For Canadians who are concerned about Quebec’s alleged overwhelming impact on our nation’s politics, I bring news they might see as positive: that phase seems to be gradually winding down.
According to the latest projections from Statistics Canada, by 2050 – just 24 years from now – Quebecers will make up less than 20 percent of Canada’s population (between 18.1 percent and 19.1 percent, to be specific).
Although Quebec’s number of seats in the House of Commons cannot dip below the current 78 due to a constitutional change in 2022, provinces experiencing stronger population growth will gain more MPs, which means Quebec’s political clout will inevitably diminish.
What’s happening?
In Quebec, like in other areas across the country, the birthrate has plummeted to an all-time low. In 2024, for the first time ever in the province’s history, deaths will outnumber births. This ongoing trend means that immigration will be the only way for the population to grow. Yet, the Legault government is against increasing immigration levels that could sustain growth in the province.
The consequence of this shortsighted approach is that Quebec’s population will likely remain at around 9 million until at least 2050.
Currently leading in polls, the Parti Québécois aims to cut immigration even further. If they form the next government with such a strict agenda, it could lead to a decline in Quebec’s population. Politically speaking, this isn’t surprising; a drop in Quebec’s political influence aligns with PQ’s separatist goals.
Demographics aren’t the only factor contributing to Quebec’s waning influence within Canada unless there are significant shifts in provincial politics. While Quebeckers haven’t voted for separation from Canada through a referendum, their attitudes seem increasingly detached. During Trump’s presidency, being part of Canada may have served as protection against his absurd threats; however, “les Québécois” seem less engaged with our country’s development than at any point I can remember.
Quebec’s political leaders don’t spend much time interacting with their colleagues in Ottawa or other provinces unless specific issues arise. This leads to many politicians nationwide lacking a solid understanding of how Quebec fits into Canada’s diversity. Furthermore, attracting skilled French-speaking individuals from Quebec into federal roles remains an ongoing struggle often voiced about Ottawa.
In 2021, Justin Trudeau chose a Governor General who doesn’t speak French-an appointment that would’ve drawn considerable criticism in past decades across both regions. There are pressures coming from people like Alberta’s premier pushing for Supreme Court judges who can’t communicate in one of our official languages (guess which one?).
Due to this absence of leadership on a national scale and because of French Canada’s relative decline over time, fewer Canadians see official bilingualism as beneficial for our nation. A Léger poll conductedin2024 indicated that while70percentof Quebeckers viewbilingualism positivelyonly35percentof Canadiansoutside Quebec sharethat sentiment. The prime minister’sexcited reinterpretationof Canadianhistorydoesnotsolve today’ s alarming reality.
The votes cast by Quebeckerswerecriticalin Mark Carney ’s election win lastyear. But instances where Quebec exerts significant influenceon Canada ’sfederalgovernmentwillbecome increasingly rareand infrequent.
Withhighimmigration rates occurring outsideof Quebec, thecountryisrapidlychanging. In2050, itwillhavealmost49millionpeople, manyofwhomare recent immigrantswithlittleknowledgeoffrench and understandablyminimalattachmentto Canada’ sbilingualidentity.
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Sadly , unless Quebeckers take firm actionsreversethese demographic andpolitical trends , theyandother Canadians risk becoming distant strangers. Sharingthe same vast landbut separatedinrealityifnotinlawwithpeople barelytaking notice.
André Pratte, a former chairofthe Québec Liberal Party’ spolicy committee workswiththestrategic advisoryfirm Catalyze4.
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