Mark Buckshon
Ontario Construction News staff writer
OTTAWA – After a tough 2025 that saw new home sales drop well below historical norms, Ottawa’s housing sector is stepping into 2026 with a blend of caution and determination.
At the Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA) “Hello 2026, Goodbye 2025” event, speakers illustrated a market with solid underlying factors-like population growth and stability-that are currently hindered by a psychological barrier of consumer doubt.
This annual forecast event, held in early February, featured insights from Cheryl Rice of PMA Brethour Realty Group, David Coletto of Abacus Data, and Francis Cortellino of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
Cheryl Rice
Cheryl Rice, president of PMA Brethour, shared that 2025 was a “disappointment” for many who were hopeful for recovery. The year concluded with just 3,426 new home sales, about 23 percent lower than the ten-year average.
“Confidence remained the key constraint,” Rice told the audience. “While affordability improved, confidence never really caught up.”
This sluggish trend has carried into the new year. Rice noted that January 2026 recorded only 246 new home sales-a drop of 29 percent compared to last January and the lowest total for January in over ten years, excluding 2023. She blamed this slow start on both harsh winter conditions and ongoing economic worries.
However, Rice predicted some stabilization ahead. She expects around 3,500 new home sales for 2026, with an optimistic outlook of hitting 3,800 if builders ramp up releases.
The year “2026 will reward disciplined builders who continue to align supply, pricing, and product with real absorption,” Rice mentioned. She pointed out that inventory has gone beyond 3,000 homes for the first time since 2019, leading to a balanced market where buyers have more options and bargaining power.
David Coletto
David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, discussed the psychological challenges affecting the market. He suggested that consumers have transitioned from a “scarcity mindset” (worrying about not having enough) to a “precarity mindset”-a paralyzing fear of uncertainty.
Coletto highlighted events like Donald Trump’s re-election and subsequent tariff threats alongside fears about AI taking jobs as major contributors to this anxiety.
“The fundamental unmet need of the consumer in this city right now is reassurance,” Coletto said. “They need to know it’s going to be okay.”
His research indicated that 70 percent of Canadians are postponing significant life choices like buying a home due to financial worries. Interestingly enough, he observed a paradox where people are cutting back on big purchases such as homes while still spending on things like dining out as a way to cope.
He advised builders focus on minimizing risk for buyers. “If you can give people agency… that’s a power no one else can take away,” he stated while suggesting marketing strategies shift toward providing stability and certainty in these unpredictable times.
Rental market: The end of “Field of Dreams” era
A notable change is also happening in Ottawa’s rental market. Francis Cortellino from CMHC cautioned that the era where “if you build it, they will come” is coming to an end.
Francis Cortellino
Following years marked by record-low vacancy rates due to high international migration levels; now there’s an influx in supply just as demand begins to decline. Cortellino remarked that international migration into Ontario has seen significant decreases while Ottawa currently has an unprecedented count of 11,000 rental units being built.
“We expect the vacancy rate to continue rising in 2026,” Cortellino stated.
Cortellino pointed out that newly constructed purpose-built rental units are commanding steep rents-often between $3.50 and $4.00 per square foot-which may be hard to absorb given diminishing demand. Vacancy rates for recently built apartments have already climbed around 8.5 percent in some areas as tenants grapple with budget limits.
“Developers told us that last year they were [seeing] low rent growth in the newly built segment because there’s a lot of competition out there,” Cortellino explained further. He recommended landlords put significantly more effort into marketing strategies and incentives aimed at attracting tenants throughout 2026.
No matter these short-term hurdles; however; optimism prevailed at this event concerning long-term prospects. Updated growth forecasts indicate Ottawa’s population could hit approximately 680,000 by 2051; meaning around up to250 ,000 new homes will need construction over next twenty-five years.
“Our fundamentals are strong,”Rice concluded.“Success in 2026 comes down to… affordability , pricing discipline , clarity , and execution.”
Source link
“Our fundamentals are strong,”Rice concluded.“Success in 2026 comes down to… affordability , pricing discipline , clarity , and execution.”
Source link
