December 8, 2024
From November 29 to December 4, 2024, Abacus Knowledge carried out a nationwide survey of two,720 Canadian adults exploring a number of matters associated to Canadian politics and present occasions as a part of our common nationwide omnibus surveys.
On this version, we ask our typical trackers together with an replace of our prime problem tracker.
Vote Intention: Nonetheless No Trump Bump or a “GST Holiday” Bump. Conservatives forward by 23.
If an election have been held in the present day, 44% of dedicated voters would vote Conservative, whereas 21% would vote for the Liberals, and 21% for the NDP. The BQ has 32% of the vote in Quebec. All the motion from the final survey is inside the margin of error.
Regionally, the Conservatives proceed to steer throughout all areas and provinces apart from in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, 42 in Alberta, 21 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 24 in Ontario, and by 19 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is forward of the Conservatives by 5 with the Liberals trailing 4 factors behind them in third.
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Exterior of Quebec, the NDP continues to be barely forward of the Liberals (23% to 21%) with 49% voting Conservative.
Demographically, the Conservatives proceed to steer amongst all age teams and amongst each women and men though their margin amongst youthful continues to be smaller than older cohorts.
48% of males would vote Conservative in contrast with 41% of ladies.
Now we have additionally seen a decline within the general temper of the nation. At present, solely 22% of Canadians really feel the nation is headed in the best course, a 5-point drop from early November and the bottom now we have measured because the starting of 2023. Additionally of word, in the present day, extra Canadians assume the US is headed in the best course (23%) than really feel the identical about their very own nation (22%) – the primary time now we have ever seen these two measures cross.
The federal authorities’s approval score has not modified a lot.
At present, 24% of Canadians approve of the job efficiency of the federal authorities (down 1) whereas disapproval is regular at 61%.
The will for change stays broad and deep. 53% of Canadians need a change in authorities and imagine there’s a great various in contrast with 14% who assume Justin Trudeau and the Liberals need to be re-elected.
At present, 23% (unchanged) have a optimistic view of the Prime Minister, whereas 61% (unchanged) have a detrimental impression of the Prime Minister, for a internet rating of -38.
And we additionally discover that NDP Chief Jagmeet Singh’s negatives stay larger than they’ve traditionally been however the optimistic pattern in his favourables has stopped. At present 31% have a optimistic impression of the NDP chief in contrast with 39% with a detrimental view for a internet rating of -8.
Views of Pierre Poilievre stay blended. 41% have a optimistic view (up 1) whereas 36% have a detrimental view (down 1) for a internet rating of +5. Trump’s election has had no affect on views in direction of Pierre Poilievre.
We’re additionally monitoring Canadian impressions of Donald Trump. And because the tariff announcement final week, optimistic impressions of Trump have elevated. These with a detrimental impression are down 7 from two weeks in the past whereas these with a optimistic view are up 6 to 26%, the very best now we have measured since we began monitoring in September.
One of many questions we are sometimes requested is whether or not there may be danger for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in showing too near Donald Trump. The chart under reveals simply how a lot danger there may be. Regardless of being barely extra in style than Justin Trudeau, Donald Trump continues to be deeply unpopular in Canada. And amongst these with a optimistic impression of Pierre Poilievre (41% of Canadians), about half have a optimistic impression of Trump whereas 1 in 3 have a detrimental impression. An enormous a part of the brand new Poilievre universe doesn’t just like the incoming American President.
Prime Points
For the primary time in our problem monitoring, we included Donald Trump and his administration as a possible problem for Canadians to price as one in all their prime 3. After we embrace him within the combine, 1 in 5 Canadians price him and his administration as a prime problem.
The price of residing, healthcare, and housing are nonetheless the highest three most cited points adopted by the economic system in fourth and immigration in fifth. 1 in 3 Canadians now price immigration as one in all their prime points, a 5-point enhance from June.
Onlu 18% of Canadians price local weather change and the setting as a prime problem, down 5 factors since June.
Wanting on the problem set by age, we discover that the price of residing cross all agre teams whereas healthcare is extra prone to be salient for these aged 60 and over and housing is extra of a difficulty for these beneath 30. Canadians beneath 30 are most definitely to price immigration as a prime problem whereas these over 60 are extra involved about Trump and his new administration. Additionally price noting that Canadians over 60 usually tend to price local weather change as a prime problem than every other age cohort.
Right here’s the breakdown by area/province:
And right here’s the breakdown by present federal get together help. Word, the huge partisan divides on healthcare, immigration, local weather, crime, and Donald Trump.
Now, after we observe up with those that choose a difficulty of their prime three and ask which get together they assume is greatest in a position to deal with that problem, the outcomes underscore how difficult an setting that is for any get together apart from the Conservatives.
On the six most salient points in the intervening time, the Conservatives both lead or are aggressive with one other get together. They lead by 24 on affordability, by 2 on healthcare, by 12 on housing, and by 36 on the economic system. They’re 49 factors forward on immigration, and are inside 5 factors of the Liberals amongst those that say Trump and his administration is likely one of the prime points going through the nation. Additionally they lead by 49 on crime and public security.
If voters often vote for the get together they assume is greatest in a position to deal with the problem they care most about, then the Conservatives are in as stable a place to win the following election as you may think about.
The Upshot
In keeping with Abacus Knowledge CEO David Coletto: “Since early November, we’ve skilled a number of massive political occasions. Trump’s election victory, the federal authorities’s GST tax vacation announcement, and Trump’s 25% tariff social media submit. And it seems none of these occasions have materially modified public opinion.
The Liberals proceed to path the Conservatives by over 20 factors. We’ve seen no change in how individuals really feel concerning the Prime Minister or the efficiency of the federal government. The temper of the nation has soured a bit – to the bottom degree now we have ever measured – and now extra Canadians imagine the US is headed in the best course (23%) than do assume that about Canada (22%).
To date, the affect of Trump on Canadian political opinion has been restricted. However that doesn’t imply he doesn’t current each alternatives and threats for all leaders and events. As we confirmed on this ballot, Pierre Poilievre doubtless has essentially the most danger round Trump as his coalition has very completely different views of the incoming U.S. President.”
Methodology
The survey was carried out with 2,720 Canadian adults from November 29 to December 4, 2024. A random pattern of panelists have been invited to finish the survey from a set of accomplice panels primarily based on the Lucid alternate platform. These companions are sometimes double opt-in survey panels, blended to handle out potential skews within the knowledge from a single supply.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random pattern of the identical dimension is +/- 1.9%, 19 occasions out of 20.
The info have been weighted in response to census knowledge to make sure that the pattern matched Canada’s inhabitants in response to age, gender, instructional attainment, and area. Totals might not add as much as 100 as a result of rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Knowledge Inc.
Abacus Knowledge follows the CRIC Public Opinion Analysis Requirements and Disclosure Necessities that may be discovered right here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/requirements/
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