Adur and Dudley. Are you able to be a part of the numerous readers who chip in to help LabourList every month and assist us maintain offering helpful assets for Labour supporters?
Please donate what you possibly can right here – it takes just a few minutes. The extra who donate, the extra we are able to increase our protection of the upcoming basic election: https://labourlist.org/donate/
12:40pm: Labour’s future prospects in Tees Valley
As Ben Houchen formally introduced because the Tees Valley winner, a Labour spokesperson stated:
“That is swing in direction of Labour in Tees Valley places Labour on monitor to win each single seat within the space in a basic election. The Conservatives needs to be extraordinarily apprehensive that their candidate needed to run as an impartial to win. If Rishi Sunak doesn’t take this consequence as a significant get up name he’s in denial.”
12:35pm: Blackburn with Darwen
Labour holds Blackburn with Darwen council, the BBC studies.
12:30pm: North Herts Labour makes features
I spent eve of ballot out in North Herts, the place Labour is hoping to beat the Tories and the Lib Dems to take management of the council. You possibly can learn my story right here – and we’ve simply heard that Labour has gained Nice Ashby ward from the Lib Dems, a optimistic signal for full outcomes, anticipated later this night.
12:27pm: Houchen wins Tees Valley – full story
Labour has failed in its try and unseat Ben Houchen, Sky information and the BBC report.
Sky Information journalist Sam Coates known as it a “huge second” for Downing Road, doubtlessly serving to stave off a rise up in opposition to Rishi Sunak at Westminster. The Tories are prone to current it as a lift for the celebration nationally regardless of Houchen’s private model issue. The channel studies Ben Houchen secured 81,930 votes, with Labour’s Chris McEwan on 63,141, giving Houchen a 53.6% vote share. McEwan bought 41.3%.
12:23pm: One ‘Karl Marx’ wins a seat for Labour – full story
A lot for a purge of the left – “Karl Marx” has been elected as a Labour councillor in Stockport. Councillor Karl Peter Marx Wardlaw gained the ward of Brinnington and Stockport Central, the council’s most disadvantaged space, with 61% of the vote. We will’t vouch for his shade of left politics, however you possibly can learn extra right here from my colleague Dan…
12:15pm: Labour prone to fall brief in West Mids
The BBC are reporting that Labour predicts to fall brief within the West Midlands mayoral race, the place the Tory Andy Road is re-standing. Impartial Akhmed Yakoob is believed to have taken votes from Labour.
A senior Labour supply advised the BBC: “It’s the Center East, not West Midlands, that can have gained [Conservative candidate] Andy Road the mayoralty. As soon as once more Hamas are the true villains.”
LabourList’s Cathleen Clarke was out and about within the West Mids yesterday:
See extra
What an excellent time out on the #labourdoorstep! Polls have now closed and I’ve spent the day in London, Birmingham and West Bromwich. Here’s what I noticed @LabourList thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/cbkmZeMPtF
— Cathleen Clarke (@cathleenc_) Might 2, 2024
11:40am: Labour conceded in Tees Valley – full story.
Labour sources are conceding the Tees Valley contest, regardless of the celebration making progress within the north-east mayoral race.
A Labour supply tells LabourList that regardless of a major swing, which might present Labour successful their Westminster targets within the space, the celebration expects to fall brief within the mayoral race.
Tory Ben Houchen stated he would “work with anyone” even when the Tories lose energy at Westminster.
Learn our full piece on the Tees valley contest.
11:25am: Might Houchen maintain on?
We’re anticipating leads to the Tees Valley mayoral leads to the following hour or so, the place we’ll discover out if Labour’s Chris McEwan has crushed Tory poster-Lord Ben Houchen, who took virtually 73% of the whole vote in 2021.
ITV’s Tom Sheldrick is reporting that Houchen has doubtless prevailed, regardless of a robust Labour displaying in Hartlepool. We’ll discover out this afternoon whether or not Houchen has held his floor.
(Bounce again to prime for up to date information)
11:10am: Avon and Somerset PCC achieve
Hey, it’s Morgan Jones taking on the LabourList outcomes reside weblog for the day.
Labour has taken the Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Commissioner from the Tories, with the BBC reporting that former South West MEP Clare Moody has crushed her Conservative predecessor by 4900 votes.
See extra
Labour GAIN Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Commissioner from the Conservatives – congratulations to @ClareMoody4PCC 🌹 pic.twitter.com/letsJMDQ2l
— The Labour Get together (@UKLabour) Might 3, 2024
11.00am: Tory wards in Bedworth ‘too near name’
A Labour activist who has been campaigning for the Nuneaton and Bedworth council election has advised LabourList that the majority Conservative wards in Bedworth look “too near name”.
He additionally stated that the race for Warwickshire’s Police and Crime Commissioner election appears “very optimistic” for Labour.
10.49am: Labour holds Swindon
Though solely seven of 20 seats have been declared, Labour has held management of Swindon council. The celebration gained management of the council final 12 months and has to this point gained two seats from the Conservatives.
10.45am: Which mayoral outcomes are we anticipating as we speak?
4 mayoral election outcomes are anticipated to be introduced later as we speak.
The primary of those, at round noon, is the brand new North East mayoralty, the place a latest ballot urged an in depth race between Labour’s Kim McGuinness and impartial Jamie Driscoll. This can be carefully adopted by the Tees Valley mayoralty at 12.30pm, the place Ben Houchem is going through off in opposition to Labour’s Chris McEwan.
Later this afternoon is the East Midlands mayoral consequence at round 2pm, the place former Labour MP Claire Ward is hoping to win the brand new place, with the York and North Yorkshire mayoral consequence at round 3pm, the place Labour’s David Skaith is hoping to win.
10.30am: Adur Labour ‘optimistic’
Jeremy Gardner, chief of Adur Labour, has advised native newspaper The Argus there’s “little doubt” persons are turning to Labour.
He advised the paper: “We’re optimistic. The depend is at an early stage however issues are wanting optimistic. There definitely can be extra Labour councillors.”
Labour must win seven seats to achieve majority management of the council, whereas the Tories solely must lose one seat to push the council into no general management.
We caught up with Cllr Gardner and his Labour colleagues on the marketing campaign path final month, as they combat to be the primary Labour administration for the realm.
10.15am: Labour achieve Avon and Somerset PCC
Labour’s Clare Moody has gained the police and crime commissioner race in Avon and Somerset from the Conservatives. Moody beat her Tory rival by round 5,000 votes.
She advised the BBC: “My priorities are round bringing policing nearer to the communities, neighbourhood policing, tackling violent crime, and significantly knife crime and violence in opposition to ladies and ladies.”
10.00am: ‘We intend to win any votes we’ve misplaced’
Folllowing Labour’s lack of Oldham council, Keir Starmer advised the BBC that he’s “clearly involved” wherever the celebration loses votes and stated “we intend to win any votes we’ve misplaced again”.
Nonetheless, he additionally stated there was “no denying” the celebration was successful votes throughout the nation.
“I’m very happy with the outcomes – we’re selecting up seats the place we’d like them in different elements of the nation as nicely,” he stated.
9.25am: The UK’s youngest Labour councillor?
Daisy Blakemore says she is the UK’s youngest Labour councillor after the 18-year-old was elected in Peterborough final evening. Labour grew to become the most important celebration on the council following a collapse in Conservative help, who misplaced 13 seats.
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I’m now formally the youngest labour councillor… perhaps even the youngest within the U.Okay!!
Thanks for everybody’s help in Fletton & Woodston- i stay up for representing you. Let’s maintain that crimson flag flying🌹.#labour #youthvoice #YL #Peterborough https://t.co/AqYx6NFP2n
— Daisy Blakemore (@DaisyBlakemore) Might 3, 2024
9.10am: Turnout for Tees Valley mayoral race introduced
Turnout for the Tees Valley mayoral election was 30.5%, barely down on the 34% on the final election. The result’s understood to be anticipated at round noon.
8.50am: ‘First-class consequence’ in Blackpool, says Keir Starmer
Labour chief Keir Starmer has been visiting Blackpool South following the celebration’s victory within the parliamentary by-election. He thanked all those that put their belief in Labour and stated: “A message has been despatched on to the Prime Minister – we’re fed up along with your chaos, your decline and your division and we would like change.”
7.20am: All of the councils gained and misplaced to this point – and a lull in vote-counting
We’re preserving a rolling tally of the councils gained and misplaced by Labour to this point right here.
GAINS: Hartlepool, Rushmoor, Thurrock, Redditch.
LOSSES: Oldham.
Extra particulars on every of these and extra updates on every other huge council modifications right here as we get them.
There’s a lull in vote-counting and outcomes now for the following few hours – so we’ll take a brief break now and be again with updates later this morning…within the meantime, try among the key moments to this point:
READ MORE: Meet Blackpool South’s new Labour MP after ‘seismic’ landslide
READ MORE: Labour loses Oldham amid ‘Gaza backlash’
READ MORE: Thurrock: Labour calls victory in Depart-voting goal seat
READ MORE: Hartlepool: Labour takes management in ‘Crimson Wall’ city
6.50am: Labour proud of progress in key battlegrounds
Get together officers say Labour is “successful within the areas that can determine the final election”. Rushmoor, Thurrock, Hartlepool and Blackpool “overlap with battlegrounds for the following election”, with council leads to such areas “a greater information to what’s going to occur on the subsequent basic election than the mayoral elections”.
The ultimate level is clearly meant to deflect consideration away from the West Midlands and Tees Valley contests, which look tight. Tories hope to current merely holding on as a optimistic signal for the governing celebration, regardless of their candidates distancing themselves from the celebration and elections skilled Sir John Curtice suggesting the contests are a poor proxy for the final election.
6.35am: Bolton stays in no general management; Labour holds Southampton
Labour has held Southampton council, which it gained in 2022.
Nevertheless it has not gained Bolton as at the least some observers had anticipated, which has been in no general management since 2019 and stays that method.
Labour stays the most important celebration although on 26 councillors, to the Tories 15, with a internet lack of one seat after 21 seats have been declared.
Elsewhere, Labour has held Lincoln and Tameside.
6.15am: Labour loses management in Oldham – full story
Oldham Labour has misplaced management of the council in north-west England, with the celebration shedding seats to independents in 5 wards, in response to the BBC.
The native authority is now in no general management, having been in energy since 2011. Two former Labour councillors had stop the celebration within the run-up to polling day over the celebration’s stance on Gaza, native media recommend, regardless of the native Labour group backing a ceasefire.
Retiring councillor Paul Fryer advised The Oldham Instances: “Labour have been in energy in Oldham for 13 years, maybe persons are a bit bored with Labour. In some elements of the borough it’s the Gaza concern that will lose them the seat.”
Full story right here.
5.45am: State of play at daybreak as 250 Labour seat features anticipated
The BBC’s tentative projections based mostly on the primary third of councils to declare recommend Labour is on target for 250 seat features. It has to this point gained 58 councillors and 4 councils, whereas the Tories have misplaced three.
The Tories are projected to lose 516 seats, with former Conservative Residence Tim Montgomery arguing Rishi Sunak ought to “go”.
Labour’s projected share of the vote at round 5.40am was up 5 proportion factors on 2021, when the Tories carried out comparatively nicely in a bounce broadly attributed to the Covid vaccine rollout, and 0.2 proportion factors on 2023 when Labour had a robust displaying.
(Bounce again to prime for up to date information)
5.34am: Watch Chris Webb after landslide Blackpool South win
The latest Labour MP-in-waiting Chris Webb stated in his victory speech voters have been “sick of the federal government’s failure to deal with the massive points going through our nation”, and demanded an election. The BBC’s now shared the clip:
See extra
“Prime minister, do the respectable factor, admit you’ve got failed and name a basic election”
Labour’s latest MP Chris Webb sends a message to Rishi Sunak after claiming victory in Blackpool South by-election
Observe reside: https://t.co/KtZdAsG4EX pic.twitter.com/GPTWQnKHHe
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) Might 3, 2024
5.20am: Tories maintain on in Harlow
The Tories have held on in Harlow, reportedly with 17 seats to Labour’s 16. Keir Starmer and his deputy Angela Rayner had visited earlier this week.
Native Tory MP Rob Halfon known as it “the most important comeback since Lazarus”.
See extra
Largest comeback since Lazarus. Labour predicted landslide in Harlow with 2 visits from Starmer – however Harlow Compassionate Conservatives retained management of @HarlowCouncil by relentlessly specializing in freezing council tax, regeneration & housing. Pleased with @HarlowTories & chief…
— Robert Halfon MP ➡️Working Exhausting for Harlow⬅️ (@halfon4harlowMP) Might 3, 2024
5.10am: Labour features Redditch from the Tories
Labour has gained Redditch council from the Tories, making ten features to take its complete to 21, whereas the Tories misplaced 11 councillors, falling to only 5 in complete, the BBC studies.
A Labour Get together spokesperson stated: “This can be a nice lead to Redditch that reveals Labour is again within the service of working folks. Labour have gained in Redditch by campaigning on the problems that matter to the neighborhood.
“Making features on this bellwether seat is a transparent signal that Labour is about to realize a sizeable majority in a basic election.”
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Labour GAIN Redditch from the Conservatives 🌹 pic.twitter.com/sHIqmjv07J
— The Labour Get together (@UKLabour) Might 3, 2024
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5.00am: Starmer hails ‘seismic win’ in Blackpool South
Labour chief Keir Starmer stated: “This seismic win in Blackpool South is a very powerful consequence as we speak. That is the one contest the place voters had the possibility to ship a message to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives straight, and that message is an awesome vote for change.
“The swing in direction of the Labour Get together in Blackpool South is really historic and reveals that we’re firmly again within the service of working folks.
“I’m so happy with the optimistic marketing campaign we ran. To those that have put their belief in us in Blackpool, and people contemplating giving Labour their vote, we’re able to serve your pursuits.
“Our new Labour MP Chris Webb has proven that after years of neglect with the Tories, there’s a higher various. The message to Rishi Sunak is obvious. It’s time for change, it’s time for a basic election.”
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Labour GAIN from the Conservatives 🌹
Congratulations to @ChrisPWebb, the brand new Labour MP for Blackpool South. pic.twitter.com/iXHxG7yEev
— The Labour Get together (@UKLabour) Might 3, 2024
4.48am: Labour wins in key Blackpool South by-election check
Simply in: Labour has gained within the one Westminster by-election being held amid native elections, the marginal Blackpool South seat it misplaced it in 2019. Extra updates imminently. Full story right here.
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Blackpool South parliamentary by-election, consequence:
LAB: 58.9% (+20.6)
CON: 17.5% (-32.1)
REF: 16.9% (+10.7)
LDEM: 2.1% (-1.0)
GRN: 2.0% (+0.3)
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) Might 3, 2024
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4.45am: Labour holds Exeter and Studying
Labour has held Exeter council, although it misplaced two seats in response to the BBC, ending the evening on 24 councillors. There was minimal change throughout the council, with a achieve apiece for the Greens, Lib Dems and Independents, whereas the Tories misplaced one seat.
Labour has additionally held Studying council, with no change in its general variety of councillors, 32.
4.30am: Labour features Cumbria police, hearth and crime commissioner place
Labour has gained the Cumbria police, hearth and crime commissioner place from the Tories.
In keeping with the Election Maps UK X account, Labour took 47.4% of vote, 21.3 factors up, whereas the Tories noticed their vote share fall by 23.2 factors to 30.4%.
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Labour GAIN Cumbria Police, Hearth and Crime Commissioner from the Conservatives – congratulations to David Allen🌹 pic.twitter.com/5B3w4YU4vd
— The Labour Get together (@UKLabour) Might 3, 2024
4.25am: Tories win first police and crime commissioner contest to declare
The Tories have gained the Lincolnshire police and crime commissioner contest – however noticed their vote share take a substantial hit.
In keeping with the Election Maps UK X account, the Tories’ vote share fell by 23.3 factors to 36.6%, whereas Labour’s vote share elevated by 9.5 factors to 29.5%.
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Lincolnshire PCC Election Outcome:
🌳 CON: 36.6% (-23.3)
🌹 LAB: 29.5% (+9.5)
➡️ RFM: 14.3% (+10.7)
🔶 LDM: 12.4% (+6.5)
🛡️ EDem: 7.2% (New)
No LincsInds (-10.7) as earlier.
Conservative HOLD.https://t.co/GZCfvh04wL pic.twitter.com/oXDSAeaErv
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) Might 3, 2024
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4.00am: Ashworth says outcomes to this point present ‘momentum’
Jonathan Ashworth has advised the BBC that the Rushmoor consequence was “outstanding”, including: “I believe we’d win the Aldershot constituency on this set of outcomes.”
The shadow paymaster basic stated: “It’s a beautiful consequence for us tonight in Rushmoor and a spot the place has by no means been Labour and wasn’t even Labour within the Tony Blair years… We’ve taken again Hartlepool council – very, essential on condition that we misplaced the Hartlepool constituency a number of years in the past.
“Thurrock, that’s a seat, that the constituency of Thurrock we misplaced in 2010. And we’ve been all the time eager to get that one again, in order that’s a really, excellent consequence. Making features in Peterborough, one other marginal goal seat for us. Making beautiful leads to Plymouth – the Tory vote is actually collapsing in Plymouth.”
Ashworth acknowledged that it’s nonetheless “early within the weekend for the outcomes” however argued: “The developments to this point does present that there’s some momentum right here.”
3.45am: Labour holds Gateshead, Ipswich, Plymouth, Sefton and Wigan
The BBC is reporting that Labour has held Gateshead, Ipswich, Plymouth, Sefton and Wigan.
In Plymouth – which was amongst key features Labour made finally 12 months’s native elections – Labour continues to make progress with counting nonetheless underway, having already gained 5 seats. The Conservatives have to this point misplaced eight seats.
3.30am: Turnout for Blackpool South by-election was 32.5%
The turnout for the Blackpool South by-election is being reported as 32.5%. That compares to turnouts of 37.1% and 38% respectively in latest by-elections in Kingswood and Wellingborough.
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Turnout for Blackpool South is 32.5%
— Helen Catt (@BBCHelenCatt) Might 3, 2024
3.15am: Full outcomes for Rushmoor and Thurrock
Sizzling on the heels of Labour claiming victory in Rushmoor, the total outcomes for the council have now been introduced, confirming a Labour achieve. In keeping with the BBC, Labour has gained seven seats to take its complete to 21, whereas the Tories misplaced eight, falling to fifteen councillors.
We even have full outcomes from Thurrock, with the BBC reporting that Labour made eight features to take its complete to 27, whereas the Conservatives misplaced 12 seats, ending the evening on 13.
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3.10am: Labour says it should win Rushmoor
Labour is claiming it’s going to win Rushmoor, in what a spokesperson described as a “really historic consequence”. They continued: “Rushmoor – the house of the British Military – has by no means had a majority Labour council earlier than and has been run by the Tories for the final 24 years.
“This consequence demonstrates simply how a lot the Labour Get together has modified and other people in Rushmoor know that solely Labour can ship the change they need to see. A Labour achieve for Rushmoor is a consequence Rishi Sunak can’t ignore. It’s time for a basic election.”
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Labour GAIN Rushmoor from the Conservatives 🌹 pic.twitter.com/08gzqFUNyc
— The Labour Get together (@UKLabour) Might 3, 2024
3.00am: Tories lose North East Lincolnshire to no general management
The Tories have misplaced North East Lincolnshire council to no general management, shedding seven councillors whereas Labour gained six, with two seats left to be declared.
The council space is at present represented by two Tory MPs: Martin Vickers, MP for Cleethorpes, and Lia Nici, MP for Nice Grimsby.
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That is extra prefer it for Labour. Got here in with zero seats to defend tonight in Grimsby. Completed up with six features.
And extra importantly – a lot improved on the place they have been final 12 months.https://t.co/8n7JN042w1 pic.twitter.com/7QYGBzJYwt
— Ben Walker (@BNHWalker) Might 3, 2024
2.45am: New Labour chief of Hartlepool council speaks to the BBC
The brand new Labour chief of Hartlepool council Brenda Harrison has spoken to the BBC, saying that the celebration “labored so onerous to get the belief of the folks in Hartlepool again to Labour.”
“We’ve been making an attempt to have interaction with folks for a very long time – not simply the previous couple of weeks, displaying them that we do have a Labour group in Hartlepool who can lead the council nicely,” she stated.
Harrison stated she thinks it’s “extremely doubtless” Labour will take again the parliamentary seat on the basic election, saying native folks “really feel that they need change” and really feel that the Labour Get together “has modified sufficient for them to place their belief in them”.
2.30am: Labour claims victory in Thurrock – full story
Labour is claiming victory in Thurrock, with eight seats left to declare. The celebration has to this point gained 5 seats, whereas the Tories have misplaced six, in response to the BBC. Learn the total story right here.
A Labour Get together spokesperson stated: “That is precisely the sort of place we should be successful to achieve a majority in a basic election. The folks of Thurrock have despatched the Conservatives a message that they need change.”
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2.20am: Labour (formally) wins Hartlepool – full story
Labour has formally gained Hartlepool council, a bit over an hour after it claimed victory in the important thing goal native authority. In keeping with the BBC, Labour made eight features to take its complete on the council to 24, whereas the Tories misplaced six councillors, halving the celebration’s general complete.
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LABOUR WINS HARTLEPOOL
Keir Starmer has modified the Labour Get together and now the Labour Get together is able to change the nation. pic.twitter.com/JVS2kmDV27
— Hartlepool Labour Get together (@HartlepoolCLP) Might 3, 2024
2.15am: Labour sees a number of losses in South Tyneside
Full outcomes are additionally in for South Tyneside now. In keeping with the BBC, Labour misplaced ten seats on the council, ending the evening on 28, with a sequence of features for Independents and the Greens.
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South Tyneside Council Outcome #LE2024:
INDs: 10 (+9)
LAB: 4 (-10)
GRN: 4 (+2)
CON: 0 (-1)
Council Now: LAB 28, INDs 15, GRN 11.
Labour HOLD. pic.twitter.com/D6NSZCYrK4
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) Might 3, 2024
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Labour went into South Tyneside defending 14 seats. Ended up successful 4.
Outcomes now on our web site: https://t.co/sE0DTDQ2Mi pic.twitter.com/FvZKMeLz57
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) Might 3, 2024
2.00am: Full outcomes for Sunderland council
Full outcomes for Sunderland council have now been introduced. In keeping with the BBC, Labour made six features, taking 18 of the 25 seats up for election. Its complete on the council is now 53, whereas the Liberal Democrats have 12 councillors and the Tories have ten.
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Sunderland Council Outcome #LE2024:
LAB: 18 (+6)
LDM: 4 (-1)
CON: 3 (-5)
Council Now: LAB 53, LDM 12, CON 10.
Labour HOLD. pic.twitter.com/rSLC3syLDG
— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) Might 3, 2024
1.45am: Labour holds Chorley, South Tyneside and Newcastle
The BBC is reporting that Labour has held Chorley council, with the vast majority of outcomes but to be introduced. It is usually reporting that the celebration has held South Tyneside and, regardless of some losses, Newcastle-upon-Tyne.
1.30am: Labour sees some vital losses in Newcastle
Britain Elects studies a sequence of losses for Labour in Newcastle within the outcomes introduced to this point – each to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats – although it additionally studies that Labour has gained one seat from the council’s impartial group.
It’s understood a low-traffic neighbourhood coverage got here up negatively on the doorstep. A trial was scrapped early in February amid criticism from native companies and a residents’ group.
The make-up of the council heading into these elections was 47 Labour councillors, 22 Lib Dems, 4 Independents, three within the Newcastle Independents group and two vacancies.
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Alison McGovern tells @TimesRadio that Labour losses to the Greens in Newcastle – which some attribute to the celebration’s stance on Gaza – are worrying. Says the place Labour has misplaced the celebration will take heed to folks, it’s a really critical concern, folks have robust views and Labour must…
— Kate McCann (@KateEMcCann) Might 3, 2024
In keeping with Britain Elects, Labour noticed its vote share in Byker ward fall by 22.3 factors, with the Greens surging to 56.8% of the vote to take the seat off the ruling celebration. The outlet studies that Labour confronted a good bigger fall in its vote share of 24.7 factors in Elswick ward, which the Greens additionally gained.
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Byker (Newcastle Upon Tyne) council election consequence:
GRN: 56.8% (+42.2)
LAB: 35.6% (-22.3)
CON: 5.1% (-17.1)
LDEM: 2.5% (-2.8)
Inexperienced GAIN from Labour.https://t.co/sE0DTDQ2Mi
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) Might 3, 2024
12.50am: Labour says it has gained Hartlepool – full story
A Labour spokesperson stated the celebration expects to win management again of Hartlepool council. Learn the total story right here, together with its significance.
“Profitable again Hartlepool council is a groundbreaking second after the disappointing outcomes we noticed right here in 2021.
“Keir Starmer pledged to alter the Labour Get together after that consequence, and as we speak’s win reveals that this modified Labour celebration is able to ship the change that communities like Hartlepool are crying out for. Making features right here reveals that the Get together is on monitor to win a basic election and is firmly again within the service of working folks.”
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Labour GAIN Hartlepool 🌹 pic.twitter.com/dmAHyWGr08
— The Labour Get together (@UKLabour) Might 3, 2024
12.30am: Labour holds Sunderland council
The primary results of the evening is in! Labour has held Sunderland council, successful the 4 seats it wanted to take care of its majority. Counting continues for the remaining seats up for grabs.
Some commentators have highlighted Reform UK’s efficiency within the wards the place outcomes have been introduced to this point, nevertheless, and the right-wing celebration has claimed that the outcomes present it’s “quick changing into the primary opposition to Labour within the Crimson Wall”.
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Simply a few wards however Reform posting some respectable showings in Sunderland. It’s a little bit of an uncommon council however just about direct transference from the Conservatives… https://t.co/XjMVXrpuzH
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) Might 2, 2024
12.15am: Phillipson ‘assured’ Labour will make progress in Tees Valley
Bridget Phillipson has advised the BBC that she is “assured” Labour will make progress in Tees Valley, although she pressured that Ben Houchen secured an “huge share of the vote” in 2021, which she stated would require a “large” 23% swing for Labour to take the mayoralty.
“I’m assured we’ll make progress,” the Shadow Schooling Secretary stated, including: “I’m assured that we are going to make progress come the final election on Teesside.”
Phillipson continued: “I believe that does display the size of the change that we’ve seen below Keir Starmer from the place we have been again in 2021, shedding that by-election.”
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11.45pm: Dodds on what success would seem like for Labour
Anneliese Dodds has advised Sky Information that the Blackpool South by-election would be the key contest to observe to evaluate the general energy of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
On her native elections predictions, the Labour Get together chair stated: “I believe the secret is going to be to see whether or not Labour’s transferring ahead in these areas the place it’s actually vital that we construct help earlier than the following basic election.”
Pressed on what Labour will name a “success” in these native elections, Dodds stated: “The important thing factor as I stated earlier than is the place that help’s going to come back from, when it comes to the affect this may occasionally have on the final election.
“Is Labour going to be selecting up these seats within the areas that we have to win for the final election? It appears doubtless that we are going to be.
“However then additionally, quite the opposite, will the Conservatives truly be selecting up seats? As I say, in the event that they don’t, then truly they’re going to be doing worse than John Main was within the run-up to the ’97 election.”
11.30pm: LGIU: Locals ‘will not be a warm-up act for basic elections’
Native Authorities Data Unit (LGIU) chief government Jonathan Carr-West pressured on the shut of polls that native elections “will not be a warm-up act for basic elections” however “essential chapters in our democracy” that “will decide the leaders who will serve our communities and make the choices that straight affect our lives”.
Carr-West wrote for LabourList within the run-up to the native elections, figuring out key assessments and councils to observe for Labour in every area – together with Thurrock, Hartlepool, Pendle, Hastings, Swindon, Bristol, Redditch and Dudley.
He wrote: “The foremost anticipated shifts are inside the present no general management councils, the place modifications are extra doubtless, particularly as a result of a lot of them are at present minority councils the place a number of seats might make a significant distinction to political management (together with 22 Conservative minority councils).”
10.45pm: Dodds: ‘I’m assured we’ll see Chris Webb elected’
Labour Get together chair Anneliese Dodds has advised the BBC she is “assured” that Chris Webb can be elected in Blackpool South, telling Newsnight: “I’m assured that we’ll see Chris Webb being elected there. I hope we’ll do.”
Britain Elects has launched its forecast for the by-election consequence, projecting a Labour achieve with 50% of the vote:
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Our forecast for Blackpool South:
LAB: 50% (+12)
CON: 30% (-20)
REF: 14% (+8)
GRN: 5% (+3)
LDEM: 3% (-)
by way of @BritainElects / Britain Predicts modelhttps://t.co/7NYNdyGOTL
— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) Might 2, 2024
10.30pm: Khan additionally thanks volunteers and voters – and divulges his polling day step depend
Sadiq Khan has additionally posted after the polls closed, thanking “everybody who volunteered, who gave up their time and who voted” – and revealing that his polling day step depend was greater than 42,000.
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15 hours. Lots of of doorways knocked. 42,000 steps.
Thanks to everybody who volunteered, who gave up their time, and who voted. ❤️🙏🏿 pic.twitter.com/CNjIpc8Ddf
— Sadiq Khan (@SadiqKhan) Might 2, 2024
10.25pm: Starmer thanks voters and campaigners
Labour chief Keir Starmer has posted on X after polls closed, thanking “everybody who voted for and campaigned for Labour over the native elections”.
“Change occurs due to you,” he added.
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Thanks to everybody who voted for and campaigned for Labour over the native elections.
Change occurs due to you.pic.twitter.com/nPQSv889Xr
— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) Might 2, 2024
The celebration’s nationwide marketing campaign coordinator Pat McFadden made Labour’s official assertion on the shut of the polls, saying: “We’re happy with the optimistic marketing campaign we’ve got run, targeted on turning the web page after 14 years of decline below the Conservative Get together.
“These elections have been about providing change. We’ve got set out our plan to get Britain constructing once more, take again our streets, and convey alternative to each nook of the nation, whereas the Conservatives have as soon as once more stayed silent on the problems that matter.
“A very powerful election of the evening is the historic by-election in Blackpool, brought on by but extra Tory chaos and scandal. It’s the one election as we speak the place voters have had the chance to straight reject Rishi Sunak’s celebration in Westminster.
“It’s going to be an extended evening and the total image of outcomes from native elections will not be clear till over the weekend, however we count on to see Labour features that present we’re making progress within the locations we have to win the following basic election.”
10.15pm: What sort of council seats are up for election, and are they all-outs, thirds or halves?
Senior Labour determine Luke Akehurst’s latest preview piece for us defined the councils up for election are:
Each seat (191 councillors) in three Metropolitan Boroughs (Dudley, North Tyneside and Rotherham)
One third of the seats (615 councillors) in 28 Metropolitan Boroughs
Each seat (264 councillors) in 4 Unitary Councils (Bristol, Dorset, Warrington and Wokingham)
One third of the seats (219 councillors) in 14 Unitary Councils
Each seat (753 councillors) in 18 District Councils
Half the seats (69 councillors) in 4 District Councils
One third of the seats (481 councillors) in 36 District Councils
Additionally up for election are:
The Mayor of London, and all 25 seats within the London Meeting
9 Mixed Authority Mayors (East Midlands, Larger Manchester, Liverpool Metropolis Area, North East, South Yorkshire, Tees Valley, West Midlands, West Yorkshire, York & North Yorkshire)
The Mayor of Salford
All 35 Police and Crime Commissioners in England, and 4 Police and Crime Commissioners in Wales
Lots of the council seats have been final contested in 2021, although some have been contested extra not too long ago.
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10.05pm: When are all of the native election outcomes introduced?
Yow will discover probably the most dependable information to once we will get specific native council outcomes on the PA Media web site right here, although it isn’t a precise science.
The primary outcomes are anticipated in Broxbourne within the very early hours, and key battleground Hartlepool – the place Labour misplaced each council management and a by-election lately – will come quickly after that.
Outcomes will proceed trickling in from completely different councils till about 5am, although it’s then anticipated there’ll be a lull till round lunchtime on Friday, when races together with the North East mayoralty and Tees Valley are anticipated to declare.
An additional string of outcomes can be introduced on Saturday afternoon, together with the West Midlands, London and South and North Yorkshire mayoralties. A final handful will come on Sunday afternoon.
10.00pm: What would good native election outcomes be for Labour, and what are the important thing ones to observe?
Keir Starmer and his spouse vote within the London mayoral and London Meeting elections. Photograph: Labour
Good night – LabourList journalists Katie Neame and Tom Belger right here to steer you thru election evening…
Main election specialists Collin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have predicted the Tories might lose as much as 500 seats, and Labour might make round 300 features.
Thrasher and one other skilled, Hannah Bunting, argue that round 350 features would match final 12 months’s efficiency, although nonetheless not be at Blair-era ranges, whereas features of round 200 could be “beneath par” and nicely beneath the polls, and features of round 100 could be an actual “hazard signal”.
One other skilled, Sir John Curtice, has stated that whereas there’s vital consideration on the Tories’ Tees Valley and West Midlands mayoralties, they’re among the many least dependable indicators of potential Westminster sentiment – partly as polling already signifies a big discrepancy between mayoral and Westminster voting intentions there, with private manufacturers contributing to Tory incumbents’ success so far.
In a LabourList interview this week, deputy nationwide marketing campaign coordinator Ellie Reeves declined to place a determine on the approximate variety of seat features senior Labour figures could be proud of.“What we actually can be is progress that we’re making within the areas that we have to win a basic election.”
Reeves cited examples like Cannock Chase, Redditch and Dudley within the West Midlands, Harlow and Thurrock in jap England, and Milton Keynes and Rushmoor within the South East. Keir Starmer has additionally stated Labour needs to win from “Hastings to Hartlepool”.
Labour nationwide government committee member Luke Akehurst wrote a primer for us final month on potential Labour metrics of success. He stated Labour would hope for features too in Bolton and Burnley within the North West, and Tamworth and Worcester within the West Midlands. Different attention-grabbing metrics embody projected nationwide vote share (2023: 35%), uncooked councillor numbers (2023: 6,415), internet councillor features (536) and councils managed (2023: 116).
In the meantime, Native Authorities Data Unit chief government Jonathan Carr-West has additionally written for us on the important thing councils to observe in every area – and Katie’s finished a round-up of among the attention-grabbing contests to observe as we stay up for the final election, together with Swindon.
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Native election outcomes 2024: Nationwide image
READ MORE: Stay updates on key native election outcomes all through the evening
READ MORE: Key native council elections to observe for clues on our basic election possibilities
READ MORE: Interview: Ellie Reeves on the place Labour searching for ‘progress’
READ MORE: ‘The important thing assessments for Labour in every area’
READ MORE: What would good 2024 native election outcomes seem like for Labour?
READ MORE: Battleground PPCs optimistic’ on their native and basic election possibilities
Native election outcomes 2024: Inside key battleground campaigns
READ MORE: Meet Blackpool South’s new Labour MP after ‘seismic’ landslide
READ MORE: Thurrock: Labour calls victory in Depart-voting goal seat
READ MORE: Hartlepool: Labour takes management in ‘Crimson Wall’ city
READ MORE: Tees Valley: Meet Labour candidate vying to oust Ben Houchen
READ MORE: Hartlepool: Inside Labour’s bid to take again management in ‘crimson wall’ city
READ MORE: North East: ‘Why Jamie Driscoll’s marketing campaign ought to give Labour pause for thought’
READ MORE: Tom Baldwin: ‘What Blackpool’s deckchairs inform us about its by-election’
READ MORE: Dudley: The place Labour’s native marketing campaign started, and it can’t afford to lose
READ MORE: North Herts: ‘We need to present Labour can demolish the blue wall’
READ MORE: Adur: How a crimson wave can finish 25-year Tory grip on south coast
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