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A current examine estimated the tariff might trigger Canadian power exports to the U.S. to say no by as a lot as 22 per cent
Revealed Nov 18, 2024 • Final up to date 6 hours in the past • 5 minute learn
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. Photograph by David Bloom/Postmedia/File
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OTTAWA — Alberta’s power sector, which heralded Donald Trump’s shock 2016 presidential victory as a “huge win” for the province’s economic system, was slower to uncork the champagne bottles final week after Trump received a second, non-consecutive time period on a extra protectionist platform.
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Ex-Alberta premier Jason Kenney informed the Ontario Chronicle that Trump’s proposed international 10 per cent tariff on all imports is the massive temper killer this time round.
“Everyone is rightly concerned about the tariff,” Kenney stated in an interview.
Trump nonetheless hasn’t stated whether or not he’ll exempt Canadian oil and gasoline from the tariff and has little incentive to indicate his hand as he’s promised to pursue a brand new spherical of commerce negotiations with Canada and Mexico.
A current College of Calgary examine estimated that the tariff might trigger Canadian power exports to the U.S. to say no by as a lot as 22 per cent, with losses concentrated in Alberta and the opposite western provinces.
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Alberta shipped C$133.6 billion value of power merchandise to the U.S. final 12 months, accounting for greater than 80 per cent of its complete cross-border exports.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith informed reporters final week that she was “not worried” about Trump slapping tariffs on the province’s power merchandise however nonetheless seems to be hedging her bets by courting state-level officers.
On Thursday, Smith inked an power safety pact with a dozen U.S. governors, all members of Trump’s Republican Celebration. Smith and her co-signatories pledged to pursue power insurance policies that promoted decrease power prices and elevated reliability for shoppers.
Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry fired what appeared to be a warning shot at Trump in an announcement welcoming Smith into the coalition.
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“I welcome… the insights (Smith) will bring as the leader from a fellow energy-producing province, that like my state, is under a federal system of government where national imperatives are not always aligned with state or provincial interests,” Landry wrote.
Smith spokesperson Erin Allin informed the Ontario Chronicle that she plans to pitch the opposite Canadian first ministers on the pact.
“(Smith) will be raising the coalition and its mandate at future meetings with her federal and provincial counterparts here in Canada,” Allin informed the Ontario Chronicle in an e-mail.
Smith stated in an interview on Friday that she’ll cope with power companions within the U.S. unilaterally till the Trudeau authorities agrees to cancel the deliberate federal emissions cap.
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“If the federal government is insistent upon going down that pathway, we’ll take care of our own interests,” stated Smith.
She added in a separate interview this weekend that she was inspired by Trump’s alternative of ex-North Dakota governor Doug Burgum as his administration’s inside secretary and power czar.
“One of the things (Burgum) has realized,” in his former function, “is that getting pipelines built requires coordination across multiple (levels), including especially on federal lands,” stated Smith.
Smith say she will probably be in Washington, D.C. for Trump’s inauguration in January.
A number of consultants, together with Trump’s ex-commerce secretary Wilbur Ross, have stated that he’s prone to exempt Canadian power from the worldwide tariff as a result of he’s additionally promised to slash gasoline costs and electrical energy bills.
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Nevertheless, analysts additionally count on Trump’s return to workplace to coincide with a worldwide oil glut, diminishing Canada’s potential to play the power card in renewed commerce negotiations.
Kenney says that Canadian negotiators might nonetheless sway Trump by tying continental power manufacturing to overarching safety issues.
“Trump is very focused on American energy independence,” stated Kenney. “And when his team talks about that they are implicitly including Canada in the concept.”
“When it comes to U.S. security interests, almost nothing is more important than access to Canadian energy,” stated Kenney, pointing to outgoing President Joe Biden’s draining of the U.S. strategic oil reserve.
The reserve now sits at its lowest stage for the reason that early Nineteen Eighties, after Biden tapped into it repeatedly to defend American shoppers from a worldwide oil disaster triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Kenney additionally stated he wouldn’t rule out the revival of the derailed Keystone XL pipeline growth with Trump again in workplace.
“All the pre-construction work and regulatory permitting has basically already been done,” stated Kenney. “It’s now a question of raising the necessary debt and equity to finance the project.”
Trump gave Keystone XL the inexperienced mild instantly after taking workplace in January 2017.
Nevertheless, simply 1.2 miles of pipeline was constructed on the U.S. facet throughout Trump’s first time period, after the undertaking was derailed by a barrage of authorized and regulatory challenges.
In July 2020, the conservative-majority U.S. Supreme Court docket upheld a decrease court docket resolution revoking an environmental allow wanted to maneuver the undertaking ahead.
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Biden cancelled Keystone XL on his first day in workplace. Calgary-based pipeline proprietor TC Power has since deserted the undertaking.
Kenney stated that an Alberta-U.S. authorities partnership would seemingly be essential to derisk the undertaking, as potential non-public sector consumers have been scared away by regulatory uncertainty on each side of the border.
In the meantime, the Trudeau authorities seems to be sticking to its decarbonization agenda following Trump’s victory.
Federal Surroundings Minister Steven Guilbeault has stated that Trump’s election received’t change his plan to cap oil and gasoline emissions to 35 per cent of 2019 ranges by 2030, regardless of pushback from ex-colleague and former federal finance minister Invoice Morneau.
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Morneau stated in a current tv interview that he’d be “very careful” about capping emissions, given the “context of the broader North American relationship.”
“We need to think about whether we focus on energy security in a way that makes us clearly an important part of the U.S. (strategy),” stated Morneau.
“Is it really the right time for caps on emissions?”
Ontario Chronicle
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