Picture: Marc-Olivier Jodoin on Unsplash
November in Canada is all the time a difficult time for retaining spirits up. The times rapidly develop shorter and colder. The rites of autumn contain placing away summer time issues, closing up gardens, and digging out winter gear, understanding it is going to be a very long time earlier than heat and greenery return.
This yr most Canadians felt an additional psychological blow once they noticed that Donald Trump gained the American election in any case. Sure, he has some admirers and apologists right here, however most public and “elite” opinion both leans to an affinity with the Democrats or just has bother entering into the mindset of the 75 million People who noticed this man as match for his or her highest workplace.
The result is stirring worries that transcend what Trump might do to America to what the longer term holds for the world. Democracy and pluralism appear to be in serious trouble. Canada has a very shut connection to Ukraine and promised assist “for as long as it takes”. There have been different troubling developments which have rattled Canada’s self-confidence. Canadian society has been roiled this yr by the battle within the Center East and extra not too long ago by an outbreak of tensions between totally different parts of the massive Indian diaspora. Our personal mannequin of multiculturalism is being careworn by these worldwide currents and by concern that immigration ranges soared to untenable ranges over the previous few years. Canadians have been pessimistic in regards to the state of their very own nation and the world since about 2022. Final week gained’t have helped.
Upcoming webinar | 19 November: US election: how federal authorities is preparing for the brand new president
Existential relationship
It’s troublesome to convey to others how existential for Canada the connection with our southern neighbours is. It issues way more to us than to them. There are huge flows of products, companies and travellers throughout the border. Successive governments of all stripes have dedicated huge effort to managing the numerous aspects of our interplay: commerce and funding, defence and safety, power, air and water air pollution, migration and border controls, labour markets, cooperation in worldwide geopolitics, and far more.
Accordingly, an excellent slice of the Canadian public service, each federal and provincial, thinks about and works on points immediately tied to the Canada-US relationship. It will likely be struggling to assist our political leaders regulate to the outcomes of the American election, making an attempt to attract on experiences from the primary Trump mandate but in addition to evaluate what’s new and what could also be a extra enduring shift in how the People assume and act.
For a lot of public servants, they may first need to put aside a private dismay and placed on their finest skilled recreation face, making an attempt to be clear-eyed in regards to the challenges, the home windows of alternative which will come up, and above all how finest to defend Canadian pursuits and values.
Our flesh pressers shall be doing their very own assessments, on the lookout for nuggets of knowledge within the avalanche of post-election op-eds, educational and professional commentary, and paid marketing consultant recommendation. How a lot of what occurred to the south of us is transferable to how finest to struggle a Canadian election that’s months away?
Learn extra: Subsequent steps for presidency transformation: Canada’s digital leaders concern a name to motion
Canada’s election
It’s a bit early to make assured predictions about how Canadians will now understand their upcoming selections. Will the change of presidency in Washington shake up what has appeared to be an inexorable slide towards a change of presidency in Canada? For now, the more than likely end result in Canada remains to be a smashing victory for the opposition Conservatives, who would return to energy in 2025 after a decade away. Whether or not so as to add the adjective “centre-right” or “populist” as a prefix is a query price debating.
A dwindling band of supporters see an opportunity for prime minister Trudeau to return again from an enormous deficit in polling as the only option within the new context. Different Liberals who a couple of weeks in the past had been on the lookout for hope in pushing for a change of chief had been doubtless greatly surprised by the failure of Kamala Harris to outpoll Joe Biden. Conservatives would take coronary heart from the wave of anti-incumbent nationwide elections in 2024 and be assured their flip is coming.
For the federal public service, home politics is one other supply of foreboding. The older cohorts have been by way of adjustments of presidency earlier than, and are extra sanguine, however a surge of post-pandemic hiring signifies that a big share of public servants are new. The brand new cohorts and most of the new managers look like anxious. Partly it is because the Conservatives have mentioned little of substance about their coverage intentions so there isn’t lots to latch onto and put together for. For instance, we all know they may repeal the federal carbon tax however not a lot about what, if something, they may do about local weather change as an alternative. The times of lengthy occasion manifestos appear lengthy gone.
However principally the foreboding across the public service, particularly within the capital the place about 40% of it lives and works, is as a result of it’s generally anticipated that the occasion’s slogan “fix the budget” means deep cuts to programmes and personnel as quickly as the primary Price range – a lot deeper cuts than the tepid efforts of the present authorities. The factor is, there are only a few clues about the place the cuts will fall, so everybody can really feel nervous. Youthful staff will bear the brunt of downsizing until the algorithms change.
Learn extra: How Canada is utilizing knowledge to show good intentions into local weather motion
Adapt and serve
I mentioned in my final letter that it’s time for a deep pruning of the federal state in Canada. I firmly consider it’s doable to take action and obtain beneficial properties in public sector productiveness and effectiveness that can assist rebuild confidence from voters and taxpayers. However whether or not we take that path, or repeat previous errors that broken long-term capabilities, is way from sure.
Readability will emerge quickly sufficient, whether or not it’s Trump’s opening strikes, or the election right here in Canada. The general public sector will do what’s all the time has performed, adapt and serve. For now the shortening days and dropping temperatures are a time for reflection and evaluation, and as we do right here at the moment yearly, hunkering down and on the point of make one of the best of it.
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