Native NewsOntario Election
Printed Feb 10, 2025 • 5 minute learn
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Will Doug Ford’s snap election gamble repay? Ontario voters will resolve on election day on Feb. 27. Photograph by TONY CALDWELL /Postmedia Information
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If voters purchase Doug Ford’s pitch that he’s the most effective Ontario chief to tackle U.S. tariff threats, native analysts are divided on whether or not his snap election gamble will repay with a stronger majority authorities for his Progressive Conservatives.
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And will it result in extra voters hitting the polls on Feb. 27?
“He (Ford) should send Trump a bottle of Ontario wine in thanks, because I think Trump will have done more to help Doug Ford get re-elected than anybody else,” mentioned Lloyd Brown-John, College of Windsor professor emeritus of political science.
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Though Ford had been teasing an early election for practically a 12 months, his resolution to name it final week arrived simply as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian items, putting as many as 500,000 Ontario jobs in danger.
Ford kicked off his election marketing campaign in Windsor West — the one driving this facet of London that isn’t represented by his Tory occasion — sporting a ball cap emblazoned with the catch phrase: “Canada Is Not For Sale.” With the Ambassador Bridge as his backdrop — considered one of North America’s busiest border crossings linking the neighbouring nations — Ford despatched a frank message to voters that he was prepared to guard Ontario’s manufacturing and automotive pursuits.
“I think he captured a widespread sentiment of a very rising Canadian nationalism,” mentioned Brown-John.
“I don’t think we ever appreciate how deep the nationalism runs in this country. He identified it with that silly hat. Symbolism is so important in politics.
“I think that whether the other parties can chew away at him on the other real issues, such as health care, education, environment, and so forth, that’s not going to make a lot of headway in this election.”
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Whereas Canada has since secured a 30-day reprieve from Trump’s tariffs, if voters proceed to see Ford because the protector of Ontario’s financial system, he is not going to solely clinch a 3rd time period, however might additionally achieve extra seats.
The take a look at now could be whether or not the dicey geopolitical local weather will seize the eye of voters and doubtlessly ship extra to the polls on Feb. 27.
“I think the more that Trump threatens us with tariffs, the more people are going to say, ‘I have to get out and vote,’ and I suspect we will see a better voter turnout than anticipated,” mentioned Brown-John.
“The question for me is: Will Doug Ford lose some seats?
“Now, if he gains a seat or two, then he has been vindicated, but if he loses some seats, then it was bad judgment on his part.”
For months, polling has proven the Ontario PCs sustaining a commanding lead over their essential challengers, the NDP and the Liberals. A current Ipsos ballot positioned Ford’s PCs 26 factors above Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals.
Nonetheless, voter turnout in Ontario has dwindled during the last two provincial elections.
The 2022 election noticed the bottom participation on file, with simply 44 per cent of eligible voters casting a poll — dropping beneath the earlier low of 48.2 per cent in 2018.
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“The campaigns themselves haven’t really been able to define a ballot-box issue that can, I think, motivate people to come out to the polls,” mentioned College of Windsor political science professor Lydia Miljan, who is just not satisfied Trump’s tariffs will mobilize extra Ontarians to solid a vote.
Earlier than Trump, well being care was reported the highest concern for 40 per cent of Ontarians contemplating voting within the upcoming election. Different issues embrace the price of residing, decrease taxes, the financial system, and job safety.
The dealing with of U.S. relations ranked a lot decrease, with 14 per cent of Ontarians calling it a high election concern.
“It’s not a change election,” mentioned Miljan, including that it seems “inevitable there will be another Conservative government.
“People come out more when there’s either a lot of anger towards the government, specifically, or a sense that their time is up and there’s somebody new and exciting coming forward,” she mentioned.
“I think that’s one of the challenges for both the NDP and the Liberals — their leaders haven’t really caught on in a way that that seems to have excited the electorate.”
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A current Ipsos ballot reported practically half of Ontarians consider that Ford would proceed to be the most effective premier. Liberal chief Crombie trailed in that ballot, with 26 per cent approval, adopted by the NDP’s Marit Stiles at 19 per cent, and the Inexperienced Get together’s Mike Schreiner at 10 per cent.
With an election simply three weeks away, Miljan worries that different events are already getting into the brief marketing campaign at an obstacle, with candidates but to be named in key ridings.
As of Thursday, the Ontario Liberal Get together had nonetheless not introduced candidates for the Windsor West and Essex ridings. The Inexperienced Get together of Ontario had additionally not named candidates for Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh, or Essex.
“If you have trouble fielding a candidate, it tells me that you have trouble fielding volunteers,” mentioned Miljan.
“It’s really the volunteers that are at the front lines in terms of getting out the vote. So, there’s a potential pool of voters that might not be accessed by the other parties, and so that could also suppress voter turnout.”
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In the long run, the election shall be determined by the problems that matter most to voters, and the candidate they belief to deal with them. The outcomes may even hinge on how efficiently Canada counters looming tariffs by addressing Trump’s calls for to curb fentanyl trafficking and unlawful border crossings.
“We’re in such an odd time right now, and there’s so much going on,” mentioned Miljan.
“People are also looking at the (federal) Liberal leadership race, and the potential timing of a federal campaign.
“I think people like me who are interested in politics are going to come out to vote, regardless of how many elections we have to vote in.
“But it’s more about whether there is too much noise that people are like — ‘I’m just overwhelmed’.”
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