December 15, 2024
As we shut the e book on 2024, it’s been a yr marked by uncertainty, shifting priorities, and evolving political loyalties throughout Canada. Over the previous twelve months, our agency has constantly discovered Canadians grappling with financial anxieties, recalibrating their political preferences, and rethinking what good governance appears like in an period more and more outlined by unpredictability and permacrisis. Whereas opinion polls provide solely snapshots in time, the image that emerges from our yr’s value of analysis is certainly one of a public turning into extra cautious, extra important, and—regardless of all of it—nonetheless hopeful that higher days lie forward.
For a lot of the yr, the financial system has been top-of-mind. Even because the quick shockwaves of the pandemic receded, new waves of instability rushed in. Inflation, which appeared at instances prefer it may ease off, grew to become caught within the public consciousness, inflicting individuals with a illness I termed “inflationitis”.
It’s not simply the value of groceries or housing that worries Canadians—it’s the broader concern that one thing basic has shifted in our financial panorama. Many sense that the previous assumption—that issues naturally get simpler and extra reasonably priced over time—now not holds. In consequence, a shortage mindset has begun to creep into public opinion.
All through 2024, our surveys captured a rising perception amongst Canadians that prosperity can’t be taken without any consideration. Rising unemployment late within the yr added to those fears. Whereas jobless charges haven’t skyrocketed, the development line has been worrying sufficient to feed narratives of diminished alternative. Even those that stay securely employed have grown extra skeptical that steady, well-paying work will all the time be there for them or for his or her youngsters. This sense of precarity has clearly influenced how individuals take into consideration politics and coverage.
Within the midst of those swirling anxieties, the Canadian healthcare system can also be edging towards what I just lately wrote about being a “double demographic whammy.” On one facet, an growing old inhabitants is driving up demand for well being and long-term care; on the opposite, a shrinking provide of household physicians and different healthcare professionals threatens to restrict entry on the actual second it’s wanted most. Current Abacus Information surveys present healthcare rating close to the highest of Canadians’ considerations—on par with housing and affordability—and dissatisfaction is operating excessive. Near four-in-ten fee their provincial programs as “poor,” a judgment particularly extreme in areas like Atlantic Canada and Quebec. This demographic collision will doubtless make healthcare shortage a defining political subject for older Canadians over the following 5 to 10 years, a lot as housing affordability has formed the political priorities of youthful voters. It’s not simply one other coverage problem: it’s quick turning into a litmus take a look at for presidency competence and a rallying level for advocacy, funding, and the pressing reimagining of how care is delivered to an growing old nation.
With certainly one of our media companions – The Ontario Chronicle – we’re the one polling agency to commonly monitor public opinion because it pertains to Ontario provincial politics. Once we requested Ontarians about their provincial decisions, many expressed satisfaction—or not less than resigned consolation—with the established order. Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs constantly lead by broad margins, buoyed by a sense that they not less than provided some stability amid chaotic instances. However this lead hasn’t been a ringing endorsement of any authorities’s efficiency a lot as a mirrored image of voters’ uncertainty about whether or not different events may do any higher.
As well as, regional disparities stay entrance and centre. In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the place power points and the price of residing have all the time been central, skepticism towards federal insurance policies geared toward curbing emissions and reshaping the financial system have grown extra intense. In the meantime, in Atlantic Canada, affordability and entry to housing have stirred debates about inhabitants progress, immigration, and social assist programs.
In Quebec, cultural and linguistic issues overlay financial considerations, producing a extra advanced net of priorities that generally diverges sharply from the nationwide dialog. All through these areas, public opinion has repeatedly proven a Canada divided by differing social and financial realities, but united by a pervasive feeling of vulnerability.
Additionally looming massive in Canadians’ imaginations is the exterior atmosphere. The re-election (or return) of Donald Trump to the White Home—whereas hypothetical in the beginning of the yr—grew to become a actuality after the U.S. election in November. Canadians have all the time paid consideration to American politics, however this time the sentiment is warier. Trump’s renewed presence south of the border introduces a component of unpredictability into Canada’s largest buying and selling relationship and additional rattles the idea that worldwide cooperation might be simple or enduring. Our polling has proven that Canadians fear about what a extra protectionist, abrasive U.S. stance means for his or her jobs, their safety, and the worldwide order they’ve lengthy taken without any consideration.
On this panorama, Canadians have proven indicators of retreating into pragmatism. There’s a rising inclination to say, “Let’s deal with what we have and hope our leaders keep the ship steady.” However the urge for food for actual options to inflation and affordability challenges is mounting. Throughout age teams—although significantly amongst youthful Canadians who really feel shut out of the housing market and steady profession paths—there’s a want for political leaders to maneuver past Band-Help measures and confront the structural points at play. On the similar time, older Canadians typically assist incremental adjustments, trusting that the tried-and-true strategy may finally steer the nation again to calmer waters.
On the similar time, I stay fascinated by our more and more fragmented info ecosystem and the deep generational divides it creates in how we be taught, talk, and type opinions. Information from our current surveys present that 6 in 10 Canadians beneath 30 verify TikTok each day, whereas about 1 in 20 of these over 60 do the identical. Older Canadians may nonetheless lean on conventional information broadcasts and mainstream information group, whereas youthful audiences flip to fast-moving, algorithmically curated feeds that ship content material at breakneck pace, typically past the attain of legacy shops. This divergence complicates how we interact, talk, and persuade individuals throughout generational strains. It additionally raises tough questions on whether or not we are able to preserve any shared narrative or discover sufficient frequent floor to forge a cohesive nationwide, multi-generational mission. When our info weight loss program varies so drastically by age, the problem isn’t merely about messaging; it’s about rebuilding a civic tradition of shared tales, shared details, and mutual understanding. I’m left questioning – are we even residing in the identical perceived realities anymore?
As we strategy 2025, we’re coming into a interval when these long-simmering considerations may boil over into electoral politics. We all know a federal election is on the horizon—if not formally scheduled, then definitely looming massive within the minds of social gathering strategists. We additionally know that Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador are anticipated to move to the polls. The essential query as we put together for these elections is whether or not any social gathering can break by way of the widespread anxiousness and provide Canadians a convincing roadmap that addresses their quick pocketbook considerations whereas talking to their deeper fears in regards to the future.
In 2025, count on affordability to stay the dominant theme however job safety and healthcare shortage to rise in significance. As our inhabitants progress stalls resulting from adjustments in immigration coverage, the financial affect – on progress, shopper spending, and tax revenues might be stark.
If events proceed to bicker over small coverage variations moderately than current daring methods for revenue safety, housing, and job progress, the general public’s religion in politicians will stay strained. Events that may present empathy for the shortage mindset—with out being defeatist—could stand out. Count on extra nuanced financial messaging, acknowledging that authorities alone can’t resolve all issues, however that cautious planning and modern pondering can produce outcomes that markets left to themselves could not. Canadians might be wanting not only for ideological alignment, however for competence and stability.
As unemployment hovers at uncomfortable ranges, leaders who promise concrete job creation plans—particularly in rising sectors like infrastructure, healthcare, clear expertise, and manufacturing—may discover a receptive viewers. In the meantime, the specter of Trump’s White Home ought to immediate federal events to make clear how they’ll defend Canadian pursuits in unsure instances. Those that can clarify how Canada will preserve its independence and prosperity, regardless of challenges from its largest buying and selling accomplice, will acquire credibility.
Lastly, look ahead to evolving voter alignments. Youth, particularly younger males, appear to be flirting with conservative political leaders for the primary time in over a decade and a half in Canada, however may additionally lean towards pragmatists in the event that they see their financial future slipping away. Longtime partisans is perhaps extra prepared to think about crossing partisan strains in the event that they really feel a candidate or social gathering can ship tangible outcomes. The desk is ready for an enchanting electoral cycle the place change and coverage disruption is prone to be the end result.
Briefly, whereas 2024’s finish finds Canadians uneasy, cautious, and at instances jaded, it additionally reveals a political market ripe for boldness and reassurance. As we step into 2025, the chance is there for leaders – political, enterprise, neighborhood, and non-profit – to channel these advanced feelings into insurance policies, objectives, missions, and proposals that deal with the price of residing, stabilize employment, and chart a transparent path by way of a sophisticated world atmosphere—one formed each by Canada’s personal inner debates and by the reverberations from past its borders.
Group Abacus Information might be watching carefully, asking hundreds of Canadians lots of of questions each week to maintain you, our great neighborhood, engaged, knowledgeable, and able to fill the unmet wants of your audiences.
Joyful Holidays and Joyful New Yr from all the Abacus Information crew
David Coletto
Founder, Chair, & CEO
Abacus Information
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