Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics
November 9, 2024
From October 31 to November 5, 2024, Abacus Information performed a survey of 998 eligible voters in Ontario exploring a number of matters as a part of our common nationwide omnibus surveys.
Each month, with our media companion the Ontario Chronicle, we monitor how Ontarians are feeling about their political decisions and add new matters primarily based on present occasions and discussions. On this version of the survey, we additionally discover how folks really feel in regards to the provincial authorities’s new coverage in direction of bike lanes and the way individuals are reacting to the $200 rebate cheques set to hit mailboxes within the new yr.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 20 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election had been held at present, 42% of dedicated voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 26%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 22%, and the Greens at 7%.
All these adjustments are inside the margin of error of our earlier survey.
Regionally, the Ontario PCs proceed to guide throughout the province. They’re forward by 22 factors within the GTHA, forward by 13 in japanese Ontario, and by 20 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are forward of the Ontario Liberals by 7, though the PC Social gathering’s lead within the metropolis is down 7 factors.
The Ontario PCs proceed to guide throughout demographic teams as properly.
They’re properly forward amongst males (23-point lead), lead by 8 amongst girls, and lead amongst Ontarians aged 30 and over. Amongst these aged 18 to 29, the Liberals and PCs are tied.
The federal government’s approval ranking can also be down barely. In the present day 33% approve of the job efficiency of the provincial authorities (down 3) whereas 43% disapprove (+1).
Doug Ford’s private numbers have deterioriated barely over the previous month.
34% have a optimistic view of Premier Ford (unchanged), whereas destructive views are up barely to 45% (up 3) for a internet rating of -9. Ford’s internet favourability rating is the bottom it’s been since we began monitoring chief favourability in April.
Liberal Social gathering chief Bonnie Crombie has a internet rating of -9 (unchanged) and NDP chief Marit Stiles has a barely internet optimistic impression at +1.
Bike Lanes and Provincial Intervention
On this survey, we additionally requested some questions on bike lanes and the provincial authorities’s new coverage on oversight of municipal choice making and the removing bike lanes in municipalities it deems to influence the circulate of car site visitors on main roads.
For context, once we ask folks what their major mode of journey is of their group, 68% of Ontarians say they get round by automobile or truck, 18% by public transit, 9% stroll, 4% by taxi or Uber, and a pair of% by bike.
These in Toronto are more likely to depend on public transit than these in different components of the province, together with within the GTHA.
There’s additionally a powerful correlation between mode of journey and vote intention. Amongst those that get round their group primarily by automobile or truck, 48% would vote PC at present in contrast with 22% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.
Amongst those that get round primarily by public transit, 38% would vote Liberal, 27% PC, and 20% NDP.
Relating to driving a motorcycle, about 1 in 3 Ontarians say they usually or sometimes experience a motorcycle and share the highway with automobiles. In Toronto, that quantity rises to 42%. Nearly half of Ontarians say they by no means experience a motorcycle and share the highway with automobiles.
Relating to the provincial authorities’s new coverage in direction of bike lanes – which we describe as a “new proposed law that would require municipalities to get provincial approval to install new bike lanes in any Ontario municipality and would prohibit new separated lanes if infrastructure interferes with existing vehicle traffic”, 37% say they’re very or considerably aware of the coverage. 1 in 4 Ontarians have by no means heard about it. In whole 76% are conscious of the proposal.
Once we ask whether or not they suppose it’s a good suggestion or a foul thought, 25% suppose it’s a good suggestion, 30% suppose it’s an appropriate thought, 28% suppose its a foul thought whereas 17% are not sure.
We don’t discover a lot regional variation on response. Most present PC supporters suppose the concept is sweet or acceptable. Solely 12% of PC supporters suppose it’s a foul thought.
About 1 in 4 Ontarians suppose that stopping new bike lanes or eradicating bike lanes from main roads will ease site visitors congestion quite a bit. One other 41% suppose it is going to assist a bit of. These in Toronto are 5-points extra prone to suppose it is going to ease site visitors quite a bit than Ontarians on common.
Even if the provincial govenment’s proposal extra assist than resistance, public opinion is extra divided with regards to bike lanes extra typically. 41% suppose they’re important for security and supply mandatory alternate options to automobile journey whereas 38% suppose they contribute to site visitors congestion and needs to be extra strategically place. 20% don’t have a view both approach.
It’s clear bike lanes are an successfully political wedge, particularly for the reason that PCs are just about alone on the aspect of eradicating them whereas the opposition events are all collectively on the aspect of motorbike lanes being good.
What about these $200 rebate cheques?
7 in 10 Ontarians suppose the proposal to ship a $200 cheque to each grownup and little one in Ontario is both a good suggestion (46%) or an appropriate thought (26%) with 21% considering it’s a foul thought.
Assist for the rebate cheques is highest in Toronto and amongst youthful Ontarians. Solely 10% of PC supporters suppose it’s a foul thought.
When ask folks whether or not it’s higher to make use of the $3 billion the rebate cheques are estimated to price on the rebate cheques or to enhance public providers like healthcare or schooling, there’s a transparent {split} in opinion. 48% suppose the cash needs to be used to enhance public providers whereas 43% suppose it needs to be used for the rebate cheques.
There are some attention-grabbing splits by age. These aged 18 to 29 and people aged 45 to 59 usually tend to favor the rebate cheques whereas seniors and millennials favor the cash for use on enhancing public providers. Curiously, 1 in 3 of those that presently assist the PC Social gathering suppose the cash needs to be used to enhance public providers moderately than for the rebate cheques.
The Upshot
The PC Social gathering continues to guide by a large margin throughout the province. Though Premier Ford’s private numbers and his authorities’s approval ranking are down, the celebration stays properly positioned to be re-elected largely due to the {split} throughout the opposition events.
The provincial authorities’s efforts to alleviate site visitors and tackle the price of dwelling are typically properly obtained, particularly among the many celebration’s assist base. Whereas folks aren’t enthusasiatic in regards to the bike lane coverage and never everybody thinks sending $200 cheques to all Ontarians is an efficient use of the cash, the PCs proceed to deal with the considerations of its core viewers and in consequence has stored them loyal and supportive of the Premier and the PC Social gathering.
Methodology
The survey was performed with 998 eligible voters in Ontario from October 31 to November 5, 2024.
A random pattern of panelists had been invited to finish the survey from a set of companion panels primarily based on the Lucid trade platform. These companions are sometimes double opt-in survey panels, blended to handle out potential skews within the information from a single supply.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random pattern of the identical measurement is +/- 3.1%, 19 occasions out of 20.
The info had been weighted in accordance with census information to make sure that the pattern matched Ontario’s inhabitants in accordance with age, gender, academic attainment, and area. Totals could not add as much as 100 resulting from rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Information Inc.
Abacus Information follows the CRIC Public Opinion Analysis Requirements and Disclosure Necessities that may be discovered right here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/requirements/
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