A senior U. S. military commander recently brushed off a journalist’s hypothetical question about a feared American invasion of Canada as “absolutely and utterly preposterous.”
The head of U. S. Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, added: “Would you ask me please, also, what my attack plans are for the Martians?”
However, it seems this isn’t such an outlandish idea for Prime Minister Mark Carney or his senior defense officials, who have reviewed various long-standing – in some cases decades-old – contingency plans and worst-case scenarios.
In an interview with the New York Times on Wednesday, Carney mentioned he had prepared for the “extreme tail risk” that the Trump administration might order military action against Canada.
That’s his way of saying there’s a really, really low chance of this happening, but the risk isn’t zero.
The Times reported that when pressed on whether he took U. S. President Donald Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st state seriously, Carney “suggested that he had carefully examined the possibility of a U. S.-led military invasion,” but declined to elaborate on what that involved.
“All militaries in the world spend time analyzing risk scenarios,” Defense Minister David Mc Guinty said Thursday. “Canadians should take it as described to the prime minister: a tail risk.”
Mc Guinty also refused to discuss specifics regarding contingency planning.
WATCH | Nothing unusual in military analyzing risk scenarios, defense minister says:
Defense minister says preparations for possible U. S.-led military action are ‘normal’
Asked by if the Canadian military is revisiting plans for potential U. S.-led military action, Defense Minister David Mc Guinty stated ‘all militaries in the world spend time analyzing risk scenarios.’ The New York Times reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney said he has studied the possibility, which he referred to as ‘extreme tail risk.’
Vault full of contingency plans
While many envision “American military action” as heavily armored tanks and jets charging across the Canadian border, most experts agree such a scenario is unlikely given Canada’s vastness and difficulty in securing the entire country.
It’s generally accepted that in a conventional conflict, the Canadian military would be quickly overpowered and resistance would likely take on guerilla tactics.
There are several other possible scenarios as well. These could range from rapid regime change like when former Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro was captured by U. S. commandos to limited air campaigns like those seen over Iran.
The Department of National Defence has a vault full of contingency plans – some dating back decades – just like militaries around the globe do.
Retired Lt.-Gen. Andrew Leslie led the team at Defence Department responsible for writing and updating these plans.
He mentioned they are revised based on global circumstances often triggered by new leadership changes in countries where Canada has interests.
“You make judgment calls on what is likely to happen, what is unlikely to happen,” Leslie said in an interview with .
“You consult with other departments and experts before putting it away again.”
‘Heightened focus’ in light of Trump’s threats
The planning process would’ve been updated after Trump’s re-election in 2024 and pulled out regularly especially due to Trump’s January threats regarding Greenland being seized by force.
“In light of threats issued by the White House against Canada… those probably resulted in increased attention,” Leslie said referring to discussions about making Canada a 51st state along with maps depicting Canada integrated into America.
A year ago, Trump dismissed any thoughts of military action against Canada stating he’d rather use economic pressure instead to draw them into Union.
Given all that’s been discussed so far, it would have been reasonable for Carney to call for revisions on defense strategies according to Leslie.
