Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are closing out 2024 hitting a brand new long-term excessive in poll assist, with a 26 level benefit over the Liberals amid requires Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to resign.
In keeping with Nanos Analysis’s newest weekly poll monitoring, the federal Conservatives presently maintain 47 per cent of assist, over the Liberals’ 21 per cent. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP aren’t far behind, sitting at 17 per cent assist.
“What it means is, going into 2025, the largest winner is Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, and the largest losers are each Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh, as a result of each the numbers for them and their events are down within the shut of 2024,” stated Nik Nanos, chief knowledge scientist at Nanos Analysis.
This comes because the nation waits to learn the way Trudeau will reply to requires him to step down or name an election in early 2025.
After a rocky fall sitting resulted in chaos with the shock resignation of Chrystia Freeland, Singh stated his occasion was prepared to tug its assist for the Liberal minority authorities within the new yr. Poilievre is pushing for that non-confidence vote to occur as quickly as Parliament resumes.
Over the vacations, calls got here from the Ontario and Atlantic caucuses for Trudeau to resign, and now it seems the Quebec caucus has reached that consensus as properly. Nanos stated the turmoil throughout the Liberal occasion is “undoubtedly” having an affect on Canadians.
Nanos monitoring additionally has Poilievre has the popular alternative for prime minister amongst 40 per cent of Canadians surveyed, adopted by Trudeau at 17.4 per cent and Singh at 13.9 per cent. One other 18 per cent of voters stated they have been not sure who they most well-liked.
Requested if he thinks there’s nonetheless room for the Liberals to show issues round within the upcoming election yr, Nanos stated the occasion may enhance its standings, however “to beat the Conservatives is a totally totally different sport.”
“They’d realistically have to have Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives make some kind of huge mistake, as a result of proper now the election is for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives to lose,” Nanos stated. “The Liberals are battling not simply internally, they’re battling time for a change, which is an enormous power proper now being led by Pierre Poilievre.”
Nanos’ newest numbers point out jobs and the economic system shall be a key space for all events to focus in on in 2025. He is says the proportion of Canadians anxious about these matters has “dramatically elevated,” within the final month, hitting a four-year excessive.
“Canadians need to hear from all of the federal occasion leaders what their place is on prosperity, on the place jobs are going to come back from, and this within the context of Donald Trump, president-elect Trump, coming into workplace on January the twentieth and the tariffs that will or could not come into impact,” Nanos stated.
“Canadians principally need to have solutions on not simply how we’ll handle Donald Trump and take care of that relationship, but in addition what our technique is as a rustic to create jobs and to make our economic system stronger.”
Methodology
1,014 random interviews recruited by RDD (land- and cell-lines) random phone survey of 1,014 Canadians age 18 years and over, ending December 27, 2024. This knowledge is predicated on a four-week rolling common the place every week the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a brand new group of 250 is added. A random phone survey of 1,014 Canadians is correct 3.1 share factors, plus or minus, 19 occasions out of 20.
