November 13, 2024
However first, a message from Abacus Knowledge founder and CEO, David Coletto:
We love elections at Abacus Knowledge. Exploring what folks assume and really feel and the way that impacts their behaviours at work, as customers, and as residents is on the core of what we do.
And so, with lower than two weeks to go till Election Day in Nova Scotia, we’re excited to share the outcomes from our second provincial election survey with you and begin exploring how voter preferences and opinions are altering over time.
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Now to the survey outcomes.
The outcomes point out that the Nova Scotia PC Celebration and Premier Tim Houston have elevated their lead over the opposition events with the marketing campaign having but to basically shift preferences or opinions in regards to the political decisions in Nova Scotia.
Listed below are the important thing takeaways from our second survey of the marketing campaign:
The Points
Fixing healthcare, affordability and housing stay the highest three points more likely to influence the best way Nova Scotians vote on election day, however the salience of these points has dropped a bit since our first survey, with different points like chopping taxes staying the identical and inhabitants progress showing to gathering steam.
Since our first NS election survey, healthcare as a high difficulty is down 5 factors, affordability is down 3 factors, and housing is down 3 factors.
Slicing taxes finishes fourth once more, with no change for the reason that first survey.
And inhabitants progress is up 3 factors, rising the economic system is up 2 factors, and preventing local weather change is up 6 factors.
When voters who determine healthcare, affordability, housing and/or lowering taxes as their high points are requested which celebration they assume will likely be greatest capable of deal with these points, the PCs end first on three of the 4 high points. They lead the Liberals and NDP by 15-points on “fixing healthcare”, lead the NDP by 10-points on “making life more affordable”, and lead the Liberals by 12-points on “reducing taxes”.
Solely on “improving housing and reducing homelessness” do the PCs barely path the NDP (28% to 25%).
The PCs additionally lead amongst individuals who determine “growing the economy and creating good jobs,” “managing population growth”, and “improving roads” as their high points.
And the PCs are in fourth place on the celebration Nova Scotians who fee local weather change and the setting as a high difficulty (the Greens lead on that difficulty).
The Leaders
Our second election survey additionally confirms that Tim Houston is well-known to voters. 73% of eligible voters at the moment really feel they’ve an excellent or fairly good thought who the incumbent Premier is and what he stands for, remaining excessive total and excessive in most segments.
Familiarity with Liberal Chief Zach Churchill and NDP Chief Claudia Chender has improved a bit bit for the reason that first week of the election, however stays a lot decrease than it’s for Tim Houston.
Whereas the identical proportion (48%) of voters have no less than a fairly good thought of who Zach Churchill is (unchanged from the beginning of the marketing campaign), there was a 5-point lower in those that say they don’t know a lot about him in any respect (26% to 21%).
For NDP Chief Claudia Chender, we see an analogous change. Familiarity with Claudia Chender as an individual and a pacesetter is similar because it was initially of the marketing campaign (36% vs. 37%), however the proportion of those that don’t know her in any respect is down 5-points (28% to 23%).
Once we ask Nova Scotians about their impressions of the celebration leaders, Tim Houston continues to be considered positively by 37% of eligible voters (solely down 1 level since our first survey) and negatively by 29% (down 5) for a internet rating of +8, representing an enchancment for the reason that begin of the marketing campaign.
Compared, Liberal Chief Zach Churchill is +6 (down for the reason that begin) and NDP Chief Claudia Chender is +26 (an enchancment).
This set of outcomes additionally confirms that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are well-liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s internet beneficial is -32 whereas Pierre Poilievre’s is -14 within the province.
HAVE OTHER INDICATORS SHIFTED SINCE THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN?
The need for change has additionally lessened a bit.
In our first Nova Scotia election ballot, 50% of eligible voters instructed us they positively wished to see a change in authorities in Nova Scotia. At the moment, that determine is 46% (down 4 factors). And people who positively need to see the Houston PC authorities re-elected is holding regular at 20%.
That is extra excellent news for the PCs, with these developments in addition to the marginally greater voter intentions, favouring them to win the election.
The need for change in Nova Scotia proper now can be about the identical because it was in British Columbia the place the incumbent NDP just lately eked out a victory.
Even amongst those that positively need to see a change in authorities, 16% of eligible voters in Nova Scotia nonetheless say they plan to vote PC, a rise of 7-points for the reason that begin of the marketing campaign.
And the NDP and Liberals at the moment {split} the-solid-change-vote 30% to 27% for the NDP.
The Undecided
What is way much less clear is which path eligible voters who haven’t made their minds-up but will go.
With lower than two weeks remaining within the provincial election, 22% of all eligible voters in Nova Scotia stay undecided and a big proportion of voters who’re positively wanting a change in authorities stay undecided, representing about 10% of the whole citizens.
If these teams consolidate round one opposition celebration, the PC margin may shrink considerably, lifting that celebration to second place or possibly even higher.
It is usually vital to notice that within the final provincial election, 35% of present strong-change-voters voted Liberal, 14% voted PC, 6% NDP and 35% didn’t vote.
Each election is, nevertheless, totally different and the Liberals and NDP additionally had different leaders in 2021, with Zach Churchill and Claudia Chender main their first provincial campaigns.
Tim Houston leads by 15 on “Best Premier”
Once we ask Nova Scotians which of the celebration leaders they assume would make the most effective Premier, Tim Houston continues to complete far forward of the opposite celebration leaders. 35% choose the present Premier, 20% selected Liberal Chief Zach Churchill, whereas 18% choose NDP Chief Claudia Chender. And 25% are not sure.
And Now, Vote Alternative: PCs lead by 22
All of those metrics result in a bigger PC lead than we measured earlier within the marketing campaign.
If the election was held in the present day, the PCs would possible win a big majority than they gained in 2021. 47% of dedicated Nova Scotians would vote PC (up 2 since our final survey), 25% would vote Liberal (unchanged), whereas 23% would vote NDP (down 3). 4% would vote Inexperienced. 22% say they’re undecided down 3 from our first survey.
Regionally, the PCs and NDP stay statistically tied in Halifax (HRM) whereas the PCs lead by 33 in different elements of the province. The PCs additionally lead in city and rural communities, though their lead in rural Nova Scotia is considerably bigger (30 factors vs. 18 factors).
Demographically, the PCs lead by a large margin amongst these aged 45 and over, lead by a smaller margin amongst these aged 30 to 44, and are statistically tied with the NDP amongst these aged 18 to 29.
The PCs additionally lead amongst women and men with virtually an equal share of the vote throughout each genders.
The Enthusiasm Hole has Closed
Earlier within the marketing campaign, we famous that the PCs had a bonus over the opposite events as a result of their voters appear extra enthusiastic to vote. That “enthusiasm” hole appears to have shrunk.
Among the many 51% of the citizens who inform us that they’re “extremely motivated” to vote, the PCs have a smaller lead than throughout your complete citizens – 45% to 29% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.
At the moment, 60% of Liberal supporters say they’re extraordinarily motivated to vote (up 11) in contrast with 49% of PC supporters (down 16) and 47% of NDP supporters. (down 5)
These motivated Liberal supporters are typically extra feminine (63%), 78% have a post-secondary training, and 76% of them voted for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2021. May this be a Trump-effect in Nova Scotia? We don’t have sufficient proof to validate this concept, but it surely’s one thing we’ll proceed to look at.
Though enthusiasm amongst PC supporters could also be down, they proceed to be firmer of their help than different celebration supporters. 60% of PC supporters say they won’t change their thoughts. They already know they’re voting PC. 53% of Liberal voters and 36% of NDP voters responded the identical approach.
Second Alternative Preferences
Once we ask folks with a vote choice which celebration is their second selection, we discover that 1 in 3 PC supporters say they don’t have a second selection. One other 31% say the NDP is their second selection, and 23% level to the Liberals.
Amongst Liberal supporters, 56% say their second selection is the NDP whereas 30% say the PCs.
For NDP supporters, 45% say the Liberals, 32% say the Greens, whereas 17% say the PCs.
These outcomes make consolidation of the not-PC vote unlikely given the fragmentation of the second-choice preferences amongst NDP and Liberal supporters.
Who do Nova Scotians assume will win the election?
Half of Nova Scotians imagine that the PCs will win the provincial election, a 3 level enhance from our final survey. 16% assume the Liberals will win and solely 6% anticipate an NDP victory.
UPSHOT
Based on Kelly Bennett: “Tim Houston and his PC celebration began the provincial election using excessive within the polls and that benefit continues to develop. The PCs have elevated their dedicated voter numbers by 2 factors within the final week, inching nearer to the 50% mark, whereas the opposite events proceed to battle it out for second place.
If the provincial election was held in the present day, Tim Houston and the PCs would possible win a bigger majority than they did in 2021.
Within the remaining two weeks of the marketing campaign, it is going to be fascinating to see which path undecided voters determine to maneuver in. In the event that they turnout, their selection may shut the hole with the PCs and put one of many primary opposition events forward of the opposite.
With the celebration leaders hitting the controversy stage on November 14th (for a stay, 90-minute debate hosted by CBC), Zach Churchill and Claudia Cheder could have top-of-the-line possibilities they will get to introduce themselves to Nova Scotians later this week.
For them, the stakes appear actually excessive. They should carry out nicely on the controversy stage to win-over as many undecided voters as they’ll, whereas the incumbent Premier solely wants to remain the course, persist with his messages, and never say or do something that can flip his many supporters off.”
Based on David Coletto: “As we go the midway mark of the marketing campaign, the Nova Scotia PCs and Tim Houston stay within the driver’s seat. The need for change isn’t threatening, the Premier is comparatively nicely appreciated, and neither of the opposition events have been capable of consolidate the change vote, no less than up till this level.
Nonetheless, a number of the different issues we’re seeing ought to concern the PC marketing campaign. Enthusiasm amongst PC supporters has dropped a bit bit, maybe as complacency begins to set in. Most voters assume the PCs are going to win the election.
10% of the citizens positively needs a change in authorities, however continues to be undecided about how they are going to vote. If all or most of this group have been to rally round one of many opposition events, that may put a severe dent within the PC lead and no less than decide second place.
If the PCs do win and broaden their vote share from the final election, they’d be one of many only a few incumbent governments within the democratic world to outlive what I name “inflationitis” and enhance their vote share.
Every part thought of, we must always nonetheless anticipate a big Progressive Conservative majority authorities to be elected on November twenty sixth. What’s extra unknown is which celebration will type the official opposition.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was carried out with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from November 7 to 10, 2024. A random pattern of panelists have been invited to finish the survey from a set of accomplice panels based mostly on the Lucid alternate platform. These companions are usually double opt-in survey panels, blended to handle out potential skews within the knowledge from a single supply.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random pattern of the identical dimension is +/- 4.1% 19 instances out of 20.
The information have been weighted based on census knowledge to make sure that the pattern matched Nova Scotia’s inhabitants based on age, gender, instructional attainment, and area. Totals could not add as much as 100 on account of rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Knowledge Inc.
Abacus Knowledge follows the CRIC Public Opinion Analysis Requirements and Disclosure Necessities that may be discovered right here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/requirements/
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