November 10, 2024
From October 31 to November 5, 2024 Abacus Information performed a nationwide survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring a number of matters associated to Canadian politics and present occasions as a part of our common nationwide omnibus surveys.
On this version, we ask our traditional trackers solely.
Vote Intention: Conservatives stay nicely forward, lead by 19 over the Liberals
If an election had been held in the present day, 41% of dedicated voters would vote Conservative, whereas 22% would vote for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 38% of the vote in Quebec. The Conservative vote share is down 3 whereas the NDP and PPC vote shares are up 2 every respectively.
Regionally, the Conservatives proceed to steer throughout all areas and provinces apart from in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, 36 in Alberta, 32 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and by 18 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is forward of the Liberals by 12 with the Conservatives an additional two factors again.
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Exterior of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied nicely again of the Conservatives who’ve virtually half of the vote share.
Demographically, the Conservatives proceed to steer amongst all age teams and amongst each women and men though their margin amongst youthful Canadians has dropped.
The Conservatives lead by a large margin amongst Canadians aged 45 and older, and have a sizeable lead among the many youthful cohorts. The NDP vote share is up in our pattern amongst these aged 30 to 44.
48% of males would vote Conservative in contrast with 40% of ladies – each down 3 since final wave.
The Conservative lead is bigger once more amongst those that say they’re most sure to vote – 44% to 21%. The BQ’s vote share will increase much more in Quebec since its assist is extra concentrated amongst older Quebecers.
The temper of the nation has improved barely with 27% feeling the nation is headed in the correct course whereas 60% really feel it’s off on the unsuitable monitor. We’ll monitor this to see if it’s the beginning of a brand new development of accelerating optimism.
The federal authorities’s approval score has not modified a lot.
At present, 25% of Canadians approve of the job efficiency of the federal authorities (up 1) whereas disapproval is up one (62%).
At present, 23% (unchanged) have a constructive view of the Prime Minister, whereas 61% (up 1) have a unfavorable impression of the Prime Minister, for a internet rating of -38.
And we additionally discover that NDP Chief Jagmeet Singh’s negatives stay greater than they’ve traditionally been. At present 30% have a constructive impression of Mr. Singh whereas 39% have a unfavorable view for a internet rating of -9.
Views of Pierre Poilievre stay combined. 38% have a constructive view (down 3) whereas 38% have a unfavorable view (up 1) for a internet rating of 0.
These anticipating the Conservatives to win the following election holds.
Halfof Canadians now consider the Conservatives are going to win the following federal election. Since january, expectations of a Conservative win have elevated by 7-points. In distinction, 18% suppose the Liberals will win whereas 10% count on an NDP victory. 22% stay uncertain.
The Upshot
In response to Abacus Information CEO David Coletto: “The opinion environment prior to Donald Trump’s election on Tuesday was very similar to what it has been for over a year now. We see no shift in perceptions as Canadians continue to seek political change and the Conservatives continue to benefit the most from this holding onto a clear lead nationally, across most demographics, and across almost all regions of the country.”
Methodology
The survey was performed with 1,915 Canadian adults from October 31 to November 5, 2024. A random pattern of panelists had been invited to finish the survey from a set of associate panels primarily based on the Lucid alternate platform. These companions are sometimes double opt-in survey panels, blended to handle out potential skews within the knowledge from a single supply.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random pattern of the identical measurement is +/- 2.3%, 19 occasions out of 20.
The info had been weighted in response to census knowledge to make sure that the pattern matched Canada’s inhabitants in response to age, gender, instructional attainment, and area. Totals might not add as much as 100 resulting from rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Information Inc.
Abacus Information follows the CRIC Public Opinion Analysis Requirements and Disclosure Necessities that may be discovered right here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/requirements/
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