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Canadian Press
Kelly Geraldine Malone
Revealed Nov 05, 2024 • 4 minute learn
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People are going through a call about the way forward for their nation and irrespective of which president they in the end select Canada can’t escape the pull of political polarization from its closest neighbour. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
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WASHINGTON — Tens of millions of People are heading to the polls Tuesday as a chaotic presidential marketing campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States, the place voters in solely a handful of battleground states will select the nation’s path ahead.
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Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have introduced starkly totally different visions for America’s future, however polling exhibits the 2 stay in a lifeless warmth.
“Any election in the U.S. is important and impactful for us,” stated Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to america. “They are central to our economic prosperity. They are a vital security partner.”
Hillman has been travelling throughout America assembly with key members of the Republican and Democrat groups to arrange for any end result. On election night time, after her embassy duties are completed, she’ll be watching the outcomes along with her husband and associates — and stated she’s leaning towards ordering pizza.
Whereas the gathering with family members might convey solace amid the anxious anticipation, Hillman is aware of greater than anybody the immense stakes at play for Canada.
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“Whoever is sitting in the Oval Office and populating Congress is making decisions that may affect Canada, either decisions that provide us with opportunities or decisions that pose challenges for us,” Hillman stated. “The job is to be ready for both.”
A shared historical past and eight,891-kilometre border is not going to defend Canada from the election’s end result. Each candidates have proposed protectionist insurance policies, however specialists warn if the Republican chief prevails the connection between the neighbours may very well be way more troublesome.
“Trump and some of the key people around him, including (former trade representative) Robert Lighthizer, really want to stick it to Canada,” stated Fen Hampson, a professor of worldwide affairs at Carleton College in Ottawa.
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Trump’s first administration demonstrated how weak Canada is to America’s whims when the previous president scrapped the North American Free Commerce Settlement.
Negotiating its successor, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Settlement, was a key take a look at for Ottawa after Trump’s victory. Whoever takes over the White Home this time can be in cost in the course of the settlement’s assessment in 2026.
A trigger for concern in Canada and all over the world is Trump’s proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests these tariffs would shrink the Canadian financial system, leading to round $30 billion per 12 months in financial prices.
American economists warned Trump’s plan might trigger inflation, and probably a recession, which might virtually actually have ripple results in Canada. Greater than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the united statesand commerce includes 60 per cent of Canada’s gross home product.
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“When the American economy is growing, it’s generally good for us,” Hampson stated. “If they take a deep dive under Trump … that will have a knock-on effect on us, on top of tariffs.”
The election end result might additionally redefine America’s function on this planet. Trump is important of giving assist to Ukraine in its conflict in opposition to Russia, has attacked the United Nations and repeatedly claimed he wouldn’t defend NATO members that don’t meet defence spending targets — one thing Canada will not be doing, and received’t for years.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised to satisfy the goal of spending the equal of two per cent of GDP on defence by 2032.
Trump’s first tenure additionally noticed the Republican chief withdraw from the Paris Settlement, a world treaty to chop greenhouse gases.
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Hampson stated the Republicans’ push in opposition to worldwide establishments and treaties can have “a profound impact” on Canada, but additionally key allies and the world order itself.
If Harris wins, it’s broadly anticipated that there can be extra regular relations based mostly on established patterns and guidelines, but it surely doesn’t essentially imply easy crusing for Canada.
It’s anticipated the vice-president would comply with the trail laid by President Joe Biden on international coverage and commerce with Canada.
Biden signed an govt order to revoke the allow for the Keystone XL pipeline, which might have transferred oil from Alberta to Nebraska. The administration’s Purchase America procurement guidelines additionally prompted concern in Canada.
Laura Dawson, an skilled on Canada-U.S. relations and the chief director of the Future Borders Coalition, stated she expects a Harris administration would proceed nationalist and protectionist insurance policies.
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Harris has spoken on the marketing campaign path about the truth that she voted in opposition to the trilateral commerce settlement and stated she is going to return manufacturing jobs to the U.S.
It’s an important slogan and bumper sticker, Dawson stated, “but it’s terrible if you are Canada.”
Dawson warned Trudeau’s crew throughout a cupboard retreat in August that irrespective of who’s the subsequent president, Canada must work tougher to take care of current advantages of built-in commerce and journey.
In the meantime, many People are caught between anxiousness and pleasure. Sixteen-year-old Gavin Kupcho attended his first Trump rally in Wisconsin final week.
“I’ve never felt more enthused in my life,” he stated. “I need lower gas prices since I just got my licence.”
The state of affairs feels extra dire for Antonio White, who travelled from Miami to Milwaukee to knock on doorways for Harris within the essential battleground state. The 63-year-old stated America is at a important level “where people are no longer recognizing fascism when they see it.”
“This is an election we must win for the sanctity of everybody, for the country itself,” he stated.
“Democracy is on the ballot this time.”
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