(Bloomberg) – For a while, many Canadians thought Donald Trump had moved on from the idea of making their nation the 51st US state – his focus more on shaking up Washington and the global trading landscape.
Those thoughts are starting to fade.
The unexpected takeover of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Trump’s intensified talk about acquiring Greenland have unsettled Canada, making citizens reconsider the US president’s previous threats to Canadian sovereignty. The administration’s statement that “THIS IS OUR HEMISPHERE” makes Trump’s earlier comments about annexing Canada feel less like mere jabs at former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau or negotiating tactics in his trade spat with current PM Mark Carney.
A straightforward in Canada’s largest national newspaper gained traction this week cautioning about the potential for Trump to use “military coercion” against Canada. The authors suggested: Learn from Finland’s defenses against Russia. Strengthen the civil defense force. Create a national drone strategy based on Ukraine’s approach. And consider all possibilities.
“It’s all about changing the calculus,” said Thomas Homer-Dixon, one of the writers and a Canadian academic focused on global security issues. “If there is an attempt to use military coercion against us, it needs to be clear that it’s going to be enormously costly.”
This concern has even sparked its own dark humor. A widely-shared piece on The Beaverton, a satirical site akin to The Onion, featured the headline, “Mark Carney turns off geolocation on phone just in case.”
While Trump’s actions have made leaders worldwide uneasy, Canadians have specific reasons for worry. After all, regarding Greenland, Trump and his team are pursuing control – even hinting at military action – over a territory that is democratic, strategically placed in the Arctic, and part of NATO. Canada shares all those traits.
“I think many officials in Ottawa just find it hard to believe that we’re in this space, no matter what the evidence is,” said Wesley Wark, a former adviser to the Canadian government concerning security and border matters. He described Trump’s actions regarding Venezuela and Greenland as “final wake-up calls for Canada that will underscore the reality that the United States is not the country that it used to be.”
What Canada can do to deter Trump remains unclear.
Carney took office last year promising to confront Trump directly, stating that the president “wants to break us so America can own us.” However, since then he has steered clear of provoking his US counterpart while attempting to boost trade with China and other nations in order to reduce Canada’s reliance on its southern neighbor. This week Carney urged respect for Greenland’s and Denmark’s sovereignty without addressing Trump’s earlier threats toward Canada.
Most analysts doubt that US military forces would invade Canada. “I still do believe that’s in the realm of science fiction,” said Stephanie Carvin, an associate professor at Carleton University in Ottawa and a former national security analyst for Canada. “But I do believe – now more than ever – that America is willing to damage Canada’s economy according to what suits the president’s desires.”
She views developments in Venezuela-where Trump asserts dominance over vast oil reserves-as empowering him further. “The president now will be much more willing to engage in adventurism in a quest to dominate the Western Hemisphere,” she stated.
Philippe Lagassé, an associate professor at Carleton specializing in defense policy, indicated one possible scenario could involve an issue beyond Canada’s ability alone-like a significant natural disaster or an attack impacting electrical supplies sent southward into America. “The United States will deal with it for you under this administration-it may not choose to leave afterward-or may impose demands upon you,” he noted. “What steps can Canada take now so as not let America argue it needs intervention here for its own safety?”
Canada’s military isn’t set up for such hostile circumstances; its regular forces along with primary reserves number fewer than 100,000 people tasked with defending one of Earth’s largest land masses. Natural disasters alongside commitments like NATO missions in Latvia stretch their capabilities thin.
Photographer: Cole Burston/Getty Images
Carney’s government plans salary increases for soldiers aimed at recruitment drives while allocating billions towards new fighter jets submarines along with other equipment-all contributing towards finally meeting NATO spending targets set at 2% of gross domestic product (GDP). There’s also talk reported by Canadian media regarding creating a reserve force totaling around 100K members along with supplementary troops numbering around 300K-but implementing most measures will require several years.
Then there’s also concern surrounding potential U. S. interference within Canadian politics.
Alberta , rich due it’s oil resources , has long felt constrained under Ottawa ‘s control. It appears headed towards holding independence referendum , where certain supporters known as ” Maple MAGAs ” dream not only about leaving Canada but possibly joining USA. A separatist organizer named Jeffrey Rath shared he’d met three times already with officials from U. S. State Department who back his initiative but declined giving names , leading State Department refusing comment.
Early polls indicate separatists likely face defeat yet referendum opens doors risks involving foreign meddling according Adam Gordon who once served legal advisor within Foreign Affairs department. They laid out scenario involving grey MAGA funds coupled disinformation campaigns aiding separatist movements or raising doubts should independence efforts fail. They believe Canadians ought consider implications if after Alberta vote U. S. deployed troops northern Montana.
Although currently Trump’s attention lies elsewhere , it’ll eventually return back towards Canadian matters. Scheduled reviews now underway reviewing existing trade agreement signed during first term : US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which holds possibility becoming platform airing grievances Washington harbors against Ottawa-small military presence northward among others plus approach taken agriculture sectors-and opportunity utilize maximum leverage through negotiations across smaller trading partners.
Current deal allows around eighty-five percent free tariff status facilitating trade between both nations spared from tariffs imposed versus various goods imported otherwise facing thirty-five percent taxes placed by Trump during prior terms ; however such privilege acts double-edged sword given any threat cancelation risks disrupting entire economic systems.
Businesses overwhelmingly assert terminating existing agreements would adversely affect American economy directly short-term devastation inflicted upon Canadians reliant sending nearly seventy percent exports southwards via borders.
To reduce dependency established public goal declared October aiming double export figures across next decade whilst fostering brisk diplomatic engagements despite labeling China biggest security threat previously this April marked upcoming visit planned soon becoming first time leader visiting Asia since nearly decade amid chillier relations developed lately.
Since assuming prime ministership role lately he focused improving ties rebuilding rapport damaged under previous leadership removing some countermeasures initiated earlier response tariffs imposed removing digital services tax payments ; moreover increased defense budgets address key complaints voiced regarding contributions made by NATO associates recently brought forth repeatedly throughout discussions held during negotiations underway presently over differing agendas linked closely together moving ahead accordingly ultimately maintaining favorability overall future outlook generally prevailing aspects operating jointly continuously formed alliance building blocks strong foundations leading viable outcomes benefitting mutual interests thereby strengthening partnerships collaboratively working together effectively…
None concessions offered led detente ongoing tariff disputes they entail risk steady erosion sovereignty presently affecting overall situation discussed thoroughly encountered challenges posing serious dilemmas entering uncertain territories triggering concerns repercussions potentially occurring later down line implications posing significant dilemmas resulting ramifications foreseen arising way forward navigating intricacies involved maintaining autonomy preserving rights inherent amidst evolving environments facing uncertainties constantly reshaping landscapes perpetually influencing dynamics shaping future realities impacting strategies devised responding adequately respective situations arising effectively targeting solutions focusing goals intended achieving sustainable growth fortifying stability securing resilience ensuring enduring viability prosperity fostering success collectively approaching obstacles presenting themselves requiring innovative approaches adapting changing contexts effectively maneuvering progressing through complexities navigating terrain marked unpredictability establishing pathways conducive advancement nurturing development thriving..
“ Are we merely vassal states incapable admitting truth recognizing underlying realities faced contemporary existence? ” Lagassé remarked expressing worries increasingly emerging concerning nature concessions granted striving maintain access preventing further threats eventually evolving context wherein offering compromises lead relinquishing fundamental principles governing conduct interactions fostering equality coexistence striving ensure collective integrity exists safeguarding shared futures sustainably…
-With assistance coming from Danielle Bochove Josh Wingrove Mario Baker Ramirez contributing viewpoints enhancing discourse advancing understanding comprehensive perspectives enlightening narratives intersecting complex issues confronting societies encountering challenges traversed navigating intricacies shaping ongoing dialogues engendering meaningful conversations promoting engagement encouraging collaboration facilitating connections bridging gaps fostering unity.
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Then there’s also concern surrounding potential U. S. interference within Canadian politics.
Alberta , rich due it’s oil resources , has long felt constrained under Ottawa ‘s control. It appears headed towards holding independence referendum , where certain supporters known as ” Maple MAGAs ” dream not only about leaving Canada but possibly joining USA. A separatist organizer named Jeffrey Rath shared he’d met three times already with officials from U. S. State Department who back his initiative but declined giving names , leading State Department refusing comment.
Early polls indicate separatists likely face defeat yet referendum opens doors risks involving foreign meddling according Adam Gordon who once served legal advisor within Foreign Affairs department. They laid out scenario involving grey MAGA funds coupled disinformation campaigns aiding separatist movements or raising doubts should independence efforts fail. They believe Canadians ought consider implications if after Alberta vote U. S. deployed troops northern Montana.
Although currently Trump’s attention lies elsewhere , it’ll eventually return back towards Canadian matters. Scheduled reviews now underway reviewing existing trade agreement signed during first term : US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which holds possibility becoming platform airing grievances Washington harbors against Ottawa-small military presence northward among others plus approach taken agriculture sectors-and opportunity utilize maximum leverage through negotiations across smaller trading partners.
Current deal allows around eighty-five percent free tariff status facilitating trade between both nations spared from tariffs imposed versus various goods imported otherwise facing thirty-five percent taxes placed by Trump during prior terms ; however such privilege acts double-edged sword given any threat cancelation risks disrupting entire economic systems.Businesses overwhelmingly assert terminating existing agreements would adversely affect American economy directly short-term devastation inflicted upon Canadians reliant sending nearly seventy percent exports southwards via borders.
To reduce dependency established public goal declared October aiming double export figures across next decade whilst fostering brisk diplomatic engagements despite labeling China biggest security threat previously this April marked upcoming visit planned soon becoming first time leader visiting Asia since nearly decade amid chillier relations developed lately.
Since assuming prime ministership role lately he focused improving ties rebuilding rapport damaged under previous leadership removing some countermeasures initiated earlier response tariffs imposed removing digital services tax payments ; moreover increased defense budgets address key complaints voiced regarding contributions made by NATO associates recently brought forth repeatedly throughout discussions held during negotiations underway presently over differing agendas linked closely together moving ahead accordingly ultimately maintaining favorability overall future outlook generally prevailing aspects operating jointly continuously formed alliance building blocks strong foundations leading viable outcomes benefitting mutual interests thereby strengthening partnerships collaboratively working together effectively…
None concessions offered led detente ongoing tariff disputes they entail risk steady erosion sovereignty presently affecting overall situation discussed thoroughly encountered challenges posing serious dilemmas entering uncertain territories triggering concerns repercussions potentially occurring later down line implications posing significant dilemmas resulting ramifications foreseen arising way forward navigating intricacies involved maintaining autonomy preserving rights inherent amidst evolving environments facing uncertainties constantly reshaping landscapes perpetually influencing dynamics shaping future realities impacting strategies devised responding adequately respective situations arising effectively targeting solutions focusing goals intended achieving sustainable growth fortifying stability securing resilience ensuring enduring viability prosperity fostering success collectively approaching obstacles presenting themselves requiring innovative approaches adapting changing contexts effectively maneuvering progressing through complexities navigating terrain marked unpredictability establishing pathways conducive advancement nurturing development thriving..
“ Are we merely vassal states incapable admitting truth recognizing underlying realities faced contemporary existence? ” Lagassé remarked expressing worries increasingly emerging concerning nature concessions granted striving maintain access preventing further threats eventually evolving context wherein offering compromises lead relinquishing fundamental principles governing conduct interactions fostering equality coexistence striving ensure collective integrity exists safeguarding shared futures sustainably…
-With assistance coming from Danielle Bochove Josh Wingrove Mario Baker Ramirez contributing viewpoints enhancing discourse advancing understanding comprehensive perspectives enlightening narratives intersecting complex issues confronting societies encountering challenges traversed navigating intricacies shaping ongoing dialogues engendering meaningful conversations promoting engagement encouraging collaboration facilitating connections bridging gaps fostering unity.
Source link
