By Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN
(CNN) — Individuals heard starkly completely different messages about Donald Trump and Kamala Harris within the closing days of the 2024 election, in response to The Breakthrough, a CNN polling mission that tracked what common Individuals truly heard, learn and noticed in regards to the presidential nominees all through the overall election marketing campaign.
Within the closing pre-election survey, fielded from November 1 by 4, the only phrase most related to Trump’s profitable marketing campaign was “garbage.” That included references to a number of tales: the racist joke about Puerto Rico informed by a comic at Trump’s Madison Sq. Backyard rally, the previous president’s personal remark that the US was “like a garbage can for the world” and Trump’s seizing of a garbled comment from President Joe Biden to carry a information convention from inside a rubbish truck whereas carrying a yellow security vest after which rallying in the identical apparel with supporters.
The most typical phrases used in regards to the closing days of the Harris marketing campaign have been, in contrast, remarkably generic: “campaign,” “rally” and “ad.”
Essentially the most generally used phrase about Trump within the closing week was “garbage truck,” versus “middle class” for Harris – however mentions of the previous have been roughly twice as frequent because the latter, suggesting comparatively little consensus in regards to the closing narrative of the vp’s marketing campaign.
The info doesn’t essentially supply a clear-cut story about Trump’s path to victory, both. It could, the truth is, recommend some limits as to how a lot a siloed information atmosphere can have an effect on vote alternative in an election the place partisans usually diverged of their recounting of present occasions and the place roughly 8 in 10 voters mentioned in exit polling that they made up their minds someday previous to September.
However the mission, carried out by SSRS and Verasight on behalf of a analysis crew from CNN, Georgetown College and the College of Michigan, supplies one account of how the nation skilled the marketing campaign. Within the abbreviated race between Harris and Trump, the analysis discovered, the only presidential debate between the 2 nominees in September was maybe the final marketing campaign occasion to attract really common consideration.
What additionally stands out within the charts over time is the shortage of a sustained narrative about both candidate. That partially echoes 2016, when researchers discovered that “there was no single persistent negative theme that emerged when we asked people daily what they had read, seen or heard about Trump.” That, Gallup’s Frank Newport wrote 4 years in the past, “reflected his campaign’s ability to define news coverage through attention-getting tactics that defied existing norms of political decorum, and the inability of the opposing campaign … to come up with a powerful negative narrative to use against him.”
However the parallels to 2016 are removed from absolute. In 2024, whereas no single story caught to Trump, the overarching phrase “lie” did, reaching the highest 5 phrases related to him in all however one week of the election’s closing two months. And notably, whereas impressions of Hillary Clinton in 2016 have been constantly dominated by tales about her emails, no subject – optimistic or detrimental – stuffed the same position for Harris in 2024.
On common, over the 20 weeks The Breakthrough survey was fielded this 12 months, roughly 76% of US adults mentioned weekly they’d heard at the least some information about Trump. Within the 15 full weeks of information following Harris’ entry into the race, a barely smaller share – about 71% on common – mentioned they’d heard one thing about her. There was much less of a disparity within the closing week of the marketing campaign when roughly three-quarters of Individuals reported studying, listening to or seeing at the least one thing about every candidate – 76% for Trump and 74% for Harris.
These numbers additionally recommend that the scope of the general public’s consideration truly narrowed because the calendar moved additional into the autumn. In July, the share who’d heard information about Trump topped out at 89% following the primary assassination try towards him, whereas the share listening to about Biden peaked at 84% within the wake of his presidential debate efficiency and subsequent choice to depart the race. The share with one thing to say about Harris by no means rose increased than the 77% she hit in mid-August.
That sample – a peak focus throughout the summer season and a decline throughout the election’s closing days – additionally stands out from the previous two elections. In 2020, the share of voters reporting they’d heard information about Trump and Biden rose modestly however largely steadily all through the autumn; consideration in 2016 was extra sporadic however peaked in mid-October.
The Breakthrough mission additionally tracked the sentiment of survey responses – that’s, not the sentiments Individuals expressed in regards to the candidates personally, however whether or not the phrases and tone they used to border what they’d heard tended to be extra optimistic or detrimental. Within the first months after Harris entered the race, her sentiment rating was extra optimistic than Trump’s, the ballot discovered. However that distinction largely light within the final month of the marketing campaign. Though Harris noticed a small uptick within the closing week earlier than Election Day, sentiment scores for each candidates remained nicely underneath water.
Sentiments expressed by political independents when speaking in regards to the information surrounding Trump have been detrimental all through the marketing campaign. Their sentiment when discussing what they’d heard about Harris, which was near impartial in the beginning of her candidacy, declined modestly all through the autumn, undercutting her benefit over Trump on that metric.
CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta and Edward Wu contributed to this report.
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