January 19, 2025
Our newest ballot monitoring opinions about Canadian politics was performed from January 9 to 14, 2025 and interviewed 1,500 Canadian adults.
Vote Intention: Conservatives Keep a Robust Lead
If an election have been held right now, 46% of dedicated voters would solid a poll for the Conservatives, 20% would vote Liberal, and 19% would assist the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 8% nationally, whereas the Greens are at 4% and the Individuals’s Celebration at 3%, with no measurable assist going to different events.
In comparison with our final replace (January 9), the Conservative vote share has dipped by 1 level, whereas Liberal assist stays unchanged. The NDP has edged up by 1 level, and the Greens have additionally inched upward by 1 level. Regardless of the slight decline, the Conservatives proceed to carry a considerable lead—26 factors forward of the Liberals.
Amongst these most sure to vote, the Conservative benefit grows: assist for the Conservatives will increase to 49%, the Liberals drop to 18%, and the NDP sits at 20%, reflecting a 3-point enhance for the Conservatives and a 2-point turnout suppression for the Liberals relative to the general dedicated voter pool. BQ assist amongst these seemingly voters reaches 10%, the Greens maintain at 3%, the Individuals’s Celebration stands at 2%, and fewer than 1% point out assist for an additional celebration.
Regionally, the Conservatives lead in each area or province aside from Quebec the place the BQ is properly forward of the Conservatives in second and the Liberals in third. In Ontario, 50% of adults in that province would vote Conservative, with the Liberals at 23% and the NDP at 18%.
The Conservatives maintain a transparent lead amongst all age teams, although the degree of that lead varies. Amongst youthful Canadians aged 18 to 29, 43% would vote Conservative, 21% Liberal, and 22% NDP, with smaller shares for the Greens (6%), Bloc Québécois (4%), and Individuals’s Celebration (4%).
Canadians aged 30 to 44 additionally tilt in direction of the Conservatives at 46%, adopted by the Liberals (21%) and NDP (21%). Once more, minor events share the rest, with 6% for the BQ, 4% for the Greens, and three% for the Individuals’s Celebration.
For these aged 45 to 59, Conservative assist climbs to 49%, whereas 15% again the Liberals and 22% assist the NDP. The BQ stands at 9%, the Greens at 3%, and the Individuals’s Celebration at 3% on this age group.
Amongst these aged 60 and over, 47% intend to vote Conservative, in contrast with 22% for the Liberals and 13% for the NDP. On this older cohort, 11% would vote BQ, 4% Inexperienced, and a couple of% Individuals’s Celebration. Whereas assist for the Conservatives stays highest amongst Canadians 45 to 59, the celebration maintains a robust lead in all ages bracket.
The Conservatives proceed to guide amongst each women and men, although the dimensions of that lead varies by gender. Amongst males, 51% say they’d vote Conservative, whereas 17% would assist the Liberals, and 16% again the NDP. One other 9% would vote Bloc Québécois, 4% for the Greens, and three% for the Individuals’s Celebration.
Amongst girls, 42% point out they’d vote Conservative, adopted by a tie between the Liberals and the NDP at 23% every. Help for the Bloc Québécois stands at 6% amongst girls, with 4% choosing the Greens and a couple of% for the Individuals’s Celebration.
We additionally see the Conservatives main throughout all ranges of schooling, although the hole narrows amongst these with a college degree. Amongst Canadians with a highschool schooling or much less, 48% would vote Conservative, 18% Liberal, and 15% NDP, with the remaining assist {split} among the many Greens (6%), Bloc Québécois 9%), and Individuals’s Celebration (3%).
These with some school schooling or a school diploma present an analogous Conservative benefit at 48%, with 16% choosing the Liberals and 19% backing the NDP. The BQ garners 10% amongst college-educated voters, whereas the Greens and Individuals’s Celebration every obtain assist from fewer than 5%.
Amongst university-educated Canadians, Conservative assist declines barely to 43%, whereas the Liberals rise to 24% and the NDP to 22%. The Bloc Québécois stands at 4%, and the Greens and Individuals’s Celebration every entice round 3% assist amongst this group.
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Course of the Nation
When requested whether or not they really feel the nation is headed in the proper course or off on the flawed observe, solely 24% of Canadians consider issues are going properly, whereas 64% assume the nation is on the flawed observe. These outcomes stay close to the decrease finish of our historic monitoring, indicating a persistent sense of unease in regards to the nation’s present course. Canadians additionally specific heightened pessimism about international affairs: solely 15% see the world as on course, whereas 73% consider it’s off on the flawed path. Attitudes towards the US mirror this negativity, with 20% feeling the U.S. is transferring in the proper course in comparison with 67% who say it’s on the flawed observe. General, these findings underscore widespread concern each about Canada’s home trajectory and worldwide situations.
Prime Points
When requested to call the three most vital points dealing with Canada right now, the rising value of residing dominates, cited by 67% of respondents. Healthcare stands at 40%, whereas housing affordability and accessibility sits at 38%. The economic system is shut behind at 37%, adopted by immigration at 28%. Notably, 26% point out Donald Trump and his administration, a determine that has continued to rise, whereas solely 15% title local weather change and the setting regardless of current wildfires round Los Angeles. Crime and public security, inequality and poverty, and job safety and unemployment additionally rank within the double digits, whereas considerations about China and Russia, Indigenous reconciliation, and Chinese language election interference stay comparatively low. General, pocketbook points proceed to be essentially the most pressing, reflecting the financial and monetary worries on most Canadians’ minds.
Canadians proceed to carry predominantly destructive views of Justin Trudeau. Solely about one in 5 Canadians (round 20%) say they’ve a constructive impression of him, whereas roughly 64% specific a destructive view. This represents a internet rating of round -44, primarily unchanged from earlier this month. The announcement of his resignation as Liberal chief has carried out little to date to shift individuals’s emotions about him.
Perceptions of Conservative Chief Pierre Poilievre stay divided. Round 41% of Canadians have a constructive impression of him, in comparison with roughly 40% who really feel negatively. Whereas his general picture shouldn’t be as sharply destructive as Trudeau’s, and he’s nonetheless the one federal chief with a internet beneficial ranking of +2.
NDP Chief Jagmeet Singh’s picture has suffered in current weeks. Round 29% maintain a constructive impression, whereas roughly 42% say they’ve a destructive view, giving him a internet rating of about -13. This marks the best degree of unfavourability recorded for Singh in our monitoring, reflecting a gradual erosion of his as soon as extra balanced model.
In the meantime, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump stay decisively destructive. Six in 10 have a destructive opinion of him, whereas 21% view him positively. With Trump set to imagine the U.S. presidency once more, these numbers underscore a continued wariness amongst Canadians towards his political model and agenda and a drop in positivity during the last a number of weeks.
Celebration Greatest Capable of Deal with Prime 3 Points
When requested which celebration is finest in a position to deal with every of the highest points, solely those that chosen the problem amongst their high three considerations have been polled. The Conservatives keep a pronounced benefit on financial and “pocketbook” points.
For example, amongst those that say the economic system is a key concern, 53% consider the Conservatives are finest geared up to sort out it, in comparison with 13% who decide the Liberals and 11% the NDP. On value of residing, 45% consider the Conservatives have one of the best plan, adopted by 16% for the NDP and 13% for the Liberals.
The hole narrows considerably on Donald Trump, the place 32% assume the Conservatives are finest positioned to handle points associated to the incoming U.S. President, whereas 26% select the Liberals and 9% choose the NDP. Though the Conservatives nonetheless lead on the Trump file, the margin is smaller than on different key priorities equivalent to crime and immigration, the place over 60% say they belief the Conservatives greater than every other celebration.
Turning to every celebration’s accessible voter pool, 55% of Canadians would contemplate voting Conservative, the best amongst all events. The NDP’s pool stands at 40%, the Liberals at 38%, and the Greens at 27%. Regionally, the Conservatives do finest in Ontario and British Columbia, every over 55%, whereas in Quebec, solely 34% would contemplate voting Conservative, in comparison with 52% who would contemplate the Bloc Québécois.
Notably, amongst those that voted Liberal in 2021, solely 75% say they’d nonetheless contemplate the celebration now, and amongst present Conservative supporters, just about all (94%) would proceed to think about the Conservatives.
When requested who they consider will win the subsequent election, 62% predict a Conservative victory, up from 61% on January 9 and 50% again in October. Solely 10% assume the Liberals will come out on high, 7% foresee an NDP win, and 20% stay not sure. This gradual however regular climb within the Conservative quantity indicators rising confidence and recognition that the Conservatives will win the subsequent election. This notion has not impacted assist for the celebration.
Lastly, the need for change continues to loom massive over the federal political panorama. Absolutely 88% consider it’s time for change, both as a result of they see an excellent different (52%) or just need to exchange the Liberals regardless of hesitations in regards to the options (36%). Solely 12% assume the Liberals deserve one other time period. Since Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement, his title has been faraway from the re-election query, however the general outcomes have shifted little, indicating negligible impression to date on how Canadians view the Liberals’ electoral prospects.
The Upshot
In response to Abacus Information CEO David Coletto: “The Liberal management race is formally underway, as Chrystia Freeland launches her marketing campaign following Mark Carney’s announcement final Thursday. Whether or not this contest can seize the general public’s consideration and reset the narrative stays to be seen, however we can be monitoring intently how any management momentum may have an effect on voter perceptions.
In the meantime, Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday is drawing vital focus, with Canadians involved about whether or not he’ll observe via on the tariff threats which have loomed over cross-border relations.
For now, the Conservatives stay within the driver’s seat, outpacing each different celebration in most demographic teams and throughout each area exterior Quebec. Because the management race unfolds and the Trump presidency begins, the important thing questions for the Liberals and different events revolve round whether or not they can reshape the political panorama—and win again voters presently leaning so strongly towards the Conservatives.”
Methodology
The survey was performed with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 9 to January 14, 2025, 2025.
A random pattern of panelists have been invited to finish the survey from a set of associate panels primarily based on the Lucid change platform. These companions are usually double opt-in survey panels, blended to handle out potential skews within the knowledge from a single supply.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random pattern of the identical measurement is +/- 2.3%, 19 occasions out of 20.
The survey was weighted in line with census knowledge to make sure that the pattern matched Canada’s inhabitants in line with age, gender, academic attainment, and area. Totals might not add as much as 100 because of rounding. This survey was paid for by Abacus Information Inc.
Abacus Information follows the CRIC Public Opinion Analysis Requirements and Disclosure Necessities that may be discovered right here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/requirements/
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